Fergus Cumming

Senior Economist - Monetary Policy Outlook Division

Biography

Fergus joined the Bank in September 2010 and is currently a Senior Economist in the Bank’s Monetary Strategy Team where he advises policymakers on the medium-term path of policy interest rates and conducts research using multiple micro-data sources. In particular, he uses household-level and firm-level data to answer questions about the transmission of macroeconomic policy along different dimensions. During his time at the Bank he has worked on various projects relevant to monetary and financial stability, including helping to design the use of UK macroprudential tools. He holds a DPhil from the University of Oxford and a Masters from the LSE.

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Fergus' Bank publications

// Publication // Working Paper

Monetary policy and birth rates: the effect...

Monetary policy and birth rates: the effect of mortgage rate pass-through on fertility
// Publication // Working Paper

The role of households’ borrowing constraints...

The role of households’ borrowing constraints in the transmission of monetary policy
// Publication // Working Paper

Mortgages, cash-flow shocks and local employment

Mortgages, cash-flow shocks and local employment
// Publication // Quarterly Bulletin

Mapping the UK financial system

Mapping the UK financial system

Fergus' Bank Underground blog posts

First-time buyers: how do they finance their purchases and what’s changed? - September 2020
Bitesize: The age evolution of first-time buyers - August 2020
Monetary Policy Transmission: Borrowing Constraints Matter! - May 2020
The birds, the bees and the Bank? The birth-rate channel of monetary policy - February 2020
Fixing ideas – The Slowing of Interest-rate Pass-through to Mortgagors - September 2019
Houses are assets not goods: taking the theory to the UK data - September 2019
Houses are assets not goods: What the difference between bulbs and flowers tells us about the housing market - September 2019
Diffraction through debt: the cash-flow effect of monetary policy - March 2019
Car insurance telematics: why the black box should become more transparent - October 2018
Helicopter money: setting the tale straight - August 2015
How China lost UK GDP in 22 working days - September 2015

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