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Home > Education and Museum > CCBS Handbook - Unit Root Testing to Help Model Building
 

CCBS Handbook - Unit Root Testing to Help Model Building

Handbook No 22
by Lavan Mahadeva and Paul Robinson

Central bank economists have to understand and forecast macroeconomic time series. A serious problem that they face is that those series are often trended or affected by persistent innovations to the process. To try to get round this problem, or at least to understand its possible effects, it is common to test whether series are stationary. These tests are often called unit-root tests.1 In this handbook we discuss such testing. A model-builder should use appropriate econometric techniques. In order to choose between alternative estimators, the model-builder needs to think carefully about the relevant theory and the available data. But economic theory is rarely unambiguous in its implications for the data generating process. Subjecting the data to pre-estimation testing can help to gauge the relevance of different theories and possible data problems.

Key Resources

Unit Root Testing
Complete handbook
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Unit Root Testing
Spanish language version
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Data used for testing
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