Numerical Parameters for Inflation Report Probability Distributions for CPI Inflation and GDP Growth
By Date
| Projections
| Numerical Parameters | 
How to Obtain
November 2009
There are considerable uncertainties surrounding the projections of GDP growth and CPI inflation published in the Inflation Report. This uncertainty is reflected by the presentation of projections as fan charts. The fan charts are derived from the MPC's projected probability distributions for the annual rate of CPI inflation and four-quarter growth rate of GDP.
The probability distribution tables provide, for the latest Inflation Report forecast, five numerical parameters (mode, median, mean, uncertainty and skew) from the MPC's projected probability distributions for the annual rate of CPI inflation and four-quarter growth rate of GDP. The tables also show the probabilities for various outcomes for inflation and GDP. They complement the information contained in Section 5 of the November Report. Tables are provided for both the projections conditioned on market interest rates and and those conditioned on constant interest rates.
Key Resources
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Probability Distribution Table for CPI Inflation and GDP Growth Projections - November 2009 Download Excel Spreadsheet |
| Probability Distribution Tables for Projections from August 2002 | |
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Parameters for MPC CPI Inflation Projections from February 2004 Download Excel Spreadsheet |
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Parameters for MPC GDP Growth Projections August 1997 - August 2007 Download Excel Spreadsheet |
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Parameters for MPC GDP Growth Projections based on Bank Estimates of Past Growth from August 2007 Download Excel Spreadsheet |
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Parameters for MPC GDP Growth Backcasts from November 2007 Download Excel Spreadsheet |
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Parameters for Bank of England RPIX Inflation Projections February 1993 - May 1997 Download Excel Spreadsheet |
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Parameters for MPC RPIX Inflation Projections August 1997 - February 2004 |
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The Inflation Report Projections: Understanding the Fan Chart By Erik Britton, Paul Fisher and John Whitley, Quarterly Bulletin, February 1998, pages 30-37 Download PDF |
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The MPC's Fan Chart Inflation Report, May 2002, pages 48-49 Download PDF |
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Assessing the MPC's Fan Charts By Rob Elder, George Kapetanios, Tim Taylor and Tony Yates, Quarterly Bulletin, Autumn 2005, pages 326-48 Download PDF |
