Systemic Risk Survey Results - 2026 H1

The Systemic Risk Survey is conducted on a biannual basis, to quantify and track market participants’ views of risks to, and their confidence in, the stability of the UK financial system.
Published on 01 April 2026

Overview

The Bank of England’s financial stability objective is to protect and enhance the stability of the financial system of the United Kingdom. The Systemic Risk Survey contributes to this objective by quantifying and tracking, on a biannual basis, market participants’ views of risks to, and their confidence in, the stability of the UK financial system.footnote [1]

The survey is generally completed by executives responsible for firms’ risk management or treasury functions. The results presented are based on responses to the survey and do not necessarily reflect the Bank of England’s views on risks to the UK financial system. Participants include UK banks and building societies, large foreign banks, asset managers, hedge funds, insurers, pension funds, large non-financial companies and central counterparties. Summary statistics are calculated by giving equal weight to each survey response.

Additional background information on the survey is available in the 2009 Q3 Quarterly Bulletin article Bank of England Systemic Risk Survey.

This report presents the results of the 2026 H1 survey, which was conducted between 19 January and 16 February 2026.

57 firms participated in the 2026 H1 survey, representing a 66% response rate.

Key results from 2026 H1 survey

  • Survey respondents remain confident in the stability of the UK financial system, reporting a similar level of confidence compared to the 2025 H2 survey.
  • The perceived probability of a high-impact event affecting the UK financial system over the short term is at a similar level compared to the previous survey, but lower over the medium term.
  • Geopolitical risk and cyberattack remain the two most frequently cited sources of risks among participants. They are also considered the most challenging risks to manage, as well as the most likely risks to materialise.
  • Geopolitical risk has reached its highest levels recorded in the survey in all three of the categories: Source of risk to the UK financial system, most challenging risks to manage, and most likely risk to materialise. Despite remaining a key concern, perceptions of cyber risk have been broadly stable across survey measures relative to recent rounds.
  • The number of participants citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence has continued its upward trend since the 2023 H1 survey. There has also been a noticeable increase in participants citing the risk as the most challenging to manage, as well as the most likely to materialise.
  • The proportion of respondents citing inflation risk has continued to decrease since its 2022 H2 peak.

Confidence in the UK financial system

Respondents were asked about the level of confidence they have in the stability of the UK financial system over the next three years.

Chart 1 represents the results in one weighted measure, while the figures below and in Table A1 refer to simple percentages.

Survey respondents remain confident in the stability of the UK financial system, reporting a similar level of confidence compared to the 2025 H2 survey.

  • 93% of respondents judge themselves as being very confident (39%, +1 percentage point since the 2025 H2 survey), or fairly confident (54%, -3 percentage points).
  • 7% of respondents judge themselves as being not very confident (+2 percentage points).
  • No respondents report being completely confident, or having no confidence (unchanged since the 2025 H2 survey).

Chart 1: Confidence in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years (a)

This is a stacked column chart showing a weighted measure of respondents' confidence in the stability of the UK’s financial system over the next three years. The series shown is between 2008–26. The stacked columns are overlaid with a line indicating high confidence with a net percentage balance of 15.8%. Series high: 22.4% in 2021 H2. Series low: -9% in 2009 H2.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked how much confidence they had in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years. The net percentage balance is calculated by weighting responses as follows: complete confidence (1), very confident (0.5), fairly confident (0), not very confident (-0.5) and no confidence (-1). Bars show the contribution of each component to the net percentage balance.

Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system

Respondents were asked for their view on the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short and medium term.footnote [2]

Charts 2 and 3 represent results in one weighted measure, while the figures below and in Table A1 refer to simple percentages.

Respondents judge that the likelihood of a high-impact event over the short term is at a similar level compared to the previous survey, but lower over the medium term.

Over the short term (0–12 months):

  • No respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be very high (unchanged since the 2025 H2 survey).
  • 23% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be high (+4 percentage points).
  • 47% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be medium (-3 percentage points).
  • 30% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be low (26%, -2 percentage points) or very low (4%, +2 percentage points).

