Probability Distribution Tables
Probability distribution tables prior to August 2002 are available in the respective Inflation Reports.
There are considerable uncertainties surrounding the projections of GDP growth and CPI inflation published in the Inflation Report. This uncertainty is reflected by the presentation of projections as fan charts. The fan charts are derived from the MPC's projected probability distributions for the annual rate of CPI inflation and four-quarter growth rate of GDP.
The probability distribution tables provide, for each Inflation Report forecast, five numerical parameters (mode, median, mean, uncertainty and skew) from the MPC's projected probability distributions for the annual rate of CPI inflation and four-quarter growth rate of GDP. The tables also show the probabilities for various outcomes for inflation and GDP. They complement the information contained in Section 5 of the Report. Tables are provided for both the projections conditioned on market interest rates and those conditioned on constant interest rates.