Bank of England Working Papers -
Abstracts 2005 (no. 246-285)

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The following are brief abstracts of working papers. Those papers that are out of print are marked as such (oop). For details of how to obtain copies of working papers, both in and out of print, see the Working Papers main page.

You can also view the full text of working papers 23 and 24 (from 1994) and working papers since 1997 as PDF files, readable with the latest version of Adobe Acrobat (this is available free from Adobe's Website ). The working papers are listed with the most recent papers first.

Working Paper No 285
The New Keynesian Phillips Curve in the United States and the euro area: aggregation bias, stability and robustness
by Bergljot Barkbu, Vincenzo Cassino, Aileen Gosselin-Lotz and Laura Piscitelli
(456K)

In the recent past, the empirical literature on the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) has grown rapidly. The NKPC has been shown to describe satisfactorily the relationship between inflation and marginal cost both for the United States and the euro area. However, little attention has been given so far to the stability and robustness of the parameters in the estimated NKPC. In this paper, we aim to help fill this gap. After estimating hybrid NKPCs on US and euro-area data using the generalised method of moments and having found that our results are broadly in line with previous findings, we subject our estimated NKPCs to a thorough stability analysis. We find that the estimated coefficients for the United States are stable, whereas those for the euro area are considerably less stable. We then investigate the possible reasons for this instability. One explanation, explored using the Andrews' test, is the presence of structural breaks. Another possibility is the presence of an aggregation bias, which we investigate by estimating NKPCs for the three largest euro-area economies: Germany, France and Italy. At this disaggregated level, the fit of the NKPC improves, but the coefficients are still unstable. Furthermore, the disaggregated analysis indicates the presence of structural breaks in the three largest euro-area economies.

Working Paper No 284
Modelling manufacturing inventories
by John D Tsoukalas
(241K)

This paper presents and applies a stage-of-fabrication inventory model to the UK manufacturing sector. The model emphasises the interaction between input (raw materials and work-in-process) and output (finished goods) inventories. This interaction is an important empirical regularity and proves critical for the ability of the model to fit the data. Decisions about input and output inventory investment cannot be considered in isolation from each other, but must be analysed jointly. Overall, the stage-of-fabrication model receives considerable support. Maximum likelihood estimation of the model’s decision rules yields correctly signed and significant parameter estimates. In terms of producer behaviour, the results imply rising marginal costs of production and significant costs of adjusting production.

Working Paper No 283
Measuring investors' risk appetite
by Prasanna Gai and Nicholas Vause
(1mb)

This paper proposes a new method for measuring investor ‘risk appetite’. Like other indicators in the literature, it is based on a comparison of risk-neutral probabilities of future returns with the corresponding subjective probabilities. The precise nature of the comparison is novel, however, and involves comparing probabilities across the full range of potential returns. Unlike other indicators, our measure of market sentiment distinguishes risk appetite from risk aversion, and is reported in levels rather than changes. Implementation of the approach yields results that respond to crises and other major economic events in a plausible manner.

Working Paper No 282
Stress tests of UK banks using a VAR approach
by Glenn Hoggarth, Steffen Sorensen and Lea Zicchino
(1mb)

This paper adopts a new approach to stress testing the UK banking system. We attempt to account for the dynamics between banks’ write-offs and key macroeconomic variables, through conditioning our stress test on the historical correlation between the variables and allowing for feedback effects from credit risk to the macroeconomy. In contrast to most existing empirical stress testing work, this paper uses a direct measure of banks’ fragility – the write-off to loan ratio. We find that both UK banks’ total and corporate write-offs are significantly related to deviations of output from potential. Following an adverse output shock, total and corporate write-off ratios increase. Mortgage arrears, on the other hand, appear to be mainly dependent on household income gearing. The results suggest that, even if the most extreme economic stress conditions witnessed over the past two decades were repeated, the UK banking sector should remain robust.

Working Paper No 281
Monetary policy and data uncertainty
by Jarkko Jääskelä and Tony Yates
(457k)

One of the problems facing policymakers is that recent releases of data are liable to subsequent revisions. This paper discusses how to deal with this, and is in two parts. In the normative part of the paper, we study the design of monetary policy rules in a model that has the feature that data uncertainty varies according to the vintage. We show how coefficients on lagged variables in optimised simple rules for monetary policy increase as the relative measurement error in early vintages of data increases. We also explore scenarios when policymakers are uncertain by how much measurement error in new data exceeds that in old data. An optimal policy can then be one in which it is better to assume that the ratio of measurement error in new compared to old data is larger, rather than smaller. In the positive part of the paper, we show that the response of monetary policy to vintage varying data uncertainty may generate evidence of apparent interest rate smoothing in interest rate reaction functions: but we suggest that it may not generate enough to account for what has been observed in the data.