Chart 2: Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system over the short term (a) (b)

This is a stacked column chart showing a weighted measure of respondents’ perceptions of the probability of a high-impact event occurring in 0–12 months. The series shown is between 2008–26. The stacked columns are overlaid with a line, showing a measure of overall perception of the probability of such an event. Respondents feel that the probability of a high-impact event occurring in the short term is at a similar level compared to the 2025 H2 survey, with a net percentage balance of -5.3% in this survey. Series high: 41.1% in 2019 H2. Series low: -36.1% in 2014 H1.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked what is the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short term. And also, how they thought this probability had changed over the past six months. From the 2009 H2 survey onwards, short term was defined as 0–12 months.
  • (b) Bars show the contribution of each component to the net percentage balance. The net percentage balance in this chart is calculated by weighting responses as follows: very high (1), high (0.5), medium (0), low (-0.5) and very low (-1).

Over the medium term (1–3 years):

  • 2% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be very high (-2 percentage points).
  • 42% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be high (unchanged since the 2025 H2 survey).
  • 46% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be medium (-2 percentage points).
  • No respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be very low (unchanged since the 2025 H2 survey), and 11% consider the likelihood to be low (+4 percentage points).

Chart 3: Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system over the medium term (a) (b)

This is a stacked column chart showing a weighted measure of respondents' perceptions of the probability of a high-impact event occurring in 1–3 years. The series shown is between 2008–26. The columns are overlaid with a line, showing a measure of overall perception of the probability of such an event. Respondents feel that the probability of a high-impact event occurring in the medium term has decreased over the past six months, with a net percentage balance of 17.5%. Series high: 43.8% in 2022 H2. Series low: -7.6% in 2014 H1.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked what is the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the medium term, and how they thought this probability had changed over the past six months. From the 2009 H2 survey onwards, medium term was defined as 1–3 years.
  • (b) See footnote (b) of Chart 2.

Sources of risk to the UK financial system

Respondents were asked to list the five risks they thought would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise. To give an overview of the results, answers, which were provided in free-text format, have been grouped into the 26 categories shown in Table A2.footnote [3] Below is a list of the risks that were most frequently cited by the respondents in the 2026 H1 survey as one of their top five risks (Chart 4):

1. Geopolitical risk (cited by 95% of respondents, +10 percentage points since the 2025 H2 survey).

2. Cyberattack (82%, -2 percentage points).

3= Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (47%, -9 percentage points).

3= Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation (47%, unchanged since the 2025 H2 survey).

4. Operational risk (35%, -1 percentage points).

5. Risks surrounding artificial intelligence (32%, +11 percentage points).

The risks most commonly cited by market participants as their ‘number one’ source of risk to the UK financial system (Chart 5) were:

1. Geopolitical risk (46%, +10 percentage points).

2. Cyberattack (26%, +6 percentage points).

3. Operational risk (9%, +4 percentage points).

4. Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn (5%, unchanged since the 2025 H2 survey).

Geopolitical risk and cyberattack remain the two most frequently cited sources of risks that would have the greatest impact on UK the financial system should they materialise, with the proportion of participants citing geopolitical risk, as well as placing it as their ‘number one’ risk, significantly increasing to its highest levels recorded in the survey.

There has also been a noticeable increase in the number of participants citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence and UK political risk.

  • The two most frequently cited risks – geopolitical risk (95%) and cyberattack (82%) – remain the most frequently cited since the return of the survey in 2021 H2 after the pause due to covid.
  • Geopolitical risk also remains, by a considerable margin, the most frequently cited ‘number one’ source of risk (mentioned by 46% of respondents).
  • Despite the decrease in the number of respondents citing risks associated with a UK economic downturn, it remains the third most cited risk, alongside risks of financial market disruption/dislocation.
  • The number of respondents citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence has continued to increase since the 2023 H2 survey, with a notable rise in 2026 H1. Participants raised a range of concerns, notably around stretched AI equity valuations, as well as disruption to the job market leading to high unemployment.
  • Beyond the top five risks, there has been a sharp increase in the number of respondents citing UK political risks (16%, +12 percentage points since the 2025 H2 survey).
  • The proportion of respondents citing inflation risk has continued its downward trend since its 2022 H2 peak.

