The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) regularly assesses how the economy has evolved relative to its forecasts.
In its February 2018 forecast, the MPC projected that GDP would grow by 1.8% in the year to 2019 Q1. The latest official data indicate that growth has been very close to that forecast.
However, the composition of GDP growth has been different to what was anticipated. The expected rotation of GDP growth away from consumer spending towards business investment and net trade has not materialised.
Business investment has been much weaker than anticipated, falling by just over 2% since the February 2018 Inflation Report (Table A) versus the 4% rise projected. That is likely to reflect the impact of Brexit-related uncertainty.