Systemic Risk Survey Results - 2017 H1

The Systemic Risk Survey is conducted on a biannual basis, to quantify and track market participants’ views of risks to, and their confidence in, the stability of the UK financial system.
Published on 27 June 2017

This report presents the results of the 2017 H1 survey, which was conducted between 3 April and 21 April prior to the UK general election.

Probability of a high-impact event and confidence in the UK financial system

  • The perceived probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system over the short term has fallen notably. In contrast the perceived probability of such an event over the medium term remains elevated. 24% (-19 percentage points since the 2016 H2 survey) of respondents now consider the probability of a high-impact event as high or very high over the next twelve months; 62% (unchanged) between one and three years ahead.
  • Confidence in the stability of the UK financial system over the next three years has increased. This was driven by a lower proportion of respondents judging themselves as not very confident (10%, -9 percentage points since the 2016 H2 survey). The proportion of respondents that judged themselves to be very confident or completely confident was unchanged (21%).

Sources of risk to the UK financial system

  • The risk to the UK financial system most cited by respondents was UK political risk (mentioned by 81% of respondents, -5 percentage points since 2016 H2). This was also the most frequently cited number one source of risk (52%, -3 percentage points).
  • Around 80% of all responses citing UK political risk explicitly referred to the implications of the referendum vote to leave the European Union.
  • There was a material increase in the proportion of respondents that cited geopolitical risk (61%, +25 percentage points). This was driven by a combination of European political developments, the risk of more protectionist economic policies and possible threats from global conflicts.
  • The proportion of respondents that cited cyber attack is now at its highest level since the survey began (51%, +17 percentage points).
  • A slightly larger proportion of respondents cited the risk of a UK economic downturn than in the previous survey (29%, +4 percentage points). A smaller proportion of respondents cited the risk of an overseas or global economic downturn (26%, -11 percentage points).

Risks most challenging to manage as a firm

  • UK political risk was most commonly cited as the risk most challenging to manage (62% of respondents, -2 percentage points since 2016 H2). There was a notable increase in the proportion of respondents citing cyber attack and geopolitical risk as the most challenging to manage (47%, +18 percentage points, and 47%, +27 percentage points, respectively).

PDF Survey results

PDF Questionnaire

Excel Data tables
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