Chart 4: Perceived key sources of risk to the UK financial system (a) (b)

This is a line chart showing the proportion of respondents to the survey that cited each risk between 2008–26. Geopolitical risk was cited by 95% of respondents in 2026 H1.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked to list the five risks they thought would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise. Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk at least once, among respondents citing at least one key risk. The chart shows the top five categories; see the data appendix for additional categories.
  • (b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.

Chart 5: ‘Number one’ sources of risk to the UK financial system (a) (b)

This is a line chart showing the proportion of respondents to the survey that cited each risk as the most impactful if it were to materialise, between 2008–26. The top two risks considered most impactful in 2026 H1 are geopolitical risk (cited by 46% of respondents) and cyberattack (26%).

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked to list the five risks they thought would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, in order of potential impact (ie greatest impact first). Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk as their number one key risk, among respondents citing at least one key risk. The chart shows the top four ‘number one’ sources of risk that have been cited in the most recent survey; see the data appendix for more detail.
  • (b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.

Most challenging risks to manage as a firm

Respondents were asked to rank which of the five risks they identified would be the most challenging to manage, should they materialise.

The most cited risks are shown below (Chart 6):

1. Geopolitical risk (cited by 81% of respondents, +13 percentage points since the 2025 H2 survey).

2. Cyberattack (77%, +4 percentage point).

3. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (23%, -4 percentage points).

4. Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn (19%, +6 percentage points).

5. Operational risk (18%, -3 percentage points).

6=. Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation (11%, -5 percentage points).

6=. Risks surrounding artificial intelligence (11%, +4 percentage points).

6=. UK political risk (11%, +7 percentage points).

Chart 6: Risks most challenging to manage as a firm (a) (b)

This is a line chart showing the proportion of respondents citing each risk as the most challenging to manage for their firms, between 2008–26. Geopolitical risk (mentioned by 81% of respondents) was considered the most challenging to manage, followed by cyberattack (77%).

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) After respondents had listed the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were asked to rank which of these risks they would find most challenging to manage as a firm. The data is based on participants top three ranked risks. Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk at least once, among respondents citing at least one key risk. The chart shows the top six categories only; see the data appendix for additional categories.
  • (b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.

Geopolitical risk and Cyberattack are still considered to be most challenging risks to manage.

  • Geopolitical risk (81%) and cyberattack (77%) are still considered the most challenging to manage by respondents, with both risks increasing to their highest level recorded in the survey.
  • Although risks associated with a UK economic downturn and operational risk remain in the top five most challenging risks to manage, they have continued a downward trend since the 2025 H1 survey (-12 percentage points and -8 percentage points respectively).
  • The proportion of respondents citing UK political risk as the most challenging risk to manage has increased, by 7 percentage points.

Key risks most likely to materialise

Respondents were asked to rank which of the five risks they thought would be the most probable to materialise.footnote [4]

The most cited risks are shown below (Chart 7):

1. Geopolitical risk (84% of respondents, +13 percentage points since the 2025 H2 survey).

2. Cyberattack (56%, unchanged since the 2025 H2 survey).

3. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (35%, -6 percentage points).

4. Operational risk (23%, +4 percentage points).

Chart 7: Risks most likely to materialise – as mentioned by respondents (a) (b) (c)

This is a treemap chart showing the proportion of respondents to the survey citing each risk as most probable to materialise. Geopolitical risk (cited by 84% of respondents), cyberattack (56%), and risks associated with a UK economic downturn (35%) are considered most likely to occur by respondents in this survey.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) After listing the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, respondents were then asked to rank which of these risks they perceived as most likely to materialise. The data is based on participants top three ranked risks. Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk at least once, among respondents citing at least one key risk.
  • (b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.
  • (c) The risks presented in this chart include only those cited as most likely to materialise by at least 5% of respondents. Please refer to Table A4 in the data appendix for details.
  • Geopolitical risk continues to be the most likely risk to materialise according to respondents, rising sharply since the 2025 H2 survey to reach its highest level recorded in the survey.
  • Cyberattack remains the second most likely risk to materialise.
  • The number of participants citing risks associated with a UK economic downturn has continued to decrease since the 2025 H1 survey (-14 percentage points), however it still remains the third most cited risk.
  • The number of participants citing risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn has dropped down to fifth place with an 8 percentage point decrease since 2025 H2.
  • The number of participants citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence and UK political risks has grown (+9 and +7 percentage points respectively).

