Nowcasting UK GDP growth

Quarterly Bulletin 2014 Q1
Published on 14 March 2014

By Venetia Bell, Lai Wah Co, Sophie Stone and Gavin Wallis of the Bank’s Conjunctural Assessment and Projections Division.

Official estimates of UK GDP growth are published with a lag, but other data and statistical models provide an early indication of GDP growth. This article describes the approaches taken by Bank staff to produce early estimates (‘nowcasts’) of GDP growth, ahead of the publication of official estimates. Although the confidence bands around the Bank staff’s nowcasts can be large, these estimates have tended to be more accurate than those from a simple statistical model.

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