Inflation Attitudes Survey
May 2004

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This page describes some the main results of the Bank of England's quarterly survey of public attitudes to inflation, undertaken in May 2004.

Correction - The original posted version of the May 2004 Inflation Attitudes Survey reported the median answer in questions 1 & 2 as 2.5% instead of 2.3% and 2.4% respectively. These have now been corrected.

May 2004 Highlights

Question 1: Asked to give the current rate of inflation, respondents gave a median answer of 2.3%. This compares with 2.4% in the February survey and 2.5% in November 2003.
Question 2: Median expectations of inflation over the coming year were 2.4%. This compares with 2.4% in the February survey and 2.6% in November 2003.
Question 3: By a margin of 45% to 8%, people believe that Britain’s economy would end up weaker rather than stronger if prices started to rise faster. This compares with a margin of 49% to 10% in the February survey. The proportion of respondents who think it would ‘make little difference’ to Britain’s economy if prices started to rise faster was 28%, compared with 22% in the February survey, the highest since May 2002.
Question 4: 57% of respondents thought the inflation target was 'about right'. This compares with 51% in November, who thought the then target of 2.5% (RPIX) was 'about right'. The proportion saying the target was 'too high' fell to 19% from 23% in November 2003.
Question 5: 54% of respondents said interest rates had risen over the past 12 months, up from 35% in November. Only 13% thought interest rates had fallen over the past year, compared with 23% in November 2003.
Question 6: Asked about the future path of interest rates, 71% expected rates to rise in the next 12 months, little changed from 69% in the February survey and 71% in November 2003.
Question 7: Asked what would be best for the British economy - higher interest rates, lower or no change - 21% thought they should go up, compared with 23% in the February survey. 17% of respondents thought interest rates should go down, compared with 15% in the February survey and in November 2003.
Question 8: When asked what would be best ‘for you personally’, 19% said interest rates should ‘go up’, compared with 22% in the February survey. 34% of respondents said it would be better for them if interest rates were to ‘go down’ compared with 31% in the February survey.
The results of questions 9-13, which are asked once a year in February, are published as part of the full annual analysis of the opinion polls in the Bank’s summer Quarterly Bulletin, also released today.*
Question 14: Respondents were asked to assess the way the Bank of England is ‘doing its job to set interest rates to control inflation’. The net satisfaction index – the proportion satisfied minus the proportion dissatisfied – was 41% in May, broadly in line with the figures recorded in each of the previous seven quarterly surveys.

*Although the main survey is conducted quarterly, the February survey each year includes five extra questions, the answers to which have been shown to change slowly over time, and has double the sample size of the other surveys. An article in the summer Quarterly Bulletin examines the trends seen in the four surveys up to and including February, and includes the responses to the five annual questions.

In the May survey, NOP interviewed a quota sample of 1,974 people aged 15 and over in 175 randomly-selected enumeration districts throughout Great Britain between 13 and 18 May 2004. The raw data were weighted to match the demographic profile of Great Britain as a whole.

Key Resources

	Summary Results May 2004 Download Spreadsheet (37k)
	Detailed Survey Tables May 2004 Download Spreadsheet (93k)
	Survey Methodology and Notes Download PDF (32k)
	Quarterly Bulletin Survey Article Summer 2004 Download PDF (106k)
	Quarterly Bulletin Survey Article Summer 2003 Download PDF (106k)
	Quarterly Bulletin Survey Article Summer 2002 Download PDF (106k)
	Quarterly Bulletin Survey Article Summer 2001 Download PDF (106k)