China’s changing growth pattern

Quarterly Bulletin 2011 Q1
Published on 21 March 2011

By Ed Dew and Jeremy Martin of the Bank’s International Economic Analysis Division, Julia Giese of the Bank’s Prudential Policy Division and Gabriele Zinna of the Bank’s International Finance Division.

China’s growth over the past 30 years has been remarkable. In part, that reflects a strategy pursued by many emerging market economies in the past with a focus on expanding exports. More recently, China’s current account surplus has shrunk, reflecting the collapse in world trade during the financial crisis, and the domestic stimulus China introduced in response. This article discusses China’s previous growth pattern and asks whether the nascent rebalancing will be sustained, considering implications for the rest of the world.

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