Systemic Risk Survey Results - 2026 H2

The Systemic Risk Survey is conducted on a biannual basis, to quantify and track market participants’ views of risks to, and their confidence in, the stability of the UK financial system.
Published on 30 September 2026

Overview

The Bank of England’s financial stability objective is to protect and enhance the stability of the financial system of the United Kingdom. The Systemic Risk Survey contributes to this objective by quantifying and tracking, on a biannual basis, market participants’ views of risks to, and their confidence in, the stability of the UK financial system.footnote [1]

The survey is generally completed by executives responsible for firms’ risk management or treasury functions. The results presented are based on responses to the survey and do not necessarily reflect the Bank of England’s views on risks to the UK financial system. Participants include UK banks and building societies, large foreign banks, asset managers, hedge funds, insurers, pension funds, large non-financial companies and central counterparties. Summary statistics are calculated by giving equal weight to each survey response.

Additional background information on the survey is available in the 2009 Q3 Quarterly Bulletin article Bank of England Systemic Risk Survey.

This report presents the results of the 2026 H2 survey, which was conducted between 27 July and 24 August 2026.

57 firms participated in the 2026 H2 survey, representing a 66% response rate.

Key results from 2026 H2 survey

  • Survey respondents remain confident in the stability of the UK financial system, reporting a similar level of confidence compared to the 2026 H1 survey.
  • The perceived probability of a high-impact event affecting the UK financial system over the short and medium term is higher compared to the previous survey.
  • Geopolitical risk and cyberattack remain the two most frequently cited sources of risk among participants. They are also considered the most challenging risks to manage, as well as the most likely risks to materialise.
  • The number of participants citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence has increased substantially, reaching its highest level recorded in the survey across all three categories: source of risk to the UK financial system, most challenging risk to manage, and most likely risk to materialise. Combined with a sustained upward trend over recent surveys, this suggests AI-related risks are becoming a mainstream concern for market participants.
  • The proportion of respondents citing UK political risk has decreased compared to the 2026 H1 survey, while the proportion citing inflation risk has increased.

Confidence in the UK financial system

Respondents were asked about the level of confidence they have in the stability of the UK financial system over the next three years.

Chart 1 represents the results in one weighted measure, while the figures below and in Table A1 refer to simple percentages.

Survey respondents remain confident in the stability of the UK financial system, reporting a similar level of confidence compared to the 2026 H1 survey.

  • 95% of respondents judge themselves as being very confident (39%, unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey), or fairly confident (56%, +2 percentage points).
  • 5% of respondents judge themselves as being not very confident (-2 percentage points).
  • No respondents report being completely confident, or having no confidence (unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).

Chart 1: Confidence in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years (a)

This is a stacked column chart showing a weighted measure of respondents’ confidence in the stability of the UK’s financial system over the next three years. The series shown is between 2008–26. The stacked columns are overlaid with a line indicating high confidence with a net percentage balance of 16.7%. Series high: 22.4% in 2021 H2. Series low: -9% in 2009 H2.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked how much confidence they had in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years. The net percentage balance is calculated by weighting responses as follows: complete confidence (1), very confident (0.5), fairly confident (0), not very confident (-0.5) and no confidence (-1). Bars show the contribution of each component to the net percentage balance.

Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system

Respondents were asked for their view on the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short and medium term.footnote [2]

Charts 2 and 3 represent results in one weighted measure, while the figures below and in Table A1 refer to simple percentages.

Respondents judge that the likelihood of a high-impact event is higher than judged in the previous survey over both the short and medium term.

Over the short term (0–12 months):

  • No respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be very high (unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).
  • 28% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be high (+5 percentage points).
  • 47% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be medium (unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).
  • 25% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be low (23%, -4 percentage points) or very low (2%, -2 percentage points).

Chart 2: Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system over the short term (a) (b)

This is a stacked column chart showing a weighted measure of respondents’ perceptions of the probability of a high-impact event occurring in 0–12 months. The series shown is between 2008–26. The stacked columns are overlaid with a line, showing a measure of overall perception of the probability of such an event. Respondents feel that the probability of a high-impact event occurring in the short term is higher compared to the 2026 H1 survey, with a net percentage balance of 0.9% in this survey. Series high: 41.1% in 2019 H2. Series low: -36.1% in 2014 H1.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked what the probability is of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short term, as well as how they thought this probability had changed over the past six months. From the 2009 H2 survey onwards, short term was defined as 0–12 months.
  • (b) Bars show the contribution of each component to the net percentage balance. The net percentage balance in this chart is calculated by weighting responses as follows: very high (1), high (0.5), medium (0), low (-0.5) and very low (-1).

