The Bank of England's climate-related financial disclosure 2026

The Bank has continued to integrate the implications of climate change into the delivery of its mission, across both its policy work and its own operational resilience.
Published on 25 June 2026

Message from Sarah John

I am pleased to publish the Bank of England’s climate-related financial disclosure for the year ended 28 February 2026. The Bank has a mandate to maintain monetary and financial stability for the people of the United Kingdom. To fulfil that mandate we need to understand and manage the material climate-related risks to our economy, our financial system and our own operations, which underpin our ability to operate effectively.

Over the past year, we have further integrated climate considerations across our functions – strengthening supervisory expectations for firms’ management of climate risks, deepening our assessment of macroeconomic and monetary policy impacts, and enhancing our analysis of financial stability risks. We have also met our first interim decarbonisation milestone for physical operations and continued to develop our analytical toolkit to assess risks to our balance sheet, while recognising the uncertainties inherent in these assessments.

Alongside this disclosure, we are updating our Climate Transition Plan, first published in 2023. The plan sets out our pathway to delivering the Bank’s 2040 net-zero target for physical operations, and how this contributes to operational resilience through prudent risk management and careful stewardship of public resources.

Together, these publications demonstrate our commitment to transparent, evidence-based management of climate‑related risks, supporting a resilient financial system and long-term UK growth.

Sarah John
Chief Operating Officer of the Bank of England

Progress highlights

 

In 25/26 the Bank: updated PRA expectations, deepened macro/monetary analysis, improved climate risk pricing insights; achieved 43% emissions cut vs 15/16 and financial assets less exposed than G7 peers.

1: Strategy

The Bank of England’s (Bank’s) mission is to promote the good of the people of the United Kingdom by maintaining monetary and financial stability. The physical effects of climate change and the transition to a net-zero economy (the transition) are relevant to the Bank’s mission because they could affect:

  • the safety and soundness of firms the Bank regulates;
  • the stability of the financial system;
  • the economic outlook in a way that could have a bearing on the appropriate monetary policy stance; and
  • the financial resources and physical assets available to deliver the Bank’s policy and operational commitments.

The Bank’s climate strategy is to address climate-related risks (climate risks) to the extent they are relevant to delivery of the Bank’s mission and reflect the objectives and remit of the Bank’s statutory policy committees specified by the Chancellor of the Exchequer in her annual letters (Annex 3). The strategy is organised across three pillars (Figure 1.1).

Figure 1.1: The three pillars of the Bank’s climate strategy

1: Enhancing the resilience of individual firms and the wider financial system to climate-related risks. 2: Enhancing the resilience of the Bank of England to climate-related risks. 3: Understanding how climate change and the transition to net zero impacts the macroeconomy

Footnotes

  • Source: Bank of England.

In his most recent speech, James Talbot (Executive Director, International Directorate and Executive Sponsor for Climate Change) reflected on the progress the Bank has made over the past 12 years in responding to climate change in pursuit of its objectives.footnote [1]

Over the last financial year, the Bank has continued to integrate the implications of climate change into its core functions in line with its mandate, making progress against the three pillars of its climate strategy.footnote [2]

Resilience of individual firms and the financial system to climate risks

The Bank continued to monitor climate risks to the financial system using the framework published in 2024.footnote [3] Recent analysis points to increasing evidence that climate risks to firms and financial stability are becoming more proximate.footnote [4] footnote [5]

Bank staff estimate that, in a severe but plausible scenario, if investors were to rapidly reprice financial assets, including government debt, corporate bonds and equities, to reflect climate risks, the resulting move in asset prices could be comparable to the moves seen in recent market stress episodes. A data collection by the Bank and Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) in 2025 has shown that UK banks could also face climate-related credit losses over coming years, particularly related to transition risks from sharp increases in energy and carbon prices.footnote [6]

Over the longer term, as physical risks from climate change intensify, reduced insurance coverage could transfer risks to households, businesses, banks, and governments.footnote [7] The Financial Policy Committee (FPC) has therefore highlighted that supporting insurability – including through investment in resilience to physical climate risks – would benefit UK financial stability.footnote [8] footnote [9] For example, collaboration between businesses, households, and governments, such as the Flood Re Build Back Better scheme, may help reduce the financial impacts of extreme weather events. These findings underline the need for individual financial firms to further strengthen their capabilities to price and manage climate risks, particularly using climate scenario analysis (CSA).

Since the PRA first set its supervisory expectations in 2019, some PRA-supervised firms have strengthened their climate risk capabilities. However, progress has been uneven, and further work is required for all firms to meet expectations. The PRA’s updated expectations (Supervisory Statement 5/25, SS5/25) responded to industry calls for greater clarity and guidance, supporting firms as they build resilience to climate risks.

To support implementation, the PRA is working with industry, including through the Climate Financial Risk Forum (CFRF),footnote [10] which provides a collaborative forum for firms to develop practical tools and guidance. The latest CFRF materials support firms in building a range of capabilities in areas such as resilience, adaptation, and scenario analysis.footnote [11] footnote [12] A collaborative approach between authorities and the UK financial sector will help ensure resilience to climate risks, in line with the PRA’s secondary objective to facilitate effective competition and the international competitiveness of the UK economy and its growth in the medium to long term.

Resilience of the Bank to climate risks

This year, the Bank achieved its first interim decarbonisation milestone with a 43% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (emissions) from physical operations since 2015/16, exceeding the targeted 40% reduction.