Working Paper No 280
A quality-adjusted labour input series for the United Kingdom (1975-2002)
by Venetia Bell, Pablo Burriel-Llombart and Jerry Jones
(277k)

In this paper, annual indices of labour input adjusted for the education, age and gender distributions of the UK workforce are presented for the period 1975-2002. These measures show that improvement in labour quality, as proxied by education, age and gender, has added on average 0.67 percentage points per year to the growth rate in total labour input. Changes in the education distribution more than account for the improvement in labour quality, adding 0.68 percentage points per annum. Changes in the age distribution have made a much smaller contribution, adding only 0.11 percentage points to the growth rate. The rise in female participation has had a small negative effect of 0.08 percentage points, as women have had a preference for part-time work, which tends to be paid less per hour than full-time jobs. Using this evidence, the key finding of this paper is that a large proportion of growth that is usually attributed to TFP (total factor productivity) growth can be accounted for by an improvement in the quality of labour input. This result has no implications for the measurement of UK GDP growth from 1975-2002, but it does help to identify more accurately the sources of that growth.

Working Paper No 279
Monetary policy and private sector misperceptions about the natural level of output
by Jarkko Jääskelä and Jack McKeown
(188k)

In this paper we illustrate, using a simple model of monetary policy, the welfare costs of the private sector and/or the central bank being uncertain about the natural level of output. It turns out that monetary policy strategies that put less weight on output stabilisation can offset some of these welfare costs.

Working Paper No 278
Misperceptions and monetary policy in a New Keynesian model
by Jarkko Jääskelä and Jack McKeown
(222k)

This paper studies the consequences for the monetary policy design of information shortages on the part of the private sector. We model these shortages as exogenous shocks to expected output, which through an IS curve, disturb demand and output themselves. We constrain policymakers to follow Taylor-like rules but allow them to optimise coefficients: we find that the presence of misperceptions makes the optimised Taylor rule respond more aggressively to inflation and the output gap. We also find that if the policymaker is uncertain about misperceptions, then it is less costly to assume they are pervasive when they are not than the reverse. In other words, setting policy on the basis that the private sector is subject to misperceptions is a ‘robust’ policy.

Working Paper No 277
When is mortgage indebtedness a financial burden to British households? A dynamic probit approach
by Orla May and Merxe Tudela
(222k)

Since the mid-1990s the volume of secured lending to households has expanded rapidly, both in absolute terms and in relation to household incomes. This paper examines the determinants of households' ability to service this stock of secured debt. It estimates a random effects probit model for the probability of households having mortgage payment problems. It is found that past experience of payment problems increases the probability that the household has difficulties servicing its secured debt today. At the household level, becoming unemployed, interest income gearing of 20% and above, high loan to value ratios and having a heavy burden of unsecured debt are all associated with a significantly higher probability of mortgage payment problems. Saving regularly and having unsecured debt which is not a problem are both associated with a significantly lower probability of mortgage payment problems. The only non-household-specific variable to have a significant effect is mortgage interest rates - the probability of payment problems increases with the level of mortgage interest rates. An aggregate measure of debt at risk is calculated. This has decreased between 1994 and 2002, as falls in the probability of mortgage payment problems have more than offset increases in the stock of mortgage debt outstanding. It is found that the fall in the probability of mortgage payment problems has been greatest among the most highly indebted households.

Working Paper No 276
Corporate expenditures and pension contributions: evidence from UK company accounts
by Philip Bunn and Kamakshya Trivedi
(343k)

This paper examines how corporate behaviour is related to financial pressure, where the financial pressure is on account of pension contributions to the company pension scheme. Using a large panel of quoted non-financial UK firms from 1983-2002, we estimate generalised methods of moments models for dividends and investment. Our results suggest that dividends are reduced in response to higher pension contributions. There is only weak evidence of any impact on investment. Companies that seek to tackle underfunding of defined benefit pension schemes by raising their contributions could pay lower dividends than they would have otherwise.