Over the medium term (1–3 years):

  • 7% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be very high (+5 percentage points).
  • 40% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be high (-2 percentage points).
  • 46% of respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be medium (unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).
  • No respondents consider the likelihood of a high-impact event to be very low (unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey), and 7% consider the likelihood to be low (-4 percentage points).

Chart 3: Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system over the medium term (a) (b)

This is a stacked column chart showing a weighted measure of respondents’ perceptions of the probability of a high-impact event occurring in 1–3 years. The series shown is between 2008–26. The columns are overlaid with a line, showing a measure of overall perception of the probability of such an event. Respondents feel that the probability of a high-impact event occurring in the medium term has increased over the past six months, with a net percentage balance of 23.7%. Series high: 43.8% in 2022 H2. Series low: -7.6% in 2014 H1.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked what the probability is of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the medium term, as well as how they thought this probability had changed over the past six months. From the 2009 H2 survey onwards, medium term was defined as 1–3 years.
  • (b) Refer to footnote (b) of Chart 2.

Sources of risk to the UK financial system

Respondents were asked to list the five risks they thought would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise. To give an overview of the results, answers, which were provided in free-text format, have been grouped into the 26 categories shown in Table A2.footnote [3] The risks most frequently cited by respondents in the 2026 H2 survey as one of their top five risks are shown in Chart 4 below:

1. Geopolitical risk (cited by 91% of respondents, -4 percentage points since the 2026 H1 survey).

2. Cyberattack (75%, -7 percentage points).

3. Risks surrounding artificial intelligence (63%, +32 percentage points).

4. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (51%, +4 percentage points).

5. Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation (32%, -16 percentage points).

The risks most commonly cited by market participants as their ‘number one’ source of risk to the UK financial system (Chart 5) were:

1. Geopolitical risk (47%, +2 percentage points).

2. Cyberattack (26%, unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).

3. Operational risk (7%, -2 percentage points).

4. Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn (5%, unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).

5= Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (4%, unchanged since the 2026 H1 survey).

5= Risks surrounding artificial intelligence (4%, +2 percentage points).

Geopolitical risk and cyberattack remain the two most frequently cited sources of risk with the greatest potential impact on UK the financial system, should they materialise.

The number of participants citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence has risen markedly over successive surveys.

  • The number of respondents citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence has risen sharply (+32 percentage points) since the 2026 H1 survey. This represents one of the largest movements in recent survey rounds and moves AI-related risks from a relatively lower ranked concern to the third most cited risk amongst participants. Participants highlighted a range of concerns, notably the rapid pace of technological developments, alongside lack of controls and governance.
  • Despite the steep increase in the number of respondents citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence, there has been only a small rise in the number of participants placing it as their ‘number one’ source of risk.
  • Geopolitical risk (91%) and cyberattack (75%) continue to remain the most frequently cited risks.
  • Geopolitical risk also remains, by a considerable margin, the most frequently cited ‘number one’ source of risk (mentioned by 47% of respondents).
  • Respondents citing risk of financial market disruption/dislocation and operational risk have both fallen by 16 percentage points since the 2026 H1 survey.
  • Beyond the top five risks, the number of participants citing UK political risk decreased (7%, -9 percentage points), while the number of participants citing inflation risk increased (9%, +7 percentage points).

Chart 4: Perceived key sources of risk to the UK financial system (a) (b)

This is a line chart showing the proportion of respondents to the survey that cited each risk between 2008–26. Geopolitical risk was cited by 91% of respondents in 2026 H2.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked to list the five risks they thought would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise. Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk at least once, among respondents citing at least one key risk. The chart shows the top five categories; refer to the data appendix for additional categories.
  • (b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.

Chart 5: ‘Number one’ sources of risk to the UK financial system (a) (b)

This is a line chart showing the proportion of respondents to the survey that cited each risk as the most impactful if it were to materialise, between 2008–26. The top two risks considered most impactful in 2026 H2 are geopolitical risk (cited by 47% of respondents) and cyberattack (26%).

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) Respondents were asked to list the five risks they thought would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, in order of potential impact (ie greatest impact first). