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Home > Publications > Numerical Parameters for Inflation Report Probability Distributions for CPI Inflation and GDP Growth
 

Numerical Parameters for Inflation Report Probability Distributions for CPI Inflation and GDP Growth

Projections | Fan chart data

August 2014

There are considerable uncertainties surrounding the projections of GDP growth and CPI inflation published in the Inflation Report. This uncertainty is reflected by the presentation of projections as fan charts. The fan charts are derived from the MPC's projected probability distributions for the annual rate of CPI inflation and four-quarter growth rate of GDP.

The probability distribution tables provide, for the latest Inflation Report forecast, five numerical parameters (mode, median, mean, uncertainty and skew) from the MPC's projected probability distributions for the annual rate of CPI inflation and four-quarter growth rate of GDP. The tables also show the probabilities for various outcomes for inflation and GDP. They complement the information contained in Section 5 of the August 2014 Report. Tables are provided for both the projections conditioned on market interest rates and those conditioned on constant interest rates.

Key Resources

Probability Distribution Table for CPI Inflation and GDP Growth Projections - August 2014
Download Excel Spreadsheet
Probability Distribution Tables for Projections from August 2002 
Parameters for MPC Unemployment Rate Projections from August 2013
Download Excel Spreadsheet
Parameters for MPC CPI Inflation Projections from February 2004
Download Excel Spreadsheet
Parameters for MPC GDP Growth Projections August 1997 - August 2007
Download Excel Spreadsheet
Parameters for MPC GDP Growth Projections based on Bank Estimates of Past Growth from August 2007
Download Excel Spreadsheet
Parameters for MPC GDP Growth Backcasts from November 2007
Download Excel Spreadsheet
Parameters for Bank of England RPIX Inflation Projections February 1993 - May 1997
Download Excel Spreadsheet
Parameters for MPC RPIX Inflation Projections August 1997 - February 2004
Download Excel Spreadsheet
The MPC's Fan Chart
Inflation Report, May 2002, pages 48-49
Download PDF

Assessing the MPC's Fan Charts
By Rob Elder, George Kapetanios, Tim Taylor and Tony Yates,
Quarterly Bulletin, Autumn 2005, pages 326-48
Download PDF

 

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