Economic commentary

Quarterly Bulletin 1986 Q3
Published on 01 September 1986
  • Slower economic growth among the industrial countries in early 1986 partly reflected a fall in exports, especially to oil producers.

  • Growth should strengthen in the second half as consumers have yet to respond fully to the increase in their real incomes, brought about by the fall in inflation.

  • The stance of policy in the major countries remains cautious. Some risks to growth remain, including the persistence of large current account imbalances and protectionist pressures.

  • In the United Kingdom the growth of output remained weak in the first half of the year. The growth of employment slowed and unemployment increased.

  • Consumer demand strengthened in the second quarter and is likely to be the main source of growth in the second half of the year.

  • The strength of mortgage borrowing has contributed to a rise in the personal sector's ratio of debt to income.

  • The United Kingdom's current account surplus was a little under £1 billion in the first half, as the oil surplus fell and the growth of manufactured exports remained weak. But the depreciation of sterling should improve competitiveness.

PDFEconomic commentary

Other Quarterly Bulletin 1986 Q3 articles

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