Quarterly Bulletin
Data Articles
| 2007 Q3 | Extracting a better signal from uncertain data Proposals to modify the measurement of broad money in the United Kingdom: a user consultation |
| Spring 2005 |
Dealing
with data uncertainty 
(95k) (by James Ashley, Ronnie Driver, Simon Hayes and Christopher Jeffery of the Bank's Conjunctural Assessment and Projections Division). True values of key macroeconomic variables are unobservable and can only be estimated. A key question for the Monetary Policy Committee is how best to take account of the resultant uncertainty in its economic assessment. Official estimates of economic variables are produced by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), and some private sector organisations publish surveys of business activity that may also give clues as to the underlying state of the economy. This article presents a simple methodology for deriving 'best guesses' of the true values of economic variables by weighting together official estimates and information from business surveys. |
| Winter 2004 | The
foreign exchange and over-the-counter derivatives markets
in the United Kingdom
(137k) (by Peter Williams of the Bank's Monetary and Financial Statistics Division). In April this year, the Bank of England conducted the three-yearly survey of turnover in the UK foreign exchange and over-the-counter (OTC) currency and interest rate derivatives markets, as part of the latest worldwide survey co-ordinated by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS). The results show that the volume of foreign exchange activity in the United Kingdom has increased by nearly 50% since April 2001. Turnover in OTC derivatives has more than doubled in the same period. This article presents the main results of the UK survey and highlights the effects of developments in foreign exchange and OTC derivatives markets on volumes of activity. It also provides detailed breakdowns of UK survey data and a comparison with global survey results. The external balance sheet of the United Kingdom: recent developments
(107k)(by John Elliott and Erica Wong Min of the Bank's Monetary and Financial Statistics Division). The United Kingdom's external balance sheet currently records assets and liabilities of more than £3.5 trillion. Both sides of the external balance sheet grew sharply during 2003, continuing the marked expansion that has been recorded since the early 1990s. This article examines recent trends within the balance sheet components with reference to the associated financial flows and income. There is a particular focus on data reported by monetary financial institutions. The article discusses some of the problems involved in compiling an external balance sheet, examining two key issues through the estimation of a breakdown of revaluations to outstanding stocks and a discussion of foreign direct investment data. We also report on current domestic and international initiatives aimed at further improving the quality of external statistics. |
| Spring 2004 | Measuring
total factor productivity for the United Kingdom
(99k) (by Charlotta Groth, Maria Gutierrez-Domenech and Sylaja Srinivasan of the Bank's Structural Economic Analysis Division). A good understanding of productivity growth is important for understanding aggregate supply capacity, and so for the conduct of monetary policy. To understand the sources of supply capacity well, it is important to measure output and factor inputs correctly. This article summarises recent and ongoing research at the Bank of England on improved measures of factor inputs. This work explicitly accounts for changes in the quality of these inputs and for the flow of services available from them, as well as for the costs of adjusting the level and utilisation of the inputs over time. This research was presented at a workshop on 'measuring factor inputs' held at the Bank of England in December 2003. |
| Winter 2003 | Financial
stability and the United Kingdom's external balance sheet
(170k) (by Mhairi Burnett of the Bank's Monetary and Financial Statistics Division and Mark Manning of the Bank's Domestic Finance Division). This article, one in an annual series, examines the United Kingdom's financial transactions with the rest of the world, paying particular attention to the implications for financial stability. In recent years, the United Kingdom's stocks of external assets and liabilities have increased considerably, and each now exceeds £3.5 trillion. This is three times UK GDP and around a third of the United Kingdom's total financial assets. The monetary financial institutions (MFI) sector accounts for approximately half of the external balance sheet, reflecting both the international orientation of UK-owned banks and the cross-border activities of foreign-owned UK-resident banks. The article begins with a conceptual discussion of how external positions might affect financial stability, before turning to recent developments. The principal focus is on the MFI and private non-financial corporate (PNFC) sectors, in which the largest external positions exist. The discussion draws upon data from a variety of sources, including the Pink Book, sectoral financial balance sheets, the Bank of England and the IMF. |
| Spring 2003 | The
measurement of house prices
(81k) (by Gregory Thwaites and Rob Wood of the Bank's Structural Economic Analysis Division). House prices are an important consideration in assessing macroeconomic developments in the United Kingdom. But the special characteristics of housing-heterogeneity, infrequent sale and negotiated prices-give rise to important issues that complicate their measurement. There are several valid concepts of house prices-such as the average transaction price, the price of a typical house and the housing stock deflator-each of which is useful for a different purpose. Users must therefore be careful to match the measure they use with the concept of house prices they are interested in. Furthermore, all the available measures are volatile, so high-frequency changes in house price inflation should not be expected to persist. |
| Winter 2002 | The
external balance sheet of the United Kingdom: recent developments
(98k) (by Robert Westwood of the Bank's Monetary and Financial Statistics Division and John Young of the Bank's Domestic Finance Division). The external balance sheet (or international investment position) gives the most complete picture of the stock position of a country in its financial transactions with the rest of the world. The very breadth of coverage of the data leads inevitably to problems of measurement and valuation. Nevertheless, subject to certain qualifications, the data can throw some light on macroeconomic and financial stability issues related to the United Kingdom's cross-border financial links. This article, one in an annual series, discusses the recent evolution of the United Kingdom's external balance sheet, reviewing along the way some of the main methodological issues that impinge on an interpretation of the data. It concludes that, despite a persistent current account deficit, the balance of probability is that the United Kingdom still has net external assets, or at least the capacity to generate net investment income from overseas. There are also some grounds for optimism that the structure of its assets and liabilities has left the United Kingdom in a fairly strong position to withstand financial shocks. Public sector debt: end-March 2002
(73k)(by Paul Burton of the Bank's Monetary and Financial Statistics Division). Public sector net debt (PSND) stood at £310.0 billion as at end-March 2002, £4.1 billion higher than at end-March 2001. This was equivalent to 30.4% of GDP, some 0.9 percentage points lower than at end-March 2001. This annual article examines the structure of the financial liabilities of the UK public sector. |
| Spring 2002 | Building
a real-time database for GDP(E)
(83k) (by Jennifer Castle of Oxford University and Colin Ellis of the Bank's Structural Economic Analysis Division). The Bank's Monetary Policy Committee analyses a wide variety of data to inform its monetary policy decisions. One of the main questions raised by new data is how much weight should be placed on initial estimates that are likely to get revised. Economic policy decisions must take account of possible revisions to the data that are used to inform the assessment of the current state of the economy. In attempting to improve our understanding of how data are revised, we have constructed a real-time database that contains successive sets of data for a number of different series. This article discusses the construction of the database for the major components of the expenditure side of gross domestic product (GDP) in the UK National Accounts. |
