Inflation Attitudes Survey
May 2003

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This page describes some the main results of the Bank of England's quarterly survey of public attitudes to inflation, undertaken in May 2003.

Correction - The original posted version of the May 2003 Inflation Attitudes Survey reported the median answer in questions 1 & 2 as 2.0% instead of 2.2%. These have now been corrected.

May 2003 Highlights

Question 1: Asked to give the current rate of inflation, respondents' median answer was 2.2%. This compares to 2.4% in February.
Question 2: Asked for their expectations of inflation over the coming year, respondents gave the same median answer as for perceptions of current inflation: 2.2%. This compares to 2.5% in February. The proportion expecting inflation to be 3% or more is back down to 25%, a more typical level, after an outturn of 33% in February 2003.
Question 3: By a margin of 47% to 7%, people think that Britain's economy would end up weaker rather than stronger if prices started to rise faster. This is in line with previous surveys; following a rise in the number saying "weaker" - to 53% - in February.
Question 4: 55% of respondents think the Government's 2.5% inflation target is about right. This is near to the three-year average.
Question 5: 43% recognise that interest rates have fallen over the past 12 months, while 18% think they have risen. At the time of the February survey, immediately following the fall in the repo rate from 4% to 3.75%, the proportion saying rates had fallen "over the past 12 months" jumped from 37% (in November 2002) to 49%. This pattern is similar to that experienced in the spring and summer of 2002, as memories of the rate cuts following 11 September 2001 faded.
Question 6: There has been little movement in expectations of future interest rate changes. The proportion expecting them to rise has slipped to 38%, only slightly down on the 40% and 41% recorded in the previous two surveys. The proportion expecting rates to fall was 11% (after 13% in February).
Question 7: Asked what would be best for the British economy - higher interest rates, lower interest rates or no change - the proportion saying they should go up has slipped back from 19% last August (the highest in this series) to 14%. For the first time in 18 months - since November 2001 - more people think it would be best for the economy if rates fell further, than think it would be best if they rise. However, once again by far the biggest number, 40%, think it would be best for rates to stay where they are.
Question 8: When asked what would be best "for you personally", 22% say "go up", while 29% say "go down". These figures have changed little since the beginning of 2002.
The results of questions 9-13, which are asked only once a year in February, are published as part of the full annual analysis of the opinion polls, in the Bank's summer Quarterly Bulletin, also released today.*
Question 14: 55% of respondents were satisfied with the way the Bank is 'doing its job to set interest rates to control inflation'. Only 9% were dissatisfied. The proportion satisfied has now re-stabilised at the levels typical of the period since November 2000 (in the two surveys following the post 11 September 2001 rate cuts the number satisfied climbed above 60%).

*Although the main survey is conducted quarterly, the February survey each year includes five extra questions, the answers to which have been shown to change slowly over time, and it has also double the sample size of the other surveys. An article in the summer Quarterly Bulletin will examine the trends seen in the four surveys up to and including February, and will include the responses to the five annual questions.

NOP interviewed a quota sample of 1,980 people aged 15 and over in 175 randomly-selected enumeration districts throughout Great Britain between 15 and 20 May, 2003. The raw data was weighted to match the demographic profile of Great Britain as a whole.

Key Resources

	Summary Results May 2003 Download Spreadsheet (34k)
	Detailed Survey Tables May 2003 Download Spreadsheet (158k)
	Survey Methodology and Notes Download PDF (32k)
	Quarterly Bulletin Survey Article Summer 2004 Download PDF (106k)
	Quarterly Bulletin Survey Article Summer 2003 Download PDF (106k)
	Quarterly Bulletin Survey Article Summer 2002 Download PDF (106k)
	Quarterly Bulletin Survey Article Summer 2001 Download PDF (106k)