Alongside this disclosure, the Bank has published the second edition of its Climate Transition Plan (CTP), which updates the Bank’s strategy to reduce its emissions, including a recalculation of the transition pathway and a restatement of historical emissions to reflect methodological improvements. The CTP provides further information on the Bank’s 2025/26 emissions and its decarbonisation milestones.

The Bank has also taken further steps to incorporate CSA into its in-house credit rating methodology for sovereign issuers and financial counterparties. Credit ratings inform both exposure limits and the capital the Bank holds against these exposures. Box B places this work in the context of the Bank’s broader approach to managing climate risks to its balance sheet.

Understanding how climate change impacts the macroeconomy

In recent years, the Bank has sought to increase understanding of how climate change and the transition affect the macroeconomy over the shorter horizons relevant for monetary policy. Through the NGFS, it has worked with other central banks to assess these effects, finding increasing impacts on output and inflation, and therefore on monetary policy.

The NGFS Workstream on Monetary Policy (WSMP) has been central to this work. Chaired by James Talbot, it has developed a conceptual framework to understand how acute physical impacts from climate change and government transition policies affect the economy,footnote [13] and explored how these channels can be incorporated into macroeconomic models for practical use.footnote [14] In collaboration with the IMF, the WSMP published analysis quantifying the macroeconomic effects of alternative transition policy pathways and the implications for monetary policymakers.footnote [15] Its most recent report – Climate change and monetary policy strategy: a guide for central banks – has brought these insights together setting out a practical playbook on how central banks can assess different climate impacts in support of delivering their price stability mandates.

This work shows that, while climate policies are for governments, understanding the macroeconomic and financial system impacts of climate change and the transition is relevant for the Bank’s primary objectives of maintaining monetary and financial stability.footnote [16]

Box A: The Bank’s work to develop its CSA toolkit

Climate risk is complex, uncertain in both scale and timing and builds over time. As a result, both backward and forward-looking metrics can be informative, but neither directly quantifies climate-related financial impacts. Backward-looking metrics tend to underestimate physical climate risk as they rely on historical data and do not reflect potential future mitigation or adaptation. Forward-looking metrics incorporate planned future actions but do not directly measure financial risk exposures.

CSA provides a complementary approach. The scenarios are not forecasts, but hypothetical pathways that explore a range of severe yet plausible climate and macroeconomic outcomes. CSA estimates how these pathways could affect the value of financial assets. These estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty: for example, current scenario toolkits do not capture mechanisms such as environmental tipping points, compound risks, or wider social impacts. Nevertheless, the Bank considers CSA to be a key tool in assessing the financial risks posed by climate change.footnote [17]

As a core analytical tool, CSA is embedded across the Bank’s climate work. It is used to assess the effects of climate-related physical risks and transition pathways on the UK economy, the financial system, and individual firms, and to inform the Bank’s own financial risk management and operational decisions. CSA supports policy analysis, risk assessment, and the Bank’s approach to financial resilience.

The Bank has consistently invested in strengthening and evolving its CSA toolkit in line with its remit.footnote [18] This development has progressed through three mutually reinforcing channels.

First, the Bank has played a leading international role in developing CSA tools and materials through the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), helping to establish a globally consistent analytical foundation for central banks and supervisors.footnote [19] It has contributed to the NGFS short-term scenarios, including publication of an additional analysis of macrofinancial dynamics,footnote [20] And has recently led NGFS work in collaboration with the National Institute of Economic and Social Research to develop CSA relevant for monetary policy applications.footnote [21] The Bank has also benefited from the European Central Bank’s leadership of the NGFS Work Stream on Scenario Analysis and remains closely involved in developing the next generation of NGFS climate scenarios (Phase VI), which aim in particular to enhance the assessment of physical risk.footnote [22]

Second, the Bank has focused on advancing practical implementation of CSA. Internally, this has included continued methodological development and application of climate scenarios to support policy analysis and risk assessment across the Bank. This includes the Bank’s 2021 Climate Biennial Exploratory Scenario (CBES) exercise; analysis of the financial stability implications of abrupt repricing published in the December 2025 Financial Stability Report; and analysis outlined in a speech by Sarah Breeden (Deputy Governor, Financial Stability). This work helps ensure that CSA remains a usable and decision relevant tool, rather than a purely exploratory exercise. The use of CSA in the Bank’s assessment of risk to its own operations is set out in Section 2.

Third, the Bank has continued to support capability-building across the financial sector. In SS5/25, the PRA set out clearer expectations for firms’ use cases, tailoring and application of CSA, proportionate to the materiality of their climate risk exposures. Complementing this work, the Bank has supported the CFRF’s development of industry-led guidance and case studies to help firms translate climate scenarios into practical risk management, decision making, and business planning,footnote [23] including the release of an updated CSA tool in 2025.footnote [24] In parallel, through the NGFS Technical Assistance for Climate Scenarios programme, the Bank has also contributed to international efforts to support jurisdictions in applying climate scenarios in a proportionate and consistent way.

Taken together, the Bank’s work focuses on strengthening the CSA toolkit, ensuring it can inform decision-making, be responsive to emerging evidence, and supportive of consistent approaches to climate risk analysis domestically and internationally.

2: Risk management

Physical operations

The Bank assesses climate risks arising from the operation of its property, the manufacture of bank notes and other non-financial activities (physical operations).

In line with its restatement policy and to improve accuracy and accountability,footnote [25] in 2025/26, the Bank has restated its historical emissions, including the 2024/25 emissions and the 2015/16 baseline against which progress is measured. Further information on the emissions restatement is set out in the Bank’s 2026 CTP.

