Quarterly Bulletin
Imports Articles
| 2008 Q3 | Globalisation, import prices and inflation: how reliable are the 'tailwinds'?  (425k) (by Alex Bowen and Karen Mayhew of the Bank's Monetary Analysis Division). It is sometimes argued that increasing globalisation and openness to trade has exerted downward pressure on inflation in developed countries by, for example, reducing import prices. But, as recent experience of rising commodity prices suggests, globalisation may sometimes be associated with rising import prices. And, even when import prices were falling, the consequences for inflation depended on whether the changes in real incomes brought about were anticipated by households and how monetary policy reacted. Studies that neglect expectations and the role of monetary policy in determining inflation are likely to mismeasure the impact of globalisation on domestic inflation. |
| 2008 Q1 | The impact of low-cost economies on UK import prices (471k) (by Conall Mac Coille of the Bank's Structural Economic Analysis Division). The share of UK imports from developing countries has increased sharply in recent years. Using measures of bilateral trade prices, this article suggests that increased sourcing from low-cost economies has put significant downward pressure on the relative price of UK goods imports. However, this effect may have dissipated over time as the prices of UK imports from low-cost economies have risen more rapidly than in the past and developing economies' increasing demand for raw materials has contributed to higher oil and commodities prices. |
| Autumn 2004 | Why has
world trade grown faster than world output?
(137k) (by Mark Dean of the Bank's International Economic Analysis Division and Maria Sebastia-Barriel of the Bank's Structural Economic Analysis Division). Between 1980 and 2002, world trade has more than tripled while world output has 'only' doubled. The rise in trade relative to output is common across countries and regions, although the relative growth in trade and output varies greatly. This article attempts to explain why the ratio of world trade to output has increased over recent decades. It provides a brief review of the key determinants of trade growth and identifies proxies that will enable us to quantify the relative importance of the different channels. We estimate this across a panel of ten developed countries. This will allow us to understand better the path of world trade and thus the demand for UK exports. Furthermore this approach will help us to distinguish between long-run trends in trade growth and cyclical movements around it. |
| Summer 2003 | What
caused the rise in the UK terms of trade?
(123k) (by Karen Dury and Laura Piscitelli of the Bank's International Economic Analysis Division, Maria Sebastia-Barriel of the Bank's Structural Economic Analysis Division and Tony Yates of the Bank's Monetary Assessment and Strategy Division). The UK terms of trade rose by 15% from 1995 Q3 to 2003 Q1. This article looks at alternative explanations of why this happened, and what they mean for the likelihood that the terms of trade increase will endure. |
| Summer 2002 | Why are
UK imports so cyclical?
(72k) (by Valerie Herzberg, Maria Sebastia-Barriel and Simon Whitaker of the Bank's Structural Economic Analysis Division). The recent economic slowdown in the United Kingdom has been characterised by declines in business investment and exports. The impact on domestic output has been alleviated by robust household spending, but also by a sharp decline in imports of goods and services. This article shows that these divergent trends in the components of demand, and differences in their import content, can help explain the weakness in imports during 2001. More generally, close attention to the relative contribution of the components to aggregate demand can help explain fluctuations in imports. The analysis has been aided by the recent publication of updated information from the ONS on the import content of different expenditure categories. |