Working Paper No 275
Wealth and consumption: an assessment of the international evidence
by Vincent Labhard, Gabriel Sterne and Chris Young
(323k)

The main objective of this paper is to offer a critique of the existing literature on the link between wealth and consumption, as captured by the long-run marginal propensity to consume from financial wealth (mpcw). The international evidence suggests that the mpcw varies considerably across countries, and new estimates are presented, based on structural vector autoregressions (VARs) for eleven OECD countries, which tend to confirm this finding. It is argued that there is little theoretical rationale for a wide cross-country dispersion of the mpcw, and that the cross-country differences in empirical estimates may in fact reflect difficulties in the measurement of wealth across countries and a failure to account for the shocks causing changes in both consumption and wealth. Using a suitable panel technique, it is found that the hypothesis of a common long-run mpcw across countries cannot be rejected consistently, and a plausible estimate is obtained for the cross-section of eleven OECD countries. This estimate is a little over 6%, broadly consistent with estimates used in a wide range of policy models.

Working Paper No 274
The substitution of bank for non-bank corporate finance: evidence for the United Kingdom
by Ursel Baumann, Glenn Hoggarth and Darren Pain
(401k)

This paper investigates the extent to which changes in the quantity and cost of non-bank finance impact on the quantity and interest cost of UK-owned banks’ corporate lending. The results give some support to the view that there is substitution between market finance and bank loans — loan growth rises (falls) during periods when corporate bond spreads widen (decline). In particular, bank loans seem to substitute for other forms of finance in some periods of market stress such as in 1998 Q3. Moreover, this increase in credit seems to be supplied on unchanged terms, perhaps suggesting that banks passively accommodate changes in corporate loan demand. During other episodes of disturbances in non-bank finance, such as when bond or commercial paper issuance falls sharply, banks appear to increase their loan rates, perhaps reflecting greater perceived borrower risk or some reduction in banks’ own risk appetite.

Working Paper No 273
'Real-world' mortgages, consumption volatility and the low inflation environment
by Sebastian Barnes and Gregory Thwaites
(276k)

This paper considers the interaction between the microeconomic decisions facing households and the macroeconomic environment in a setting where households have `real-world' mortgage contracts. In particular, we consider the possible consequences of the important changes in the framework for setting monetary policy in the United Kingdom in recent decades that have coincided with a more stable and low inflation environment. We set a model of households with `real-world' mortgages in a partial equilibrium overlapping generations framework calibrated to UK data. We find that the welfare gains of the change of regime would have been considerable. However, the baseline calibration of the model implies that the volatility of aggregate consumption growth would actually be higher in the steady state in the more stable environment of the 1990s regime. This is due to greater synchrony in the response of households to shocks, offsetting the smaller magnitude of macroeconomic shocks. This effect is amplified by higher levels of debt in the 1990s. The result that aggregate consumption volatility could be higher in the current regime suggests that the observed fall in aggregate consumption volatility cannot necessarily be attributed to the more stable macroeconomic environment and the role of mortgage debt. If this result applies, this would suggest that the observed fall in volatility may be due either to other factors or may be a transitional phenomenon rather than a feature of the new steady state.

Working Paper No 272
What caused the early millennium slowdown? Evidence based on vector autoregressions
by Gert Peersman
(1mb)

This paper uses a number of simple VAR models for the industrialised world, the United States and the euro area respectively to analyse the underlying shocks that may have caused the recent slowdown. The results of two identification strategies are compared. One is based on traditional zero restrictions and, as an alternative, an identification scheme based on more recent sign restrictions is proposed. The main conclusion is that the recent slowdown was caused by a combination of several shocks: a negative aggregate supply and aggregate spending shock, the increase of oil prices in 1999, and restrictive monetary policy in 2000. These shocks were more pronounced in the United States than the euro area. The results are somewhat different depending on the identification strategy. It is illustrated that traditional zero restrictions can have an influence on the estimated impact of certain shocks.

Working Paper No 271
Consumption, house prices and expectations
by Orazio Attanasio, Laura Blow, Robert Hamilton and Andrew Leicester
(369k)

Over much of the past 25 years, the cycles of house price and consumption growth have been closely synchronised. Three main hypotheses for this co-movement have been proposed in the literature. First, that an increase in house prices raises households’ wealth, particularly for those in a position to trade down the housing ladder, which increases their desired level of expenditure. Second, that house price growth increases the collateral available to homeowners, reducing credit constraints and thereby facilitating higher consumption. And third, that house prices and consumption have tended to be influenced by common factors. This paper finds that the relationship between house prices and consumption is stronger for younger than older households, and that the consumption of homeowners and renters are equally aligned with the house price cycle. This suggests that neither the wealth nor the collateral channels have been the principal cause of the relationship between house prices and consumption — instead, the most important factor is likely to have been common causality.

