Numerical Parameters of Inflation Report Probability Distributions
By Date
| Projections
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How
to Obtain
Numerical Parameters of Inflation Report Distribution
February 2008
There are considerable uncertainties surrounding the projections of GDP growth and CPI inflation published in the Inflation Report. This uncertainty is reflected by the presentation of projections as fan charts. The fan charts are derived from the MPC's projected probability distributions for the twelve-month rate of CPI inflation and four-quarter growth rate of GDP.
The probability distribution tables provide, for the latest Inflation Report forecast, five numerical parameters (mode, median, mean, uncertainty and skew) from the MPC's projected probability distributions for the twelve-month rate of CPI inflation and four-quarter growth rate of GDP. The tables also show the probabilities for various outcomes for inflation and GDP. They complement the information contained in Section 5 of the February Report. Additional tables are provided on the probability distribution obtained by replacing the MPC's assumption of market interest rate expectations with constant interest rates.
Key Resources
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Probability Distribution Table February 2008 Download Excel Spreadsheet |
| Probability Tables from Previous Forecasts | |
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Parameters for MPC CPI Inflation Forecasts from February 2004 Download Excel Spreadsheet |
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Parameters for MPC GDP Growth Forecasts August 1997 - August 2007 Download Excel Spreadsheet |
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Parameters for MPC GDP Growth Forecasts based on Bank Estimates of Past Growth from August 2007 Download Excel Spreadsheet |
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Parameters for MPC GDP Growth Backcasts from November 2007 Download Excel Spreadsheet |
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Parameters for Bank of England RPIX Inflation Forecasts Feb 1993 - May 1997 Download Excel Spreadsheet |
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Parameters for MPC RPIX Inflation Forecasts August 1997 - February 2004 |
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The Inflation Report Projections: Understanding the Fan Chart By Erik Britton, Paul Fisher and John Whitley, Quarterly Bulletin, February 1998, pages 30-37 Download PDF |
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The MPC's Fan Chart Inflation Report, May 2002, pages 48-49 Download PDF |
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Assessing the MPC's Fan Charts By Rob Elder, George Kapetanios, Tim Taylor and Tony Yates, Quarterly Bulletin, Autumn 2005, pages 326-48 Download PDF |
