External MPC Unit Discussion Papers

These papers report on research carried out by, or under the supervision of, the external members of the Monetary Policy Committee and their economic staff. Papers are made available as soon as practicable in order to share research results and stimulate further discussion of key policy issues. Their publication is authorised by the MPC member who commissioned the research. However, the views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not represent the views of the Bank of England or necessarily the views of external members of the Monetary Policy Committee.

​March 2012	​Discussion Paper 35 Demographics, house prices and mortgage design David Miles
October 2011	Discussion Paper 34 How flexible can inflation targeting be and still work? (620k) Adam Posen and Ken Kuttner
September 2011	Discussion Paper No 33 Banking crises and recessions: what can leading indicators tell us? (557k) By Matthew Corder and Martin Weale
May 2011	Discussion Paper No 32 Financial protectionism: the first tests (466k) By Andrew K Rose and Tomasz Wieladek
April 2011	Discussion Paper No 31: revised and expanded version Optimal Bank Capital (860k) By David Miles, Jing Yang and Gilberto Marcheggiano Optimal Bank Capital (669k) Original version published January 2011
September 2010	Discussion Paper No 30 Macro-Economic Stability and the Real Interest Rate: A Cross-Country Analysis (426k) By Charlotta Groth and Fabrizio Zampolli
February 2010	Discussion Paper No 29 Risk Heterogeneity and Credit Supply: Evidence from the Mortgage Market (604k) By Timothy Besley, Neil Meads and Paolo Surico
July 2009	Discussion Paper No 28 International Comovements, Business Cycle and Inflation: a Historical Perspective (319k) By Haroon Mumtaz, Saverio Simonelli and Paolo Surico
June 2009	Discussion Paper No 27 The Global Credit Boom: Challenges for Macroeconomics and Policy (592k) Michael Hume and Andrew Sentance
December 2008	Discussion Paper No 26 Monetary Policies and Low-Frequency Manifestations of the Quantity Theory (1.3Mb) Thomas J Sargent and Paolo Surico
October 2008	Discussion Paper No 25 Household External Finance and Consumption (388k) Timothy Besley, Neil Meads and Paolo Surico (An earlier version of this paper was published on 18 February alongside a speech by Timothy Besley)
July 2008	Discussion Paper No 24 The Causal Relationship between Inflation and Inflation Expectations in the United Kingdom (470k) Roger Kelly
March 2008	Discussion Paper No 23 Time-Varying Yield Curve Dynamics and Monetary Policy (485k) Haroon Mumtaz and Paolo Surico
February 2008	Discussion Paper No. 22 Has trade with China affected UK inflation? (399k) Tracy Wheeler
January 2008	Discussion Paper No. 21 The Behaviour of the MPC: Gradualism, Inaction and Individual Voting Patterns(607k) Charlotta Groth and Tracy Wheeler
December 2007	Discussion Paper No. 20 Insiders versus Outsiders in Monetary Policy-Making(162k) Timothy Besley, Neil Meads and Paolo Surico News Release
December 2007	Discussion Paper No. 19 Monetary Policy and Data Uncertainty: A Case Study of Distribution, Hotels and Catering Growth(280k) Lavan Mahadeva
October 2007	Discussion Paper No. 18 Vector Autoregression Analysis and the Great Moderation(252k) Luca Benati and Paolo Surico
April 2007	Discussion Paper No. 17 The Impact of the Recent Migration from Eastern Europe on the UK Economy(300k) David G. Blanchflower, Jumana Saleheen and Chris Shadforth
Nov 2006	Discussion Paper No.16 Diverging Trends in Aggregate and Firm–Level Volatility in the UK (134k) by Miles Parker
Dec 2005	Discussion Paper No.15 Do Financial Markets React to Bank of England Communication?(345k) Rachel Reeves and Michael Sawicki
May 2005	Discussion Paper No.14 National Accounts Revisions and Output Gap Estimates in a Model of Monetary Policy with Data Uncertainty(342k) Lavan Mahadeva and Alex Muscatelli
May 2003	Discussion Paper No.13 UK Consumers' Habits(465k) Ryan Banerjee and Nicoletta Batini
April 2003	Discussion Paper No.12 Measuring The UK Short-Run NAIRU(383k) Nicoletta Batini and Jennifer Greenslade
October 2002	Discussion Paper No.11 The Exchange Rate and Inflation in the UK(297k) Amit Kara and Edward Nelson
October 2002	Discussion Paper No.10 Macroeconomic Policy Rules in Theory and in Practice (120k) Christopher Allsopp
April 2002	Discussion Paper No.9 The Pricing Behaviour of UK Firms(236k) Nicoletta Batini, Brian Jackson and Stephen Nickell
March 2002	Discussion Paper No.8 Too Much Too Soon: Instability and Indeterminacy with Forward-Looking Rules (237k) Nicoletta Batini and Joseph Pearlman
February 2002	Discussion Paper No.7 The Future of Macroeconomic Policy in the European Union (123k) Christopher Allsopp
October 2001	Discussion Paper No.6 The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited(73k) Nicoletta Batini and Edward Nelson
October 2001	Discussion Paper No.5 Monetary Policy for an Open Economy: An Alternative Framework with Optimising Agents and Sticky Prices (649k) Bennett T. McCallum and Edward Nelson
May 2001	Discussion Paper No.4 A Disaggregated Approach To Modelling UK Labour Force Participation (94k) By Joanne Cutler And Kenny Turnbull
March 2001	Discussion Paper No.3 Core Inflation in the UK (451k) Joanne Cutler
November 2000	Discussion Paper No.2 Inflation Dynamics and the Labour Share in the UK (181k) Nicoletta Batini, Brian Jackson and Stephen Nickell
September 2000	Discussion Paper No.1 Monetary Conditions Indices for the UK: A Survey (492k) Nicoletta Batini and Kenny Turnbull