Working Paper No 270
A model of bank capital, lending and the macroeconomy: Basel I versus Basel II
by Lea Zicchino
(356k)

The revised framework for capital regulation of internationally active banks (known as Basel II) introduces risk-based capital requirements. This paper analyses the relationship between bank capital, lending and macroeconomic activity under the new capital adequacy regime. It extends a model of the bank-capital channel of monetary policy - developed by Chami and Cosimano – by introducing capital constraints à la Basel II. The results suggest that bank capital is likely to be less variable under the new capital adequacy regime than under the current one, which is characterised by invariant asset risk-weights. However, bank lending is likely to be more responsive to macroeconomic shocks.

Working Paper No 269
Accounting for the source of exchange rate movements: new evidence
by Katie Farrant and Gert Peersman
(549k)

This paper analyses the role of the real exchange rate in a structural vector autoregression framework for the United Kingdom, euro area, Japan and Canada versus the United States. A new identification strategy is proposed building on sign restrictions. The results are compared to the benchmark conventional approach of Clarida and Gali based on long-run zero restrictions. Although the restrictions are derived from the same theoretical model, the results are strikingly different. In contrast to the benchmark model, an important role for nominal shocks in explaining
real exchange rate fluctuations is found.

Working Paper No 268
Forecasting using Bayesian and information theoretic model averaging: an application to UK inflation
by George Kapetanios, Vincent Labhard and Simon Price
(686k)

In recent years there has been increasing interest in forecasting methods that utilise large data sets, driven partly by the recognition that policymaking institutions need to process large quantities of information. Factor analysis is a popular way of doing this. Forecast combination is another, and it is on this that we concentrate. Bayesian model averaging methods have been widely employed in this area, but a neglected alternative approach employed in this paper uses information theoretic based weights. We consider the use of model averaging in forecasting UK inflation with a large data set from this perspective. We find that an information theoretic model averaging scheme can be a powerful alternative both to the more widely used Bayesian model averaging scheme and to factor models.

Working Paper No 267
Bank loans versus bond finance: implications for sovereign debtors
by Misa Tanaka
(344k)

This paper develops a model to analyse the optimal choice between bank loans and bond finance for a sovereign debtor. We show that if banks have better information about their borrowers compared to bondholders, only the least risky sovereigns issue bonds. But if borrowers can be ‘publicly monitored’ by an outside agency that disseminates the information about their creditworthiness, their choice between bank loans and bond finance is determined endogenously by the trade-off between two deadweight costs: the crisis cost of a sovereign default and the cost of debtor moral hazard. In equilibrium, sovereigns use bank loans for financing short-term projects and bond issuance for projects with uncertain timing of cash flows if crisis costs are large. We also demonstrate that state-contingent debt and IMF intervention can improve welfare.

Working Paper No 266
The determinants of household debt and balance sheets in the United Kingdom
by Merxe Tudela and Garry Young
(323k)

Household indebtedness has grown sharply in the United Kingdom in recent years. This paper proposes a framework for understanding this based on a model in which households are assumed to plan their lifetime spending rationally, allowing for bequests to future generations. The model is set up to be consistent with both aggregate and disaggregated balance sheet positions as revealed in the British Household Panel Survey. The paper goes on to outline the effect on debt and balance sheets of changes in interest rates, house prices, preferences and retirement income.

Working Paper No 265
Asset pricing, asymmetric information and rating announcements: does benchmarking on ratings matter?
by Spyros Pagratis
(1mb)

Using an intertemporal model of asset pricing under asymmetric information, we demonstrate how public ratings about the quality of a risky asset could enhance information efficiency, albeit at a cost of higher asset price volatility. The analysis also draws implications for the use of ratings for benchmarking purposes, in particular, ratings-based capital requirements and an investment/subinvestment grade dichotomy depending on the rating of the asset. In this situation, allowing a class of market participants (eg pension funds) to hold an asset only if its rating exceeds a certain threshold may lead informed traders to overreact to news about fundamentals. In this case, ratings induce lower price efficiency and excessive asset price volatility.