In 2025/26 the Bank’s emissions from physical operations were 35,306 tCO2e, representing a small year-on-year decrease relative to the restated 2024/25 emissions of 35,728 tCO2e. Further details are provided in Annex 1.

This year, the Bank has begun using CSA to assess the potential impacts of flooding and subsidence across its estate. This includes use of a combined flood risk metric covering coastal, pluvial and fluvial sources, and British Geological Survey projections of subsidence risk to 2070; both analyses are based on an RCP8.5 scenario. The results indicate risks consistent with those faced by commercial buildings in the south-east, but do not identify any site-specific vulnerabilities requiring adaptation in the short to medium term.

Financial operations

The Bank also assesses the climate risks to the market operations that it engages in to achieve its monetary policy and financial stability objectives. This includes holding fixed-income instruments and offering secured lending and repo to financial counterparties.footnote [26] The financial exposures covered by this disclosure are set out in Table 2.A and are consistent with those reported in the Bank’s Annual Report and Accounts as of 28 February 2026.

Table 2.A: Financial exposures covered by this disclosure (a)

Exposure

£ billions, end-February 2026

Purpose

Composition

Asset Purchase Facility (APF) sovereign holdings

382.1

Mandated by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), as part of its asset purchase programme. Held in a separate legal vehicle and indemnified by HM Treasury.

UK government bonds (gilts).

Bank’s Own Securities Holdings (OSH)

24.1

For policy implementation, and to fund the Bank’s policy functions.

Gilts, other sovereign, sub-sovereign, supranational and agency bonds.

Short-Term Repo (STR), Indexed Long-Term Repo (ILTR), and Term Funding Scheme with Additional Incentives for SMEs (TFSME)

TFSME: 41.9

Combination of influencing market interest rates to deliver MPC decisions and ensuring firms have access to sufficient central bank reserves.

Counterparties are banks, building societies and investment firms.(b)

STR: 98.3

ILTR: 70.4

Footnotes

  • Source: Bank of England.
  • (a) The value of APF holdings in Table 2.A are stated at fair value, while the OSH portfolio is stated at fair value plus accrued interest. Figures include mid-to-bid valuation adjustment.
  • (b) Investment firms refer to ‘Broker Dealers’ who are only eligible for the STR and ILTR. For more information, please refer to results and usage data.

To assess climate risk in its financial operations, the Bank uses a combination of point in time, forward-looking and scenario analysis metrics. Despite the challenges outlined in Box C, scenario analysis remains the best available tool to quantify climate-related financial risks to the Bank’s balance sheet.footnote [27]

Asset holdings

Point in time metrics including carbon footprint

The Weighted Average Carbon Intensity (WACI) of a portfolio is based on the carbon-intensity of its issuers and provides a simple proxy for the portfolio’s exposure to transition risk, based on current emission levels.footnote [28] footnote [29]

The WACIs of the APF and the Bank’s OSH portfolios remain materially lower than that of a G7 reference portfolio. The WACI of the assets held in the APF continued to decline year on year, reaching 184 tCO2e/£mn GDP in 2026. Given the APF’s monetary policy objectives, the portfolio is comprised entirely of gilts, so this reduction reflects changes in the carbon intensity of the UK economy. By contrast, the WACI of the OSH portfolio – although materially lower than that of a G7 reference portfolio – increased from 278 tCO2e/£mn to 310 in 2026. This increase was driven by higher portfolio weights on issuers with relatively higher carbon intensities, reflecting the Bank’s policy objectives, return considerations and risk management. These metrics are calculated on a production basis (Chart 2.1).

Consumption-based emissions intensities are materially higher for all portfolios, reflecting the fact that the issuers in the Bank’s portfolios are advanced economies that are largely net importers of carbon-intensive goods and services (Table A2.1).footnote [30]

Chart 2.1: WACI of the Bank’s asset holdings (a) (b) (c) (d)

Footnotes

  • Sources: World Bank public sector debt data for face value of debt outstanding for G7 countries. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and MSCI for emissions (2021, 2022 and 2023). World Bank GDP $ PPP (2017 constant prices, for 2021, 2022 and 2023, converted to GBP). Government of Canada Emissions and GDP data. Bank calculations.
  • (a) Due to the lag in reporting of national carbon emissions, the emissions data for the 2024, 2025 and 2026 portfolios are from 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively. Where reported national emissions data are unavailable, estimated emissions are used from the Bank’s climate data provider, MSCI. The Bank will continue to review the most appropriate options for addressing missing emissions data on an ongoing basis.
  • (b) The G7 reference portfolio is calculated by weighting G7 countries according to the face value of debt outstanding during Q1 for each reporting period or the latest available data from the World Bank.
  • (c) Guaranteed agency bonds are attributed the carbon intensity of their sovereign. Non-guaranteed agencies and supranational agencies are excluded from the calculation of the WACI, in line with PCAF guidance. This affects <0.5% of the portfolio. Non-guaranteed agencies and supranational agencies are included in financed emissions numbers, where their exclusion would lead to an understatement of emissions.
  • (d) Please refer to Table A2.1, footnote (a).
Forward-looking metrics

Implied Temperature Rise (ITR) metrics estimate the global average temperature increase that would occur if global carbon budgets were exceeded by the same proportion as the sovereigns in the portfolio. The metric provides a simple proxy for the portfolio’s exposure to transition risk, based on expected future emissions reductions.

