Quarterly Bulletin
Economic Growth Articles
| 2007 Q2 | National saving  (488k)(By Simon Whitaker of the Bank's Structural Economic Analysis Division). The level of national saving is important for policymakers as it can contain information about future prospects for growth and inflation. This article starts by comparing the current level of saving with a simple benchmark. However, this benchmark ignores important issues such as the relevant measure of saving and capital and the ability to borrow from overseas. The article considers how various measurement issues and economic shocks could allow the level of saving to differ from this benchmark, and also looks at the outlook for national saving in the medium term. |
| Spring 2004 | Measuring
total factor productivity for the United Kingdom
(99k) (by Charlotta Groth, Maria Gutierrez-Domenech and Sylaja Srinivasan of the Bank's Structural Economic Analysis Division). A good understanding of productivity growth is important for understanding aggregate supply capacity, and so for the conduct of monetary policy. To understand the sources of supply capacity well, it is important to measure output and factor inputs correctly. This article summarises recent and ongoing research at the Bank of England on improved measures of factor inputs. This work explicitly accounts for changes in the quality of these inputs and for the flow of services available from them, as well as for the costs of adjusting the level and utilisation of the inputs over time. This research was presented at a workshop on 'measuring factor inputs' held at the Bank of England in December 2003. |
| Spring 2003 | Market-based
estimates of expected future UK output growth
(77k) (by Ben Martin and Michael Sawicki of the Bank's Monetary Instruments and Markets Division). This article derives some simple market-based projections of future output growth from a Taylor monetary policy rule, yield curves and inflation surveys. The results can be used as a timely cross-check on output growth expectations from other sources. We find that over the recent past the projections have been plausible in magnitude against both recorded outturns and survey expectations. |
| May 1998 | Growth in UK manufacturing between 1970-92 (115k) (by Gavin Cameron of Nuffield College Oxford, James Proudman of the Bank's Monetary Instruments and Markets Division, and Stephen Redding of New College, Oxford and CEPR). This article examines productivity growth and levels in UK manufacturing between 1970-92. During this period, UK manufacturing output fell, but by less than the number of hours worked in manufacturing, so labour productivity increased. Within manufacturing, economic performance varied considerably, both across sectors and time, including a notable difference between the two peak-to-peak business cycles 1973-79 and 1979-89. To understand manufacturing economic performance more fully, the article considers disaggregated data for 19 manufacturing industries, using two measures of productivity: labour productivity and Total Factor Productivity. |
| November 1997 | The relationship between openness and growth in the
United Kingdom: a summary of the Bank of England Openness
and Growth Project (263k) (by James Proudman and Stephen Redding of the Bank's Structural Economic Analysis Division). This article summarises the results of the Bank's Openness and Growth Project. The empirical findings suggest that openness is closely associated with growth in productivity both across countries and across sectors within the United Kingdom. Between 1970 and 1992, some 15% of the initial gap in productivity between the United Kingdom and the United States was closed. Of this, roughly half was attributable to the rise in international openness. |
| February 1997 | Increasingly weightless economies (55k) (by Danny T Quah, Centre for Economic Performance, the London School of Economics). This article is one of an occasional series provided by academics working outside the Bank of England. The views expressed reflect those of the author rather than those of the Bank of England. Danny T Quah examines how, when an economy grows, its patterns of production and consumption systematically change. He describes one such large-scale evolution, namely, the increasing weightlessness of aggregate output across advanced economies. In all fast-growing successful countries, growth in information technology has contributed positively both to increasing weightlessness and to economic growth. In the sample of countries studied here, the richer the country the higher the contribution to growth of information technology and services; in no country has manufacturing, as traditionally construed, continued to be as important. |
| May 1995 | Inflation and economic growth (95k) (by Professor Robert Barro) presents results assessing the effect of inflation on economic performance. These suggest that an increase in average inflation of ten percentage points a year reduces the annual growth of real GDP per head by 0.20.3 percentage points and the ratio of investment to GDP by 0.40.6 percentage points. The article continues the Bulletin's occasional series of pieces by contributors from outside the Bank. |
| February 1995 | The costs of inflation (59k) (by Clive Briault of the Bank's Monetary Assessment and Strategy Division) surveys the academic literature: economic theory suggests that inflation imposes costs through a variety of channels; consistent with this, most empirical studies have found a significant negative correlation between inflation and growth. At the broadest level, the available evidence supports the view that well-run economies with strong and efficient productive structures tend to exhibit both low inflation and high growth. |
| November 1994 | Regional differences and their importance for the UK
economy (59k) (by Andy Murfin and Kieren Wright of the Bank's Structural Economic Analysis Division) looks at longer-term trends in the performance of the UK regions and at the short-term outlook. Analysis of the last 20 years reveals that differences in regions' average income per head have in general been persistent, and that the range of regional growth rates tends to widen in a recession. Labour mobility between regions seems relatively low. Over the shorter term, the recovery at present seems well-balanced among the regions. |
| August 1994 | UK trade-long-term trends and recent developments
(54k) (by Andrew Dumble of the Bank's Structural Economic Analysis Division) considers why trade performance matters. It analyses the factors that determine whether a current account deficit gives grounds for concern, and considers some longer-term trends in UK trade performance. It then assesses the impact of two major influences on recent UK performance - sterling's depreciation following the suspension of ERM membership and the recession that has affected its main EU trading partners - and suggests some elements in the short-term outlook. |
