He says that: "As in previous banking cycles, a period of strong growth, low interest rates and rapid increases in asset prices lead to over confidence and bad lending at the top of the cycle; defaults, deleveraging and retrenchment follow in the downswing. But the way this old story has unfolded through the new credit markets has sprung some unpleasant surprises, including the speed with which losses in just one market in one country - the housing market in the US - have disrupted wider credit markets in all advanced economies."