Assuming countries’ emissions fall in line with their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), the ITR of the APF and the OSH portfolios is 1.64oC and 1.66oC, respectively. Under an alternative assumption that emissions evolve in line with currently implemented climate policies, the ITR increases modestly to 1.68oC for the APF and 1.72oC for the OSH. In both cases, the ITR remains marginally lower than that of a G7 reference portfolio (Table A2.1).

Scenario analysis on asset holdings

The Bank uses scenario analysis to help understand the climate risks in its asset portfolios and to estimate potential financial losses. The analysis applies NGFS Phase V climate scenarios to model potential shocks to the risk-free component of interest rates and sovereign credit risk premia over a horizon to 2050.

Concerns about the academic evidence underpinning physical risk damage estimates in the NGFS Phase V scenarios mean that the resulting physical risk impacts are subject to heightened uncertainty.footnote [31] These issues, and their implications for the scenario analysis results, are discussed in Box C.

The largest bond price declines occur under the Net Zero 2050 scenario, with the value of the APF and OSH falling by 8.8% and 4.8% respectively (Chart 2.2). Losses under Net Zero 2050 are primarily driven by transition risks impacting the short end of the curve, reflecting higher interest rates as monetary policy responds to inflationary pressures arising from elevated carbon pricing.footnote [32] Shocks at the long end of the curve are exacerbated by modest increases in risk premia, driven by the crystallisation of physical risks. By contrast, losses under the Current Policies scenario are entirely driven by physical risks, which affect sovereign credit risk premia and materialise over longer time horizons and mainly affect long maturity securities in the APF.footnote [33] There is no policy rate shock in the Current Policies scenario, as climate policies evolve broadly in line with market expectations, resulting in no inflationary surprises requiring a monetary policy response.

The analysis is conservative. It assumes instantaneous market repricing to reflect expected shocks to sovereign yields under each scenario. This tail risk assumption is applied to estimate the impact of a severe, worst-case repricing outcome across the climate scenarios assessed. Losses associated with movements in sovereign yields should not be interpreted as the macroeconomic cost of different scenarios. From a macroeconomic perspective, the impact of different climate scenarios on economic variables, such as real GDP, is likely to be more informative than changes in interest rates.

The metrics setting out the climate risks to the Bank’s asset holdings are also summarised in Annex 2, Table A2.1.

Chart 2.2: Impact of climate-scenarios on the Bank’s sovereign bond portfolios (a) (b)

Footnotes

  • Sources: Refer to Annex 1 of the April 2024 Quarterly Bulletin article for a full breakdown of data sources used in the Bank’s model. Bank analysis.
  • (a) Analysis undertaken on 91% of the APF portfolio and 74% of the own securities holdings at end-February 2026. Analysis excludes securities with the shortest remaining time to maturities. This is because these securities are less likely to be subject to a future climate-related repricing event and are relatively insensitive to interest rate shocks.
  • (b) Scenarios used in this analysis are NGFS Phase V scenarios. Box C for discussion of uncertainty surrounding physical risk damage estimates in the Phase V scenarios.

Secured Lending and Repo Operations

Point in time metrics including carbon footprint

The WACI of the Bank’s secured lending and repo operations reflects the carbon-intensity of its financial counterparties and provides a simple proxy for their exposure to transition risk.

The overall carbon-intensity of the Bank’s financial counterparties is driven almost entirely by Scope 3 emissions, which reflect the emissions of real economy borrowers financed by those counterparties, rather than by Scope 1 and 2 emissions associated with their own operations.footnote [34]

The combined Scope 3 WACI of the Bank’s repo and secured lending operations remains significantly lower than that implied by lending to a sample of large international banks (Table A2.2). This reflects both the composition of UK bank’s loan books and the structure of the UK economy to which they lend.

Between 2025 and 2026, the Scope 3 WACI increased from 762.6 tCO2/£mn of interest revenue to 998.2 tCO2/£mn. This increase reflects changes in utilisation patterns across the Bank’s facilities (including the unwinding of TFSME and increased usage of STR and ILTR) as well as shifts in the types of firms drawing on these facilities.

Scenario analysis on secured lending and repo operations

The Bank uses scenario analysis to translate information on its financial counterparties’ loan books into potential impacts on their Common Equity Tier 1 (CET 1) ratios under a severe climate scenario.

Under a High Transition Risks scenario, the weighted average CET1 ratio across the Bank’s financial counterparties could fall by c.2.0 percentage points (ppts) of risk-weighted assets (RWAs). These results are derived from desk-based, top-down analysis using a set of conservative assumptions. While the implied reductions in CET1 ratios indicate a material impact on firms’ financial resilience, they are smaller than the CET1 ratio reductions typically observed in the Bank’s regular stress testing exercises.footnote [35]

The metrics setting out the climate risks to the Bank’s secured lending and repo operations are also summarised in Annex 2, Table A2.2.

Box B: Overview of the Bank’s balance sheet risk management levers

Over time, the Bank has taken a range of steps to mitigate climate risks to its balance sheet against a range of severe but plausible physical and transition climate risk scenarios. These include measures to manage risks to asset holdings and counterparties covered in this disclosure, as well as risks to the collateral supporting the Bank’s secured lending and repo operations. Table 1 summarises the measures adopted to date.

Table 1: Measures adopted to manage climate risks to the Bank’s balance sheet

Exposure

Materiality of exposure

Risk mitigation approach

Description

Last updated

Residential mortgage collateral

£420 billion of collateral (60% of all collateral) (a)

Eligibility criteria

Under the Domestic Minimum Energy Efficiency Standards, rental properties with an EPC rating of F or G cannot legally be let. To mitigate risks associated with non-compliance with government regulation, from 2024 properties rated F or G, as well as properties with missing EPC ratings were made ineligible as collateral in the SMF.