Working Paper No 264
Liquidity risk and contagion
by Rodrigo Cifuentes, Gianluigi Ferrucci and Hyun Song Shin
(193k)

This paper explores liquidity risk in a system of interconnected financial institutions when these institutions are subject to regulatory solvency constraints and mark their assets to market. When the market’s demand for illiquid assets is less than perfectly elastic, sales by distressed institutions depress the market prices of such assets. Marking to market of the asset book can induce a further round of endogenously generated sales of assets, depressing prices further and inducing further sales. Contagious failures can result from small shocks. We investigate the theoretical basis for contagious failures and quantify them through simulation exercises. Liquidity requirements on institutions can be as effective as capital requirements in forestalling contagious failures.

Working Paper No 263
The determinants of unsecured borrowing: evidence from the British Household Panel Survey
by Ana Del-Río and Garry Young (689k)

Household indebtedness has risen sharply in recent years, with large increases in both secured and unsecured borrowing. In this paper, waves 5 and 10 of the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) for 1995 and 2000 are used to examine the determinants of participation in the unsecured debt market and the amount borrowed. Probit models for participation are estimated and age, income, positive financial prospects and housing tenure are found to be very significant and have the expected sign according to a life-cycle model for consumption. Regressions to explain the level of borrowing by individuals suggest that income is the main variable explaining crosssectional differences in unsecured debts. The increase in aggregate unsecured debt between 1995 and 2000 does not seem to be closely linked to changes in the determinants of debt market participation and has been mainly associated with the larger amounts borrowed by those with debts. Increases in income, better educational qualifications and improved prospects regarding the financial situation contributed to this result. The major part of the overall increase in unsecured debt is not explained by variables at the individual level, but is accounted for by common, unmodelled macroeconomic factors.

Working Paper No 262
The impact of unsecured debt on financial distress among British households
by Ana Del-Río and Garry Young (386k)

This paper uses evidence from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) to examine how attitudes towards unsecured debt are related to household finances and other characteristics. An ordered-logit model is estimated for 1995 and 2000 using a self-reported indicator of financial distress as the dependent variable. This analysis suggests that the main factors causing debt problems are the unsecured debt-income ratio, the level of mortgage income gearing, the level of financial wealth of households, their health, ethnicity and marital status. While the proportion of households reporting debt problems did not change between 1995 and 2000, there were important shifts among different groups. In particular, more households in the youngest age group reported debt repayments were a heavy burden in 2000, while the opposite applies to the oldest age group where a smaller proportion of households than in 1995 reported debt was a heavy burden. These changes can largely be accounted for by the changing economic circumstances of these groups rather than an unrelated shift in attitudes. In particular, the increase in indebtedness of the young was the main factor accounting for their greater tendency to report debt problems.

Working Paper No 261
Default probabilities and expected recovery: an analysis of emerging market sovereign bonds
by Liz Dixon-Smith, Roman Goossens and Simon Hayes (305k)

We develop a simple bond pricing model to map the prices of individual EME sovereign bonds into term structures of implied (risk-neutral) default probabilities and expected recovery rates. Simple indices of bond spreads are found to be closely correlated with long-term risk neutral default probabilities, so may provide a straightforward way of monitoring shifts in investors' perceptions. But short-term risk neutral default probabilities behave quite differently, implying that there are periods of market-wide changes in volatility that do not show in measures of average spreads. Estimation of time-varying recovery rates appears to work best for countries in crisis, and suggests that expected recovery falls as the prospect of default becomes imminent. Movements in the median time to default generally appear plausible, both across time and across countries.

Working Paper No 260
Financial constraints and capacity adjustment in the United Kingdom: evidence from a large panel of survey data
by Ulf von Kalckreuth and Emma Murphy (421k)

The interrelationship between financial constraints and firm activity is a hotly debated issue. The way firms cope with financial constraints is fundamental to the analysis of monetary transmission, of financial stability and of economic growth and development. The CBI Industrial Trends Survey contains detailed information on the financial constraints faced by a large sample of UK manufacturers. This paper uses the quarterly CBI Industrial Trends Survey firm-level data between January 1989 and October 1999. The cleaned sample contains 49,244 quarterly observations on 5,196 firms. The data set is presented and a new method of checking the informational content of the data is developed. The relationship between investment activity and financial constraints is ambivalent because both can affect each other and they are affected by the same kind of economic developments, so it is not clear which is driving the other. But the link between financial constraints faced by the firm and the prevalence and duration of capacity restrictions should be unambiguously positive. Looking at that relationship, two important results emerge. First, financially constrained firms take longer to close capacity gaps. This indicates that financial constraints do indeed play a part in the investment process. Second, small firms close their capacity gaps faster than large firms do, but financial constraints seem to be of higher relevance to their adjustment.

