By Ben Martin and Michael Sawicki of the Bank's Monetary Instruments and Markets Division.
This article derives some simple market-based projections of future output growth from a Taylor monetary policy rule, yield curves and inflation surveys. The results can be used as a timely cross-check on output growth expectations from other sources. We find that over the recent past the projections have been plausible in magnitude against both recorded outturns and survey expectations.
Market-based estimates of expected future UK output growth