Quarterly Bulletin
Winter 2004 Contents

Markets and operations (177k)
Box on market-based measures of interest rate expectations
Box on second consultative paper on money market reform

British household indebtedness and financial stress: a household-level picture (154k)
Box on interest-free unsecured debt

The new sterling ERI (181k)
Box on examples of competitiveness weights

Using option prices to measure financial market views about balances of risk to future asset prices (190k)
Box on option-implied pdfs, the Black-Scholes model and implied volatility smiles

Real exchange rate persistence and systematic monetary policy behaviour

Evolving post-World War II UK economic performance

The efficient resolution of capital account crises: how to avoid moral hazard

Intertemporal substitution and household production in labour supply

Rule-based monetary policy under central bank learning

The effects of stock market movements on consumption and investment: does the shock matter?

Forecasting with measurement errors in dynamic models

Estimating time-variation in measurement error from data revisions; an application to forecasting in dynamic models

From tiny samples do mighty populations grow? Using the British Household Panel Survey to analyse the household sector balance sheet

Price-setting behaviour, competition, and mark-up shocks in the New Keynesian model

Anticipation of monetary policy in UK financial markets

Core inflation: a critical guide

Long-term interest rates, wealth and consumption

Long-horizon equity return predictability: some new evidence for the United Kingdom

Horizontal and vertical integration in securities trading and settlement

The foreign exchange and over-the-counter derivatives markets in the United Kingdom (137k)
Box on global survey results
Box on types of electronic trading platform
Box on survey details and definitions

The external balance sheet of the United Kingdom: recent developments (107k)
Box on geographic and currency detail of banking sector other investment data
Box on errors and omissions
Box on foreign direct investment measurement issues

Stability and statistics (130k)
Speech by Rachel Lomax, Deputy Governor for monetary policy and member of the Monetary Policy Committee, delivered to the North Wales Business Club on 23 November 2004

Why is inflation so low? (139k)
Speech by Richard Lambert, member of the Monetary Policy Committee, given at the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland on 25 October 2004

Monetary policy, data uncertainty and the supply side: living with the statistical fog (185k)
Speech by Marian Bell, member of the Monetary Policy Committee, delivered to the Society of Business Economists on 15 September 2004