Working Paper No 259
Productivity growth in UK industries, 1970-2000: structural change and the role of ICT
by Nicholas Oulton and Sylaja Srinivasan (346k)
Data appendix (Annex A) and Annexes B-D (324k)

This paper uses a new industry-level dataset to quantify the roles of structural change and information and communication technology (ICT) in explaining productivity growth in the United Kingdom, 1970-2000. The dataset is for 34 industries covering the whole economy, of which 31 industries are in the market sector. Using growth accounting, we find that ICT capital accounted for 13% of productivity growth in the market sector in 1970-79 (ie 0.47 percentage points out of 3.62% per annum growth of GDP per hour), 26% in 1979-90, and 28% in 1990-2000. In 1995-2000 the proportion rises to 47%. ICT capital, despite only being a small fraction of the total capital stock, contributed as much to growth as non-ICT capital in 1990-2000 and getting on for twice as much in 1995-2000. Econometric evidence also supports an important role for ICT. Total factor productivity (TFP) growth slowed down in 1995-2000, but we find econometric evidence that a boom in ‘complementary investment’, ie expenditure on reorganisation that accompanies ICT investment but is not officially measured as investment, could have led to a decline in the conventional measure of TFP growth.

Working Paper No 258
Estimating UK capital adjustment costs
by Charlotta Groth (246k)

This paper estimates UK capital adjustment costs, using a data set for 34 industries spanning the whole UK economy for the period 1970-2000. The results show that it is costly to install new capital, and that it has been more costly to adjust the level of non-ICT capital (plant, machinery, buildings and vehicles) compared to the level of ICT capital (computers, software and telecommunications). The results are applied to an analysis of total factor productivity (TFP) growth. That analysis is focused on the 1990s - a period when the growth rate of the standard measure of TFP fell in the United Kingdom, while rising sharply in the United States. The estimates suggest that capital adjustment costs accounted for around two thirds of the observed slowdown in UK TFP growth. However, the adjustment is not large enough to reverse the finding that UK TFP growth declines in the second half of the 1990s, unlike the US experience of rising TFP growth.

Working Paper No 257
The role of ICT in the global investment cycle
by Michael McMahon, Gabriel Sterne and Jamie Thompson (246k)

Most macroeconomic forecasters underestimated global investment during the late 1990s. One potential reason was that the models they were using were insufficiently disaggregated. In this paper, an empirical model is estimated whose out-of-sample forecasts largely predicted the global investment boom of the late 1990s. The main factor behind the improved model performance is the distinction between investment in ICT assets and investment in other assets, using disaggregated investment data provided by the OECD. In line with previous studies on US and UK investment performance, ICT investment is estimated to be much more responsive to changes in the real user cost of capital. In particular, panel and seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) estimates suggest very strong relative price effects on ICT investment for all G7 countries and Australia. The data also allow an examination of the effects of possible deflator mismeasurement; but within our framework, the measurement of investment using harmonised, rather than national, deflators is not found to have a material impact on forecasting performance.

Working Paper No 256
Comovements in the prices of securities issued by large complex financial institutions
by Christian Hawkesby, Ian W Marsh and Ibrahim Stevens (896k)

In recent years, mergers, acquisitions and organic growth have meant that some of the largest and most complex financial groups have come to transcend national boundaries and traditionally defined business lines. As a result, they have become a potential channel for the cross-border and cross-market transmission of financial shocks. This paper analyses the degree of comovement in the prices of securities issued by a selected group of large complex financial institutions (LCFIs), and assesses the extent to which movements in the prices of these securities are driven by common factors. A relatively high degree of commonality is found for most LCFIs (compared with a control group of non-financials), although there are still noticeable divisions between subgroups of LCFIs, both according to geography and primary business line.

