Agents' Summary of Business Conditions - September 2010

• The Agents reported a further softening in the pace of retail sales values growth. By contrast, consumer services turnover growth remained steady.
• Investment intentions remained little changed on the month. Overall, intentions are consistent with a gradual, rather than robust, pickup in spending.
• Export growth had picked up further. The rise in exports since early 2010 had mainly reflected strengthening world demand, although the lagged effect of the lower level of sterling had played an increasingly important role in recent months.
• Services turnover continued to rise modestly.
• The widespread pickup in manufacturing output had continued, reflecting stronger exports but also a rise in domestic demand.
• Construction output remained well below its level a year earlier.
• Credit conditions had become increasingly polarised in recent months, easing for those firms perceived to be better-quality credits, but remaining tight for many smaller firms, and those operating in certain sectors.
• Private sector employment intentions had been rising modestly in recent months, but contacts expected that improvement to be offset by cuts in public sector headcount.
• Pay settlements had been edging higher throughout 2010, although they remained moderate overall.
• Non-labour input costs continued to rise, but there were tentative signs that the annual inflation rate might have passed its peak.
• Contacts continued to report little pricing power. Output price inflation remained muted.
• Consumer price inflation appeared to have stabilised in recent months.
• The majority of contacts expected to pass on the 2011 VAT rise in full in January.

Agents' summary of business conditions - September 2010

• Agents' scores (xlsx)
• Definitions for the Agents’ scores
• Response to consultation on changes to Agents' scores