Data appendix

  • Aggregate risks to the UK financial system (a) (b) (c)

    2022 H2

    2023 H1

    2023 H2

    2024 H1

    2024 H2

    2025 H1

    2025 H2

    2026 H1

    Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short term (d)

    Very high

    14

    6

    2

    0

    0

    2

    0

    0

    High

    48

    46

    36

    24

    17

    22

    19

    23

    Medium

    35

    33

    32

    50

    46

    42

    51

    47

    Low

    3

    14

    27

    23

    35

    31

    29

    26

    Very low

    0

    1

    4

    3

    2

    4

    2

    4

    Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the medium term (d)

    Very high

    17

    11

    7

    8

    0

    5

    3

    2

    High

    55

    56

    50

    38

    43

    31

    42

    42

    Medium

    26

    28

    34

    39

    43

    53

    47

    46

    Low

    2

    6

    9

    15

    13

    11

    7

    11

    Very low

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    0

    0

    Change in the probability over the past six months of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short term (e)

    Increased

    83

    51

    23

    35

    26

    36

    39

    44

    Unchanged

    15

    35

    59

    52

    57

    56

    59

    51

    Decreased

    2

    14

    18

    14

    17

    7

    2

    5

    Change in the probability over the past six months of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the medium term (e)

    Increased

    69

    42

    27

    32

    24

    49

    46

    38

    Unchanged

    29

    51

    70

    65

    67

    47

    54

    59

    Decreased

    2

    7

    4

    3

    9

    4

    0

    4

    Confidence in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years (f)

    Complete confidence

    0

    1

    2

    0

    2

    0

    0

    0

    Very confident

    42

    24

    29

    29

    38

    35

    37

    39

    Fairly confident

    55

    69

    63

    65

    56

    53

    58

    54

    Not very confident

    3

    6

    7

    6

    4

    13

    5

    7

    No confidence

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Change in confidence over the past six months (g)

    Increased

    0

    7

    7

    5

    16

    9

    5

    4

    Unchanged

    71

    50

    80

    80

    73

    64

    83

    82

    Decreased

    29

    43

    13

    15

    11

    27

    12

    14

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
    • (a) Entries are percentages of respondents and may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
    • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. Between 2020 H1 and 2021 H1, the survey was paused due to Covid.
    • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
    • (d) Respondents were asked what the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system was in their view, for both the short and medium term. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.
    • (e) Respondents were asked how the probability had changed over the past six months for the short and medium term. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.
    • (f) Respondents were asked how much confidence they had in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years.
    • (g) Respondents were asked how their confidence had changed over the past six months. The question was asked from 2010 H1 onwards.
  • Sources of risk to the UK financial system (a) (b) (c) (d)