Working Paper No 255
Learning the rules of the new game? Comparing the reactions in financial markets to announcements before and after the Bank of England's operational independence
by Ana Lasaosa (354k)

The subject of this paper is how the increase in transparency brought about by the Bank of England's operational independence has changed the way in which markets react immediately after economic announcements. Other things being equal, the increase in transparency of the new framework will make monetary policy more predictable once the latest macroeconomic data are known. On this view, the market will be less sensitive to interest rate decisions and more sensitive to macroeconomic data releases. Previous research on the subject showed a more muted reaction to macroeconomic releases in the United Kingdom after 1997, and suggested that markets were still learning the rules of the new monetary framework. With two more years of data and a complementary analysis of trading activity, this study finds that macroeconomic announcements continue to move the markets less in the post-independence period, and interest rate changes the same or more. A separate analysis of the surprise announcements and the surprise component of each announcement reveals a similar pattern. Nor is the possibly greater impact of international announcements - another candidate explanation - borne out by the data. Finally, the paper finds that the reactions to macroeconomic announcements are in fact stronger in the second half than in the first half of the post-independence period. An increase in transparency is not the only change brought about by operational independence. Among other things, the collective nature of the Monetary Policy Committee and a perceived shift towards a more implicit policy rule since operational independence may have made its decisions harder to anticipate, thus decreasing the response to macroeconomic releases and increasing the reaction to monetary policy decisions.

Working Paper No 254
On the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly
by Gianluca Benigno and Christoph Thoenissen (216k)

This paper addresses the consumption-real exchange rate anomaly. International real business cycle models based on complete financial markets predict a unitary correlation between the real exchange rate and the ratio of home to foreign consumption when subjected to supply-side shocks. In the data, this correlation is usually small and often negative. This paper shows that this anomaly can be successfully addressed by models that have an incomplete financial market structure and a non-traded as well as traded goods production sector.

Working Paper No 253
Decomposing credit spreads
by Rohan Churm and Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou (308k)

This paper investigates the information contained in the yields of corporate debt securities using a structural credit risk model. As previous studies have found, credit risk is not the only factor that affects corporate yield spreads. The aim is to decompose credit spreads, using a structural model of credit risk, into credit and non-credit risk components. The contribution relative to the existing literature is the use of contemporaneous forward-looking information on equity risk premia and equity value uncertainty in a structural model. In particular, implied equity risk premia from a three-stage dividend discount model that incorporates analysts' long-term earnings forecasts are used, together with implied measures of equity value uncertainty from option prices. The paper examines the evolution of the different components of spreads across time as well as the effect of particular events. It also analyses the relationship between the derived components and other financial variables, such as swap spreads and the equity risk premium.

Working Paper No 252
Real-Time Gross Settlement and hybrid payment systems: a comparison
by Matthew Willison (451k)

This paper contrasts Real-Time Gross Settlement and hybrid payment systems that are based on payment offset, using a two-period, multi-bank model. The comparison is performed according to two criteria: liquidity needs and speed of settlement. We assume that the existence of a payment is common knowledge but that the specific degree of time-criticality of a payment is the private information of the bank sending the payment. Hybrid payment systems are shown to outperform Real-Time Gross Settlement when payments are offset in the first period and when they are offset in both periods. This suggests that in a hybrid system, the offsetting facility should be in operation all day, or, at the very least, for some time after the system opens in the morning. A system in which the offsetting facility was only switched on late in the day would not necessarily be preferred to Real-Time Gross Settlement. These results are shown to be robust to changes in the transparency of the central queue of payments awaiting offset. However, this robustness may not hold with different forms of information asymmetry.

Working Paper No 251
The stock market and capital accumulation: an application to UK data
by Demetrios Eliades and Olaf Weeken (326k)

Because of the difficulty in measuring investment in intangible assets and frequent data revisions, estimates based on National Accounts investment data provide an imperfect measure of the capital stock. Following the influential work by Robert Hall for the United States, this paper provides an alternative measure of the UK capital stock based on asset prices. This market-based measure reflects the premise that in fair-valued financial markets the value of firms' securities reflects the value of their productive assets. In line with Hall's results for the United States, the paper suggests that for a range of adjustment costs, depreciation rates and starting values, market-based estimates of the UK capital stock have differed substantially from those based on National Accounts investment data. Despite some advantages over National Accounts based measures, market-based measures are likely to be more volatile, because financial markets' assessment of the value of intangible assets can potentially change rapidly. Nevertheless, they can be a useful cross-check of the National Accounts based measures of the UK capital stock.

