Quarterly Bulletin
Autumn 2005 Contents

Markets and operations (1.6mb)
Box on a change in the presentation of market forward interest rates
Box on real interest rates and macroeconomic volatility
Box on interactions between cash and derivatives markets
Box on the work of the money market liaison group

Assessing the MPC’s fan charts (885k)
Box on which measure of central tendency should we focus on?
Box on some illustrations of biased or inefficient forecasts
Box on why multi step ahead forecasts often generate persistent forecast errors
Box on forecast revisions
Box on revisions to GDP growth in 1999/ 2000

Long-run evidence on money growth and inflation (675k)

The determination of UK corporate capital gearing (440k)
Box on theories of corporate financial structure

Publication of narrow money data: the implications of money market reform (286k)
Box on the origins of the monetary base (M0) and its role in seigniorage

The determinants of household debt and balance sheets in the United Kingdom

Bank loans versus bond finance: implications for sovereign debtors

Forecasting using Bayesian and information theoretic model averaging: an application to UK inflation

Accounting for the source of exchange rate movements: new evidence

A model of bank capital, lending and the macroeconomy: Basel I versus Basel II

Consumption, house prices and expectations

What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions

‘Real-world’ mortgages, consumption volatility and the low inflation environment

The substitution of bank for non-bank corporate finance: evidence for the United Kingdom

The Governor's speech at Salts Mill, Bradford (77k)
Delivered on 13 June 2005

The Governor's speech at the Mansion House (113k)
Delivered on 22 June 2005

Monetary policy making: fact and fiction (119k)
Speech by Richard Lambert, member of the Monetary Policy Committee, given at the South West Agency on 24 May 2005