    2022 H2

    2023 H1

    2023 H2

    2024 H1

    2024 H2

    2025 H1

    2025 H2

    2026 H1

    Geopolitical risk

    72

    79

    66

    85

    93

    87

    85

    95

    Cyberattack

    74

    75

    80

    70

    80

    73

    85

    82

    Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

    20

    32

    52

    44

    45

    62

    56

    47

    Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

    17

    13

    23

    14

    22

    33

    47

    47

    Operational risk

    20

    21

    20

    12

    22

    33

    36

    35

    Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

    0

    0

    7

    14

    15

    16

    20

    32

    Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

    20

    22

    23

    14

    33

    20

    36

    30

    Climate risk

    23

    39

    39

    36

    29

    15

    17

    21

    Risk of infrastructure disruption

    0

    1

    7

    12

    15

    9

    8

    16

    UK political risk

    34

    28

    16

    21

    7

    5

    3

    16

    Household/corporate credit risk

    8

    10

    7

    20

    24

    20

    14

    12

    Sovereign risk

    2

    4

    2

    3

    7

    9

    14

    12

    Risks around regulation/taxes

    6

    17

    11

    15

    13

    16

    14

    11

    Funding risk

    2

    7

    9

    8

    4

    13

    10

    7

    Other

    23

    19

    14

    11

    22

    5

    8

    5

    Risk of tightening in credit conditions

    17

    8

    5

    3

    2

    0

    0

    4

    Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy

    5

    7

    9

    6

    2

    7

    3

    4

    Inflation risk

    72

    53

    57

    41

    24

    16

    7

    2

    Risk of financial institution failure/distress

    6

    6

    14

    17

    5

    5

    5

    2

    Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

    0

    3

    2

    2

    4

    7

    7

    2

    Risk of property price falls

    3

    10

    13

    11

    7

    2

    3

    2

    Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

    5

    1

    0

    3

    4

    4

    2

    2

    Pandemic risk

    31

    8

    5

    3

    0

    2

    0

    0

    Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

    0

    3

    0

    3

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk surrounding cryptocurrencies

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    4

    2

    0

    Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (e)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    0

    Number one source of risk to the UK financial system (f)

    Geopolitical risk

    17

    28

    23

    41

    42

    42

    36

    46

    Cyberattack

    17

    10

    27

    21

    31

    18

    20

    26

    Operational risk

    0

    1

    0

    5

    5

    11

    5

    9

    Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

    3

    4

    0

    2

    5

    4

    5

    5

    Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

    8

    14

    16

    12

    5

    9

    8

    4

    Household/corporate credit risk

    2

    3

    0

    5

    2

    0

    0

    2

    Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

    3

    0

    5

    2

    2

    4

    0

    2

    Risks around regulation/taxes

    3

    1

    0

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

    0

    0

    2

    2

    0

    0

    3

    2

    Sovereign risk

    0

    1

    2

    0

    0

    2

    7

    2

    UK political risk

    2

    1

    0

    3

    0

    2

    2

    2

    Climate risk

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    Funding risk

    0

    0

    2

    0

    0

    4

    5

    0

    Inflation risk

    38

    25

    14

    5

    4

    0

    2

    0

    Other

    0

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Pandemic risk

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of financial institution failure/distress

    0

    0

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    0

    Risk of infrastructure disruption

    0

    1

    2

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

    0

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of property price falls

    0

    3

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of tightening in credit conditions

    2

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk surrounding cryptocurrencies

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (e)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

    0

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy

    3

    1

    4

    0

    0

    2

    2

    0

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
    • (a) Respondents were asked which five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, in order of potential impact (ie greatest impact first). Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.
    • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. Between 2020 H1 and 2021 H1, the survey was paused due to Covid.
    • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
    • (d) Percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in their top five, among those citing at least one risk.
    • (e) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.
    • (f) Percentages of respondents citing each risk as their number one risk (ie the risk with the greatest potential impact), among those citing at least one source of risk.
  • Risks most challenging to manage as a firm (a) (b) (c)

