Summary of Quarterly Bulletin
Spring 2003
Each article is available
as a separate pdf file; click on the appropriate title to
access the relevant file. Alternatively you may download the
complete issue 
(1.7M). |
|
| Markets
and operations
(201k) |
This article reviews developments in sterling and global financial markets, UK market structure and the Bank's official operations since the Winter Quarterly Bulletin. |
| Research and analysis | Research work published by
the Bank is intended to contribute to debate, and does not necessarily reflect
the views of the Bank or of MPC members. Market-based estimates of expected future UK output growth
(77k) (by Ben Martin and Michael Sawicki of the Bank's Monetary Instruments and Markets Division). This article derives some simple market-based projections of future output growth from a Taylor monetary policy rule, yield curves and inflation surveys. The results can be used as a timely cross-check on output growth expectations from other sources. We find that over the recent past the projections have been plausible in magnitude against both recorded outturns and survey expectations. Monetary policy and the zero bound to nominal interest rates
(93k) (by Tony Yates of the Bank's Monetary Assessment and Strategy Division). Some commentators have recently discussed the possibility that certain countries may experience a period of general price deflation. In such a situation, nominal interest rates may reach their lower bound of zero. This article concludes that the evidence available suggests that such a situation is highly unlikely to occur in the United Kingdom. It reviews what the academic literature has to say about the scope for alternatives to cutting interest rates in the improbable event that nominal interest rates do reach zero. The measurement of house prices
(81k) (by Gregory Thwaites and Rob Wood of the Bank's Structural Economic Analysis Division). House prices are an important consideration in assessing macroeconomic developments in the United Kingdom. But the special characteristics of housing-heterogeneity, infrequent sale and negotiated prices-give rise to important issues that complicate their measurement. There are several valid concepts of house prices-such as the average transaction price, the price of a typical house and the housing stock deflator-each of which is useful for a different purpose. Users must therefore be careful to match the measure they use with the concept of house prices they are interested in. Furthermore, all the available measures are volatile, so high-frequency changes in house price inflation should not be expected to persist. |
| Reports | Report on modelling and forecasting at the Bank of England
(173k) Report to the Court of Directors of the Bank of England on the modelling and forecasting systems within the Bank, prepared by Adrian Pagan of the Australian National University and the University of New South Wales. Bank's response to the Pagan Report
(36k) The Bank's regional Agencies
(65k) (by Phil Eckersley, the Bank's Agent for Northern Ireland and Pamela Webber, of the Bank's Inflation Report and Bulletin Division). This article describes the work of the Bank's regional Agencies, updating that published in the November 1997 Quarterly Bulletin. It outlines, in particular, the contribution of the Agencies to the work of the Monetary Policy Committee. A review of the work of the London Foreign Exchange Joint Standing Committee in 2002
(50k) This note reviews the work undertaken by the London Foreign Exchange Joint Standing Committee during 2002. |