2024

Haircut adjustment

Mortgages secured on properties with low energy-efficiency ratings are more exposed to energy price shocks, which could increase the likelihood of borrower default. To mitigate these risks, from 2024 the Bank has applied higher haircuts to mortgages secured on properties with low EPC ratings, with methodological developments implemented in 2025.

In addition, increased actual or perceived risks of flooding or subsidence could affect property prices through expectations of higher insurance premia or the withdrawal of insurance coverage. To reflect these risks, the Bank adjusted haircuts to mortgages secured on properties located in areas with elevated flood risk in 2024, and to reflect subsidence risk since 2025.

2025

Corporate bond collateral

<1% of all collateral

Eligibility criteria

Consistent with the approach taken in the Bank’s previous Corporate Bond Purchase Scheme, bonds issued by corporates that derive revenue from thermal coal mining will not be eligible as collateral.

2026

Haircut adjustment

Issuers can be exposed to potential financial risks connected to the adjustment of the economy towards net zero. To reflect this, the Bank will apply haircut add-ons to bonds from issuers in relevant sectors as needed to protect the Bank against financial risks.

2026

Exposures to financial counterparties via SMF and TFSME

£211 billion

Reflected in in-house credit ratings

Financial institutions that are exposed to significant physical or transition risk may incur losses, increasing their credit risk. The Bank has sought to estimate these risks using scenario analysis and, since 2026, incorporated the resulting estimates into its in-house credit rating methodology. Credit ratings inform both exposure limits and the amount of capital the Bank holds against these exposures.

2026

Exposure to non-UK sovereign issuers via the Bank's OSH

£24 billion

Reflected in in-house credit ratings

Sovereign issuers that are exposed to significant physical or transition risk may face higher fiscal pressures over time, increasing their credit risk. The Bank has sought to estimate these risks using scenario analysis and, since 2025, incorporated the resulting estimates into its in-house credit rating methodology. Credit ratings inform both exposure limits and the amount of capital the Bank holds against these exposures.

2025

Footnotes

Box C: Uncertainty in estimates of the economic impact of climate change

Since 2025, the Bank has used NGFS Phase V climate scenarios (Phase V Scenarios) for its own scenario analysis. Like many climate scenarios, these rely on a ‘damage function’ to translate increases in global mean temperature into changes in country-level GDP. These GDP impacts are a key driver of the credit risk shocks observed under the Current Policies scenario (Chart 2.2).

GDP impacts in the Phase V Scenarios are derived from a damage function estimated using academic research by Kotz et al (2024), which at that time had undergone peer review. This research implies significantly higher climate-related GDP losses than those estimated in earlier studies. However, damage estimates vary widely across the literature, reflecting the significant uncertainty inherent in modelling the economic impacts of unprecedented climate change.

Following the publication of the Bank’s 2025 disclosure, the academic research by Kotz et al (2024) was retracted due to methodological critiques. This raises the possibility that the Phase V Scenarios may not provide an accurate estimate of the economic impacts of climate change.

The NGFS is developing updated Phase VI Scenarios, which are expected to be released in 2026. In the interim, the Bank has adjusted the Phase V Scenarios by applying a range of alternative damage functions drawn from the academic literature.footnote [36]

Applying these alternative damage functions produces a wide range of plausible outcomes for sovereign bond portfolio losses under a Current Policies scenario. Under most of the alternative assumptions explored, estimated losses are smaller than those implied by the Phase V Scenarios. However, under pessimistic, tail-risk assumptions about the scale of economic damages, losses to the Bank’s portfolios could be comparable to those under the NGFS Phase V Scenarios (Chart A).

Chart A: Potential losses to the Bank’s asset holdings under a Current Policies scenario using a range of damage functions

Footnotes

Annexes

  • Table A1.1 summarises the Bank’s reported emissions from physical operations for the current year (2025/26), the previous year (2024/25) and the 2015/16 baseline, against which progress is measured.

    Emissions reported for years prior to 2025/26 have been restated to reflect methodological improvements introduced since the CTP was last published in 2022/23. Further information on this restatement is set out in the 2026 CTP.

    Table A1.1: The Bank’s emissions from physical operations (a)

    Type of emissions (b)

    2025/26 (tCO2e)

    2024/25 Revised (tCO2e)

    2015/16 Revised
    (tCO2e)

    Scope 1

    2,054

    2,275

    3,376

    Scope 2: Electricity (market-based)

    5,728

    Scope 2: Electricity (location-based) (c)

    5,051

    5,482

    15,853

    Scope 3 category 1: purchased goods and services

    17,263

    16,998

    29,861

    Scope 3 category 2: capital goods

    5,461

    4,310

    8,948

    Scope 3 category 3: fuel- and energy-related activities

    2,295

    2,169

    4,329

    Scope 3 category 4: upstream transportation and distribution

    3

    3

    221

    Scope 3 category 5: waste generated in operations

    13

    14

    88

    Scope 3 category 6: business travel

    4,601

    6,014

    6,740

    Scope 3 category 7: employee commuting

    3,616

    3,945

    3,141

    Total

    35,306

    35,728

    62,432

    Footnotes

    • Source: Bank of England.
    • (a) Emissions are calculated using a third-party carbon accounting software platform, with methodologies, data sources and emissions factor hierarchies defined by the Bank. Further detail is provided in Annex 2 of the 2026 CTP.
    • (b) Under the GHG Protocol, Scope 1 emissions are direct emissions (eg from running boilers), Scope 2 emissions are indirect emissions from electricity use (eg from powering its office buildings), and Scope 3 emissions are upstream and downstream value chain emissions (eg emissions from buying products from suppliers and emissions from products when customers use them).
    • (c) Location based emissions are calculated using average grid electricity emissions factors and do not reflect contractual arrangements (eg renewable energy procurement). They are shown for comparison only and are excluded from total emissions, which are market based.
  • Table A2.1 summarises the metrics the Bank uses to assess the climate risks to its asset holdings. The key themes underpinning these metrics are described in the main body of the disclosure.