    2022 H2

    2023 H1

    2023 H2

    2024 H1

    2024 H2

    2025 H1

    2025 H2

    2026 H1

    Geopolitical risk

    48

    49

    46

    70

    71

    67

    68

    81

    Cyberattack

    56

    50

    70

    59

    71

    62

    73

    77

    Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

    13

    24

    29

    18

    16

    35

    27

    23

    Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

    6

    11

    18

    10

    22

    11

    14

    19

    Operational risk

    11

    11

    11

    8

    16

    25

    20

    18

    Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

    11

    3

    5

    3

    11

    11

    15

    11

    Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

    0

    0

    2

    10

    5

    9

    7

    11

    UK political risk

    14

    11

    7

    7

    4

    4

    3

    11

    Risk of infrastructure disruption

    0

    1

    7

    10

    9

    4

    7

    9

    Risks around regulation/taxes

    5

    11

    4

    7

    7

    13

    10

    7

    Climate risk

    13

    15

    20

    16

    15

    5

    8

    5

    Funding risk

    2

    6

    9

    2

    2

    7

    3

    5

    Other

    6

    13

    5

    7

    11

    2

    7

    5

    Household/corporate credit risk

    5

    7

    2

    16

    7

    4

    8

    4

    Sovereign risk

    0

    3

    2

    2

    4

    4

    8

    4

    Risk of financial institution failure/distress

    5

    0

    9

    8

    4

    5

    5

    2

    Inflation risk

    61

    40

    41

    16

    9

    11

    3

    2

    Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

    3

    0

    0

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

    0

    3

    0

    2

    2

    0

    3

    2

    Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy

    3

    3

    4

    3

    0

    4

    0

    2

    Pandemic risk

    9

    4

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    0

    Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of property price falls

    0

    6

    4

    8

    2

    2

    0

    0

    Risk of tightening in credit conditions

    11

    3

    4

    2

    2

    0

    0

    0

    Risk surrounding cryptocurrencies

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    0

    Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (d)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Cited at least one key risk, but did not cite any risk as challenging to manage (%)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Number of respondents citing at least one source of risk

    65

    72

    56

    66

    55

    55

    59

    57

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
    • (a) After respondents had listed the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were asked to rank which of these risks they would find most challenging to manage as a firm. The data is based on participants top three ranked risks. Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data. Table entries are the percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in this second question, among those citing at least one source of risk.
    • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. Between 2020 H1 and 2021 H1, the survey was paused due to Covid.
    • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
    • (d) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.
  • Risks most probable to materialise (a) (b) (c)

    2024 H1

    2024 H2

    2025 H1

    2025 H2

    2026 H1

    Geopolitical risk

    67

    75

    80

    71

    84

    Cyberattack

    40

    60

    44

    56

    56

    Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

    37

    29

    49

    41

    35

    Operational risk

    10

    13

    18

    19

    23

    Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

    10

    22

    9

    25

    18

    Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

    8

    15

    16

    20

    14

    Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

    12

    5

    2

    5

    14

    UK political risk

    17

    4

    4

    3

    11

    Risk of infrastructure disruption

    7

    4

    5

    5

    9

    Risk around regulation/taxes

    10

    5

    11

    8

    9

    Climate risk

    15

    15

    4

    5

    9

    Household/corporate credit risk

    12

    15

    13

    8

    7

    Sovereign risk

    2

    2

    2

    3

    4

    Risks surrounding monetary/fiscal policy

    3

    0

    2

    3

    4

    Inflation risk

    20

    15

    13

    3

    2

    Other

    3

    9

    2

    5

    2

    Risk of financial institution failure/distress

    7

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Funding risk

    3

    0

    4

    2

    0

    Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

    0

    0

    2

    0

    0

    Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

    0

    2

    4

    5

    0

    Risk of property price falls

    5

    4

    2

    2

    0

    Risk of tightening in credit conditions

    2

    2

    0

    0

    0

    Risks surrounding low interest rate environment (d)

    0

    0

    2

    0

    0

    Pandemic risk

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risks surrounding cryptocurrencies

    0

    0

    4

    0

    0

    Cited at least one key risk, but did not cite any risk as most likely to materialise (%)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Number of respondents citing at least one source of risk

    66

    55

    55

    59

    57

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
    • (a) After listing the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, respondents were then asked to rank which of these risks they perceived as most likely to materialise. The data is based on participants top three ranked risks. This element of the survey was introduced in 2021 H2. Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data. Table entries are the percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in this second question, among those citing at least one source of risk.
    • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. Between 2020 H1 and 2021 H1, the survey was paused due to Covid.
    • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
    • (d) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.
  1. The Systemic Risk Survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. It was published for the first time in November 2011. The survey results complement other sources of information used by the Bank to identify system-wide risks.

  2. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.

  3. These summary categories are adjusted over time in order to better capture current risks cited. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the new categories to ensure comparability across survey rounds.

  4. This question was introduced in the 2021 H2 survey.