This report presents the results of the 2018 H1 survey, which was conducted between 9 April and 3 May.
Probability of a high‑impact event and confidence in the UK financial system
- The perceived probability of a high‑impact event in the UK financial system over the short term has increased slightly relative to the 2017 H2 survey. The perceived probability of such an event over the medium term was broadly unchanged.
- Confidence in the stability of the UK financial system over the next three years has increased. The proportion of respondents judging themselves to be fairly confident, very confident or completely confident increased to 94% (+4 percentage points).
Sources of risk to the UK financial system
- UK political risk was the risk to the UK financial system most cited by respondents (mentioned by 91% of respondents, unchanged since 2017 H2). Around 80% of responses that cited UK political risk explicitly referred to the implications of Brexit. UK political risk also remains, by a considerable margin, the most frequently cited number one source of risk (mentioned by 53% of respondents), despite a smaller proportion of respondents citing it as such relative to the 2017 H2 survey (-14 percentage points).
- Geopolitical risk (62%, +1 percentage point) and cyber attack (62%, +5 percentage points) were, jointly, the second most cited risks. The proportion of respondents that cited cyber attack increased for the third consecutive survey to a new record high.
- A slightly larger proportion of respondents cited the risks surrounding monetary or fiscal policy than in the previous survey (32%, +5 percentage points).
- There was a modest decrease in the proportion of respondents that cited the risks around regulation or taxation (23%, - 6 percentage points).
Risks most challenging to manage as a firm
- UK political risk was cited as the risk most challenging to manage for the fifth consecutive survey. But a notably smaller proportion of respondents (52%, -18 percentage points) cited it as such relative to the 2017 H2 survey.
- There was an increase in the proportion of respondents that cited cyber attack as the risk most challenging to manage (51%, +5 percentage points).