By Shiv Chowla, Lucia Quaglietti and Łukasz Rachel of the Bank’s International Economic Analysis Division.
The UK economy is closely integrated into the wider global economy. These ties mean that global developments affect the economic fortunes of the United Kingdom. This article presents model-based estimates which suggest that world shocks have driven around two thirds of the weakness in UK output since 2007. Trade linkages are an important channel for the transmission of world shocks to the UK economy. But financial linkages and spillovers through uncertainty are significant, too — and together are likely to account for the majority of the impact of world shocks on the United Kingdom since 2007.