Skip to main content
  • This website sets cookies on your device. To find out more about how we use cookies please refer to our Privacy and Cookie Policy. By continuing to use the site, we’ll assume that you are content for us to set these on your device.
  • Close
Home > Education and Museum > Joint Research Paper - No. 3 - Money-based inflation risk indicator for Russia: a structural dynamic factor model approach
 

Joint Research Paper - No. 3 - Money-based inflation risk indicator for Russia: a structural dynamic factor model approach

18 April 2013
Joint Research Paper - No.3
by Elena Deryugina and Alexey Ponomarenko

The authors estimate a dynamic factor model for the cross-section of monetary and price indicators for Russia.  They extract the common part of the dataset's fluctuations and decompose it into structural shocks.  One of the shocks identified has empirical properties (in terms of impulse response functions) that are fully in line with the theoretically expected relationship between money growth and inflation, confirming that the process identified has the capacity for economic interpretation.  Based on the finding, recent inflationary developments in Russia are decomposed into those that are associated with changes in monetary stance and other shorter-lived shocks.  The analysis in this paper is based on the course material taught in the CCBS course: 'Applied Bayesian Econometrics for central bankers'. 
Share