The public economist: learning from our Citizens’ Panels about the UK economy
This article considers the results from our Citizens’ Panels survey and first public forecasting competition. It finds that the Covid pandemic led to a polarisation of expectations about unemployment and inflation, along with expectations of a marked increase in the former. The pandemic also led to a convergence in perceptions of local economic conditions across the UK, in contrast to the pre-pandemic regional divide where those in the south were found to be more positive than those in the north. This article also shows that panellists provided early information on the Covid pandemic, and that their responses can help to forecast macroeconomic indicators, such as changes in present and expected consumer prices and unemployment.
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