Market-based estimates of expected future UK output growth

Quarterly Bulletin 2003 Q1
Published on 21 March 2003

By Ben Martin and Michael Sawicki of the Bank's Monetary Instruments and Markets Division. 

This article derives some simple market-based projections of future output growth from a Taylor monetary policy rule, yield curves and inflation surveys. The results can be used as a timely cross-check on output growth expectations from other sources. We find that over the recent past the projections have been plausible in magnitude against both recorded outturns and survey expectations.

PDFMarket-based estimates of expected future UK output growth

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