Systemic Risk Survey Results - 2017 H2

The Systemic Risk Survey is conducted on a biannual basis, to quantify and track market participants’ views of risks to, and their confidence in, the stability of the UK financial system.
Published on 28 November 2017

This report presents the results of the 2017 H2 survey, which was conducted between 12 September and 29 September.

Probability of a high-impact event and confidence in the UK financial system

  • The perceived probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system over both the short term and medium term has
    fallen modestly.
  • Confidence in the stability of the UK financial system over the next three years has increased. The proportion of respondents judging themselves to be very confident or completely confident increased slightly (26%, +5 percentage points) since the 2017 H1 survey.

Sources of risk to the UK financial system

  • The risk to the UK financial system most cited by respondents was UK political risk (mentioned by 91% of respondents, +9 percentage points since 2017 H1). This was also, by a considerable margin, the most frequently cited number one source of risk (67%, +14 percentage points).
  • Around 90% of respondents that cited UK political risk explicitly referred to the implications of the referendum vote to leave the European Union.
  • Geopolitical risk (61%, unchanged) and cyber attack (57%, +6 percentage points) were the second and third most cited risks respectively. The proportion of respondents that cited cyber attack is at its highest level since the survey began in 2008.
  • There were modest increases in the proportion of respondents that cited the risk of a UK economic downturn (34%, +6 percentage points) and risks surrounding monetary or fiscal policy (27%, +9 percentage points). The proportion of respondents that cited risks around regulation and taxation was unchanged (29%).

Risks most challenging to manage as a firm

  • UK political risk was most commonly cited as the risk most challenging to manage (70% of respondents, +8 percentage points since 2017 H1). The proportion of respondents that cited cyber attack fell slightly (45%, -2 percentage points) but it remained the second most cited risk in this category.

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