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The following are brief abstracts of working papers published during 1999.
You can also view the full text of working papers 23 and 24 (from 1994) and working papers since 1997 as PDF files, readable with the latest version of Adobe Acrobat (this is available free from Adobe's Website ). The working papers are listed with the most recent papers first.
Working Paper No 105
Caution and gradualism in monetary policy under uncertainty
by Ben Martin 
(163k)
This paper explores the theoretical implication of parameter uncertainty for the optimal monetary policy reaction function. The policy-maker sets the nominal interest rate to meet an inflation target in a simple dynamic model of the economy. The paper looks at how parameter uncertainty in the transmission mechanism affects the optimal nominal and real interest rate relative to the case when the parameters are known. Its chief contribution is to show that three consequences are identified: conservatism (smaller deviations of real and nominal interest rates from some neutral level in response to inflationary shocks), gradualism (increased autocorrelation in real and nominal interest rates) and caution (a smaller cumulative policy response). The paper examines the sensitivity of these effects to different specifications of the transmission mechanism; in particular the introduction of an exchange rate channel. The paper also considers situations in which a more aggressive response may be called for.
Working Paper No 104
Openness and its association with productivity growth in UK manufacturing industry
by Gavin Cameron, James Proudman and Stephen Redding (149k)
A large theoretical literature exists that suggests that differences in growth performance may be related to variations in the extent of international openness. This paper is concerned with quantifying measures of openness and examining their association with productivity growth across 19 sectors in UK manufacturing between 1970 and 1992. Using the statistical technique of discriminant analysis, sectors were sorted into groups on the basis of their measured values of openness in 1970. Sectors classified as relatively open enjoyed significantly higher rates of total factor productivity (TFP) growth between 1970 and 1992 than those classified as closed. There was a positive correlation between the growth in labour productivity and lagged values of each of the observed measures of openness. This relationship was explained by a strong relationship between lagged values of openness and TFP growth. But, there was no evidence of a positive relationship between openness and that part of labour productivity growth explained by capital accumulation.
Working Paper No 103
Inflation and real disequilibria
by Mark S Astley and Tony Yates (347k)
This paper outlines some problems with the methods often used to construct measures of real ‘disequilibria’ or ‘gaps’ (eg the output gap) and to examine their relationship with inflation. It then offers a structural vector autoregression alternative which is used to construct estimates of output, unemployment and capacity utilisation gaps. Gap estimates are constructed by summing the effects of particular structural shocks, where the shocks are identified using long-run restrictions derived from theory. The approach has four main advantages over other methods. First, it uses economics rather than statistics to construct the gaps. Second, the estimates are not contingent upon particular assumptions about the structure of the economy. Third, it does not impose a rigid causal chain running from gaps to inflation. Fourth, it permits the simultaneous construction of several gap measures and the examination of their relationship with inflation in a single framework, so that the three gap measures are internally consistent and can be used to make inferences about the structure of the economy.
Working Paper No 102
Monetary stabilisation policy in a monetary union: some simple analytics
by Andrew Brigden and Charles Nolan (193k)
This paper does two things. First it looks at some simple models of monetary decision-making in a monetary union and asks how much more variable a country's output and inflation is likely to be if it joins the union. The question is asnwered analytically, and the simple model is then calibrated. The model has few structual equations, but does allow an analysis of the relationship between output and inflation variability and certain key parameters. Any conclusions, in this respect, are likely to be sensitive to model specification. However, the paper goes on to identify a second-best issue concerning the optimal make-up of the union which is likely to be more robust: namely that only when all members of the union have the same structural parameter values, and shocks are perfectly correlated, will it be optimal for a new member to have these same structural parameter values.
Working Paper No 101
Monetary policy loss functions: two cheers for the quadratic
by Jagjit S Chadha and Philip Schellekens (264k)
The implications for optimal monetary policy of relaxing the normal assumption of a quadratic loss function are examined. Several alternative specifications are considered, but the results suggest that the convenient assumption of quadratic losses may not be that drastic.
Working Paper No 100
Money, credit and investment in the UK corporate sector
by Andrew Brigden and Paul Mizen (264k)
This paper investigates the interactions between investment, money holding and bank borrowing by private non-financial corporations (PNFCs). Long-run relationships are identified for investment, money and borrowing, and the dynamics indicate the existence of feedbacks from money and credit disequilibria onto investment. The results are considered to be consistent with the existence of a credit channel.
Working Paper No 99
Should uncertain monetary policy-makers do less?
by Ben Martin and Chris Salmon (297k)
This paper examines the empirical importance of parameter uncertainty for monetary policy-making in the United Kingdom, using a method pioneered by Brian Sack of the US Federal Reserve. Using a VAR model of the UK economy and an assumed quadratic loss function for the policy-maker, an optimal interest rate rule is calculated first ignoring parameter uncertainty, then assuming that the parameter uncertainty is given by the estimated standard errors on the VAR coefficients. These rules are compared with the estimated interest rate equation from the VAR. The optimal rule accounting for parameter uncertainty results in a less aggressive path for official interest rates than when parameter uncertainty is ignored. However, the estimates of parameter uncertainty are not so large that the optimal rule matches all the characteristics of the actual path of official rates.
