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Home > News and Publications > Quarterly Bulletin 2016 Q1

Quarterly Bulletin 2016 Q1

18 March 2016

​Complete issue
  |  News Release

Topical articles

 ​How could a shock to growth in China affect growth in the United Kingdom?
By Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi and Kate Stratford

This article assesses how a shock to Chinese growth could affect the UK economy using an empirical model of the world economy that exploits the historical comovement between international business cycles. We find that a 1% slowing in China is likely to reduce UK GDP by around 0.1%. This impact arises mainly from the increasingly important role of China in the global economy - that is, via the United Kingdom’s indirect links with China through its main trading partners.

PDF of article

 ​Wages, productivity and the changing composition of the UK workforce
By Will Abel, Rebecca Burnham and Matthew Corder​

Over the past 30 years the composition of UK employment has changed substantially - these changes have important implications for wage and productivity growth. These ‘compositional effects’ can be more prominent during times of increased labour market change and may have dragged down on wages over the past two years. The drag from compositional effects is likely to fade as the labour market normalises, pushing up on both productivity and wage growth.

PDF of article

 ​Bank of England notes: the switch to polymer
By Ronan McClintock and Roy Whymark

The Bank of England is responsible for maintaining confidence in banknotes. In meeting its banknote issuance responsibilities, the Bank aims to fully exploit innovation. The next £5, £10 and £20 banknotes will be printed on a polymer material. The switch to polymer will deliver banknotes that are more secure and better quality, and will
support confidence in banknotes in the years ahead.

PDF of article

 Capturing the City: Photography at the Bank of England
By Bryony Leventhall and Anna Spender

An exhibition at the Bank of England Museum and an Archive cataloguing project shed light on different aspects of the organisation’s history through photographs.

PDF of article

 The small bank failures of the early 1990s: another story of boom and bust
By Kushal Balluck, Artus Galiay, Gerardo Ferrara and Glenn Hoggarth

Prior to the recent global financial crisis, the Bank of England last provided emergency liquidity assistance to banks in the early 1990s. This was intended to prevent contagion from a group of small banks to larger, systemically important financial institutions. The Bank of England is now in a better position to guard against many of the vulnerabilities that led to the small banks crisis. History suggests that regulators should continually look for early warning signs of heightened risk in the financial system, such as rapid credit growth, a decline in underwriting standards and large shifts in business models.


 Recent economic and financial developments

Markets and operations
This article reviews developments in financial markets between the 2015 Q4 Quarterly Bulletin and 3 March 2016 and describes the Bank’s own operations within the Sterling Monetary Framework.

PDF of markets and operations