    Table A2.1: The climate risk metrics reported for the Bank’s asset holdings (a)

    Metric

    Metric type

    End-Feb 2026

    End-Feb 2025

    End-Feb 2024

    APF

    Production WACI (tCO2e/£mn GDP)

    Point in time

    184

    202

    209

    Consumption WACI (tCO2e/£mn total consumption expenditure)

    Point in time

    333

    344

    359

    Financed Emissions (production-based MtCO2)

    Point in time

    70.2

    96.6

    114.3

    ITR (oC)

    Forward looking

    NDCs: 1.64

    Current Policies: 1.68

    NDCs: 1.65

    Current Policies: 1.71

    NDCs: 1.63

    Current Policies: 1.69

    Change in portfolio value (b)

    (% in different scenarios)

    Scenario analysis

    NDCs: -6.7

    Current Policies: -3.3

    Net Zero: -8.7

    NDCs: -7.6

    Current Policies: -3.6

    Net Zero: -9.4

    Below 2oC: -3.7

    Current Policies: -3.2

    Divergent net zero: -9.3

    OSH

    Production WACI

    Point in time

    310

    278

    254

    Consumption WACI

    Point in time

    448

    411

    406

    Financed Emissions

    Point in time

    7

    5

    4.5

    ITR

    Forward looking

    NDCs: 1.66

    Current Policies: 1.72

    NDCs: 1.66

    Current Policies: 1.72

    NDCs: 1.65

    Current Policies: 1.70

    Change in portfolio value (% in different scenarios)

    Scenario analysis

    NDCs: -3.3

    Current Policies: -0.8

    Net Zero: -4.8

    NDCs: -3.7

    Current Policies: -0.9

    Net Zero: -5.5

    Below 2oC: -1.7

    Current Policies: -1.1

    Divergent net zero: -5.6

    G7 reference portfolio

    Production WACI

    Point in time

    357

    395

    384

    Consumption WACI

    Point in time

    480

    510

    526

    Financed Emissions

    Point in time

    144

    196

    217

    ITR

    Forward looking

    NDCs: 1.68 Current Policies: 1.74

    NDCs: 1.69 Current Policies: 1.73

    NDCs: 1.68 Current Policies: 1.74

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank analysis. World Bank public sector debt for face value of debt outstanding for G7 countries. United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and MSCI for emissions (2021, 2022 and 2023). World Bank GDP $ PPP (2017 constant prices, for 2021, 2022 and 2023, converted to GBP). Government of Canada Emissions and GDP data. World Bank Consumption Expenditure $ PPP (2017 constant prices, for 2021, 2022 and 2023, converted to GBP). OECD PPP FX Rates. Climate Action Tracker, Country Assessments, for reference emissions pathways and sovereign issuers NDCs and Current policies emissions pathways to 2030. NGFS scenario explorer data. IPCC for global carbon budgets and transient climate response from cumulative emissions estimates. Bank calculations.
    • (a) Certain information contained herein (the ‘Information’) is sourced from/copyright of MSCI Inc., MSCI ESG Research LLC, or their affiliates (‘MSCI’), or information providers (together the ‘MSCI Parties’) and may have been used to calculate scores, signals, or other indicators. The Information is for internal use only and may not be reproduced or disseminated in whole or part without prior written permission. The Information may not be used for, nor does it constitute, an offer to buy or sell, or a promotion or recommendation of, any security, financial instrument or product, trading strategy, or index, nor should it be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance. Some funds may be based on or linked to MSCI indexes, and MSCI may be compensated based on the fund’s assets under management or other measures. MSCI has established an information barrier between index research and certain Information. None of the Information in and of itself can be used to determine which securities to buy or sell or when to buy or sell them. The Information is provided ‘as is’ and the user assumes the entire risk of any use it may make or permit to be made of the Information. No MSCI Party warrants or guarantees the originality, accuracy, and/or completeness of the Information and each expressly disclaims all express or implied warranties. No MSCI Party shall have any liability for any errors or omissions in connection with any Information herein, or any liability for any direct, indirect, special, punitive, consequential or any other damages (including lost profits) even if notified of the possibility of such damages.
    • (b) The 2025 and 2026 scenario analyses use the NGFS Phase V scenarios. The 2024 scenario analysis was based on the NGFS Phase 3 scenarios, with the additional inclusion of NGFS Phase 4 estimates of acute physical risks impact on GDP.

    Table A2.2 summarises the metrics the Bank uses to assess the climate risks to its secured lending and repo operations. The key themes underpinning these metrics are described in the main body of the disclosure.