Working Paper No 250
Asset price based estimates of sterling exchange rate risk premia
by Jan J J Groen and Ravi Balakrishnan (242k)

In this paper we report estimates of the effective sterling, sterling/Deutsche mark and sterling/US dollar risk premia over a monthly 1987-2001 sample, generated using a conditional factor model for the stochastic discount factor of a representative 'worldwide' investor. The model relates this stochastic discount factor to the real return on a 'worldwide' stock portfolio, with the model parameters varying with variations in the slope of the 'world' term structure of interest rates. Econometric tests indicate that this model is accepted by the data. The corresponding parameter estimates are used to compute the risk premium for the three aforementioned sterling exchange rates. A graphical analysis indicates that, in terms of magnitude, our measure of the exchange rate risk premium is mainly of importance for the sterling/Deutsche mark exchange rate. Risk-adjusted test regressions for uncovered interest rate parity vis-à-vis the major European currencies provide some confirmation for this.

Working Paper No 249
Optimal collective action clause thresholds
by Andrew G Haldane, Adrian Penalver, Victoria Saporta and Hyun Song Shin (318k)

Since February 2003 a number of debtor countries have issued bonds with collective action clauses (CACs) under New York law - a development welcomed by the official sector as tangible progress towards more orderly crisis resolution. Not all of these countries, however, have opted for the same CAC voting threshold, raising concerns that lack of standardisation might undermine the wider adoption of CACs. In this paper, debtors' optimal choice of CAC threshold is analysed using a theoretical model of 'grey-zone' financial crisis, which allows for the interaction of liquidity problems with solvency problems. It finds that individual countries may wish to set different thresholds because of differing risk preferences and creditworthiness. Strongly risk-averse debtors put much greater weight on pay-offs during crisis periods than during non-crisis periods and are therefore more likely to choose lower CAC thresholds than less risk-averse debtors. The worse the creditworthiness of risk-averse debtors, however, the more likely they will want to issue bonds with high collective action clauses.

Working Paper No 248
Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates
by Rebecca L Driver and Peter F Westaway (417k)

This paper explains what is meant by the concept of equilibrium exchange rates. It argues that a variety of equilibrium exchange rates can be defined and their behaviour will vary according to different definitions of the exchange rate, and over short, medium and long-term horizons. It emphasises that the relevance of each type will depend on the question at hand. The behaviour of different measures of the equilibrium exchange rate is explained with reference to a range of theoretical models. The paper explicitly addresses the circumstances under which purchasing power parity, a commonly adopted benchmark for long-run exchange rate movements, is appropriate. The most important purpose of the paper is to provide a taxonomy of the different empirical measures of equilibrium exchange rates that have been derived in the literature. It offers a comprehensive guide to the bewildering array of related acronyms that has sprung up and explains the different contexts in which different equilibrium measures might prove informative.

Working Paper No 247
The exposure of international bank loans to third-country risk: an empirical analysis of overdue claims
by Drew Dahl and Andrew Logan (681k)

The paper analyses the performance outcomes on foreign credits made by UK-owned banks to borrowers in 17 foreign countries between 1991 and 2000. The analysis is unique in its use of bank-specific data on overdue credits in individual countries. Results indicate that credit repayment in a given country is influenced by exports to, and economic activity in, another country linked by trading relationships. The observed cross-country interdependence is relevant to the understanding of risk management practices of international banks.

Working Paper No 246
Competitiveness, inflation, and monetary policy
by Hashmat Khan and Richhild Moessner (217k)

This paper examines the way in which structural changes in the level of steady-state competitiveness and the trend rate of inflation affect inflation responses to monetary policy shocks, in scenarios chosen to capture broadly the conditions of the UK economy in the early 1990s and more recently. Cyclical changes in competitiveness are also considered, since it is not clear empirically whether changes in competitiveness have been predominantly structural or cyclical. A model based on work by Woodford is used, allowing for positive trend inflation and cyclical variations in competitiveness in a tractable manner. This extension enables the separate quantification of the impact of differences in the steady-state level of and cyclical changes in competitiveness on inflation in the short term, in high and low inflation environments. The paper quantifies the extent to which procyclical (countercyclical) changes in competitiveness dampen (amplify) the impulse responses of inflation to a given monetary policy shock. In the calibration used, the inflation response to monetary policy shocks in a low inflation/high competitiveness environment is dampened compared with a high inflation/low competitiveness environment. By contrast, inflation responses to monetary policy shocks in a low inflation/low competitiveness environment are similar to those in a high inflation/high competitiveness environment.