General assessment

The short-term outlook for the world economy has altered little over the past three months. Growth in the major six overseas economies for calendar 1992 is unlikely to exceed 2%, which, although low by past standards, is above the 1.1% achieved in 1991. But the overall picture conceals significant changes among the main economies, with the revival in the United States not matched elsewhere. There have been differences too in policy responses. Over the past three months, interest rates have been reduced in the United States and Japan, and in the latter there has also been a degree of fiscal expansion. In Germany interest rates remain high. In the United Kingdom, the recession is thought to have continued into the first quarter of this year. But confidence has begun to recover again and will be helped by the cut in interest rates on 5 May. Inflationary pressures have continued to ease.

General assessment