    Table A2.2: The climate risk metrics reported for the Bank’s secured lending and repo operations (a) (b) (c) (d)

    Metric

    Metric type

    End-Feb 2026

    End-Feb 2025

    STR, ILTR, TFSME combined

    Scope 1 and 2 WACI (tCO2/£mn revenue) (e)

    Point in time

    1.7

    2.0

    Scope 3 WACI (tCO2/£mn interest revenues) (f)

    Point in time

    998.2

    762.6

    CET 1 ratio (climate shock) (ppt) (g)

    Scenario analysis

    -2.0

    -1.7

    G7 GSIB

    Scope 1 and 2 WACI

    Point in time

    3.7

    2.3

    Scope 3 WACI

    Point in time

    2053.8

    2616.6

    CET 1 ratio

    Scenario analysis

    -2.4 ppt

    -2.5 ppt

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank estimation model, refer to Box C. MSCI. LSEG. Firm annual reports, Pillar III credit risk disclosures, and environmental disclosures. NGFS Phase V Scenario Explorer, CBES variable pathways and Energy Performance of Buildings Register.
    • (a) Please refer to Table A2.1, footnote (a).
    • (b) The GSIB G7 reference portfolio is derived as firms in the FSB’s 2024 list of Globally Systemically Important Banks which are domiciled in G7 countries. Weighted by outstanding loans as at reporting periods ending 2025.
    • (c) Changes in CET1 ratios are expressed relative to a hypothetical baseline scenario without climate risk.
    • (d) The Bank makes conservative assumptions around the reporting of undrawn exposures as part of its Scope 3 financed emissions and WACI, guided by PCAF guidance.
    • (e) Scope 3 captures the emissions of the real economy borrowers that the Bank‘s financial counterparties lend to. Given significant data challenges Scope 3 emissions are estimated based on an in-house model. The Bank’s climate-related financial disclosure 2025 provides further information.
    • (f) Scope 1 and 2 capture the carbon-intensity of the Bank’s counterparties’ own operations.
    • (g) These numbers are desk-based, top-down estimates derived using a series of conservative assumptions.
  • The PRC

    The PRA’s statutory objectives include both primary and secondary objectives. The primary objectives are the general objective, to promote the safety and soundness of the firms the PRA regulates, and the insurance objective, to contribute to the securing of an appropriate degree of protection for insurance policyholders. The secondary objectives are subject to the primary objectives and are to facilitate: (i) effective competition; and (ii) the international competitiveness of the UK economy and its growth in the medium to long term. Climate is relevant to both the primary and secondary objectives.

    In addition, the PRA must have regard to regulatory principles that are set out in statute when discharging its general functions, including ‘the need to contribute towards achieving compliance by the Secretary of State with section 1 of the Climate Change Act 2008 (UK net-zero emissions target) and section 5 of the Environment Act 2021 (environmental targets) where each regulator considers the exercise of its functions to be relevant to the making of such a contribution’.

    The PRA must also have regard to recommendations from HM Treasury when considering how to advance its primary and secondary objectives and the application of the regulatory principles. Recommendations are issued at least once every Parliament. At the time of publication, the most recent PRC remit and recommendations letter was issued in December 2025.

    The FPC

    The FPC’s statutory objectives include both primary and secondary objectives. The primary objective is to contribute to achieving the Bank’s financial stability objective. The secondary objective is subject to the primary objective and is to support the economic policy of the UK Government, including its objectives for growth and employment. Climate is relevant to both the primary and secondary objectives.

    The FPC’s primary and secondary objectives are refined and informed by HM Treasury’s remit and recommendations letter, which is issued at least once every calendar year. At the time of publication, the most recent FPC remit and recommendations letter was issued in November 2025.

    The MPC

    The MPC’s statutory objectives include both primary and secondary objectives. The primary objective is to maintain price stability. The secondary objective is subject to the primary objective and is to support the economic policy of the UK Government, including its objectives for growth and employment. Climate is relevant to both the primary and secondary objectives.

    The MPC’s primary and secondary objective is refined and informed by HM Treasury’s remit letter, which is issued at least once every calendar year. At the time of publication, the most recent MPC remit letter was issued in November 2025.

    The Financial Market Infrastructure Committee (FMIC)

    The Bank as Financial Markets Infrastructure (FMI) regulator, has both primary and secondary objectives. The primary objective is to protect and enhance the stability of the UK financial system. In exercising its FMI functions, the Bank also has a secondary objective, which is subject to the primary objective, and is to, as far as reasonably possible, facilitate innovation in the provision of central counterparty and central securities depository services with a view to improving the quality, efficiency, and economy of the services. Climate is relevant to both the primary and secondary objectives.

    In addition, the Bank must have regard to regulatory principles when exercising its FMI functions, including ‘the desirability of sustainable growth in the economy of the United Kingdom in the medium or long term, including in a way consistent with contributing towards achieving compliance by the Secretary of State with section 1 of the Climate Change Act 2008 (UK net-zero emissions target) and section 5 of the Environment Act 2021 (environmental targets) where the Bank considers the exercise of its FMI functions to be relevant to the making of such a contribution’.

    FMIC should also have regard to recommendations from HM Treasury when considering how to advance its primary and secondary objectives and the application of the regulatory principles. Recommendations are issued at least once every Parliament. At the time of publication, the most recent FMIC remit and recommendations letter was issued in July 2025.

  1. Measure, Model, Tackle, Tailor: The Bank of England’s approach to assessing and managing climate impacts across its core objectives, a speech by James Talbot, Executive Director, International Directorate, Bank of England.

  2. An overview of the Bank’s approach to governance of its climate-related activities is set out in Section 1 of the Bank’s climate-related financial disclosure 2024, with one exception: In April 2025, Sarah John succeeded Ben Stimson as Deputy Governor, Chief Operating Officer, with responsibility for climate risks to the Bank’s physical operations.