Working Paper No 98
The non-linear Phillips curve and inflation forecast targeting
by Eric Schaling (182k)
This paper extends the Svensson inflation forecast targeting framework with a convex Phillips curve. An asymmetric target rule is derived, which implies a higher level of nominal interest rates than the Svensson forward-looking version of the reaction function popularised by Taylor. Extending the analysis with uncertainty about the output gap, it is found that uncertainty induces a further upward bias in nominal interest rates.
Working Paper No 97
To trim or not to trim? An application of a trimmed mean inflation estimator to the United Kingdom
by Hasan Bakhshi and Tony Yates (198k)
Although the target of monetary policy is clear, there have been suggestions that the conduct of monetary policy is improved by monitoring 'trimmed mean' inflation rates, the mean of some central portion of the distribution of price changes. This paper assesses critically the theoretical and empirical arguments for trimming, and applies the concept of the 'optimal trim' to the United Kingdom.
Working Paper No 96
Uncertainty and simple monetary policy rules - An illustration for the United Kingdom
by Simon Hall, Chris Salmon, Tony Yates and Nicoletta Batini
(149k)
This paper reports an investigation of the effects of additive and multiplicative uncertainty upon the stabilisation properties of a simple base money rule for monetary policy. Using a five-equation empirical model of the United Kingdom, it is shown that changes in the extent of additive uncertainty have no effect on the 'optimal' degree of policy responsiveness to shocks to the economy. However, it is found that policy-makers should respond by less to shocks in the face of multiplicative uncertainty, and, as multiplicative uncertainty rises, so th eoptimal degree of policy reaction falls. This accords with Brainard's (1967) theoretical analysis and could be interpreted as justifying a gradualist monetary policy.
Working Paper No 95
Price formation and transparency on the London Stock Exchange
by Victoria Saporta, Giorgio Trebeschi and Anne Vila (363k)
This paper contributes to the empirical market microstructure literature on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) by producing model-based estimates of the spread and its components. The paper applies the same approach to test for changes in the determinants of price formation following the January 1996 change in the market's publication rules. The results suggest that order-processing costs are a far more important determinant of the LSE spread than the literature has so far presumed. Consistent with existing research findings, no discernible effect of post-trade transparency on market liquidity was found.
Working Paper No 94
Asset price reactions to RPI announcements
by M A S Joyce and V Read (941k)
UK asset price reactions to RPI announcements are examined from the early 1980s up to April 1997. Announcements are decomposed into their expected and unexpected components using survey data on inflation expectations. Asset prices do not appear to respond to the expected component of announcements, consistent with the predictions of the efficient markets hypothesis. The main sensitivity to inflation news appears in government bond prices, and the results are consistent with the 1992-97 inflation targeting regime being not fully credible, though its credibility increased over time.
Working Paper No 93
Business cycles and the labour market can theory fit the facts?
by Stephen Millard, Andrew Scott and Marianne Sensier (347k)
The performance of six alternative models in accounting for UK labour market behaviour over the business cycle is examined. Models are assessed in terms of their ability to mimic actual cycle correlations and volatility, their success in replicating persistence, and their success in modelling asymmetries between expansions and downturns. Most are found to be successful in accounting for co-movements of key variables and in explaining asymmetries. But the models underpredict the volatility of employment and unemployment, produce too high a correlation between wages and employment, and do not capture the slow adjustment exhibited in the data.
Working Paper No 92
Coalition formation in international monetary poliy games
by Marion Kohler (660k)
It is well known from the analysis of monetary policy co-ordination of two countries that co-ordination often Pareto-dominates the outcome of the non-co-operative game. Hence both countries will have an incentive to form a union when it is certain that the other country will also join.
However, in an n-country model, free-riding incentives restrict the size of a stable coalition to less then n countries. Since the coalition members are bound by the union's discipline, an outsider can successfully export inflation without fearing that the insiders will try to do the same.
The formation of a large currency bloc is not sustainable since it would impose too much discipline on all participants. However, the co-existence of several smaller currency blocs may be a second-best solution to the free-riding problem of monetary policy co-ordination.
Working Paper No 91
Forward looking rules for monetary policy
by Nicoletta Batini and Andrew Haldane (264k)
This paper evaluates a class of simple policy rules that feed back from expected values of future inflation - inflation forecast-based rules. The rules are assessed by how well they perform when the economy is buffeted by a combination of shocks, whose distribution is drawn from the Bank of England forecasting model. It is shown that inflation forecast-based rules confer some real advantages: they embody explicitly monetary transmission lags; they potentially embody all information useful for predicting future inflation; and they can achieve a high degree of output smoothing. In the tests conducted these rules prove more efficient at minimising inflation and output variability than standard Taylor rules, and almost as efficient as fully optimal rules.
Working Paper No 90
Bank capital and risk taking
by Alistair Milne and Elizabeth Whalleys (330k)
Bank risk-taking and capitalisation is studied in a continuous time model with a closed form solution, assuming uncertain cash flow, random regulatory audit, and a constraint on equity issue. Capital reserves are built up towards a desired level as an insurance against the threat of liquidation. Risk-taking is a discontinuous function of the level of capital. A solution is derived for the liquidation rate in steady state and the determinants of charter value are investigated. Minimum capital standards are found to have little long-term impact on bank behaviour. Audit frequency is the principal tool for restraining moral hazard.