  3. This work is in line with the 2024 and 2025 remit and recommendations to the Financial Policy Committee.

  4. Financial Stability Report – December 2025.

  5. Weathering the storm: stability in a changing climate, a speech by Sarah Breeden, Deputy Governor Financial Stability, Bank of England.

  6. The analysis in this paragraph relies on climate scenarios, which are subject to considerable uncertainty and do not capture mechanisms such as environmental tipping points, compound risks, or social impacts such as migration. It also use physical risk estimates which are calibrated based on recent academic research, some of which has been subject to post-publication critique and is undergoing further peer review (Box C). Further information on these topics is set out in Box A, Box C and the Bank’s December 2025 Financial Stability Report.

  7. Mind the gap: a UK microprudential perspective on general insurance protection gaps.

  8. Financial Stability Report, December 2025.

  9. Complementing this UK-focused work, the Bank has contributed to international work on insurance protection gaps, including the International Association of Insurance Supervisors Global Insurance Market Report special topic edition on natural catastrophe risks and a joint IAIS-World Bank input paper for the G20 Sustainable Finance Working Group focused on identifying and addressing those gaps.

  10. The Bank co-convenes the CFRF with the Financial Conduct Authority.

  11. The October 2025 CFRF release of materials included a set of case studies quantifying the financial impacts from climate scenarios, an online climate scenario narrative tool, a toolkit to help financial institutions integrate resilience into financial decision making, a report on financial institutions’ climate-related training needs, and a risk professional’s guide to physical risk assessments.

  12. The Bank has continued to engage in international fora to reinforce the climate-related resilience of UK firms and the UK financial system. For example, the Bank contributed to the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) short-term climate scenarios, supporting stronger integration of near-term climate risks within supervisory frameworks.

  13. This includes the following three NGFS publications: Climate change, the macroeconomy and monetary policy, The green transition and the macroeconomy: a monetary policy perspective and Acute physical impacts form climate change and monetary policy.

  14. The NGFS Climate Macroeconomic Modelling Handbook.

  15. ‘The macroeconomic effects and monetary policy implications of climate mitigation policies: results from a new quantitative analysis’, NGFS Technical document, June 2026.

  16. The heat is on: why monetary policy makers are increasingly focusing on the impact of climate risks - speech by James Talbot; and Measure, Model, Tackle, Tailor: The Bank of England’s approach to assessing and managing climate impacts across its core objectives - speech by James Talbot.

  17. Measuring climate – related financial risks using scenario analysis.

  18. Remit and recommendations for the Financial Policy Committee 2024 and Remit and recommendations for the Financial Policy Committee 2025.

  19. NGFS scenarios.

  20. Two Lenses on Climate Risk: A Dual Macroeconomic Reading of the NGFS Short-Term Scenarios.

  21. ‘Climate change and monetary policy strategy: a guide for central banks’, NGFS Technical document, June 2026.

  22. Box C highlights work the Bank is currently doing on CSA as part of its own financial risk management.

  23. The October 2025 CFRF release of materials included a set of case studies quantifying the financial impacts from climate scenarios, a toolkit to help financial institutions integrate resilience into financial decision-making, a report on financial institutions’ climate-related training needs, and a risk professional’s guide to physical risk assessments. Earlier CSA-related materials include: Mobilising adaptation finance to build resilience.

  24. Climate Financial Risk Forum.

  25. Further information on the Bank’s restatement policy is set out in the Bank’s 2023 Climate Transition Plan, section A2.5.4.

  26. More information about the Bank’s lending facilities is set out in this guide: Bank of England Market Operations Guide: Our tools.

  27. Where relevant, underlying methodologies have been set out in more detail in previous Bank climate-related financial disclosures. In line with standard practice, data for the years 2024 and 2025 are restated, where relevant (eg because external source data used to calculate the metrics have been revised).

  28. WACI is in tCO2e/£m, with GDP in constant 2017 prices. The constant prices approach ensures WACI does not deflate over time due to inflation in GDP.

  29. Sovereign financed emissions (SFE) is an alternative carbon footprint measure. It is not adjusted for the size of the portfolio and increases with portfolio size. This means, unlike the WACI, it does not provide a sense of transition risks relative to the size of an institution or their ability to absorb risks. The SFE of the APF fell from 96.6 in 2025 to 70.2 MtCO2 in 2026. The SFE for OSH increased from 5 in 2025 to 7 MtCO2.

  30. Production-based metrics are determined by all goods and services produced in a country. Consumption-based metrics measure emissions associated with goods and services consumed in a country, regardless of where they were produced. Please also refer to Table A2.1 footnote (a).

  31. NGFS statement regarding physical risk estimates in Phase V of NGFS long-term scenarios.

  32. Across all scenarios, the APF is exposed to greater losses than the Bank’s own securities holdings. This is because the duration of bonds in the APF is longer than those in the Bank’s own securities holdings, and hence more sensitive to interest rate shocks.

  33. The Bank assesses physical risks to 2050, consistent with the NGFS scenario horizon. This could understate impacts where markets price in climate-related effects over longer time horizons.

  34. Given significant data challenges Scope 3 emissions are estimated based on an in-house model. Refer to The Bank of England’s climate-related financial Disclosures 2025 for more detail.

  35. The reductions are slightly larger, but of a similar order of magnitude, to the cumulative losses observed in the CBES. This reflects the more conservative assumptions in the Bank‘s approach, which bring forward losses that may otherwise materialise later.

  36. Howard and Sterner (2025) for a literature review and meta-analysis.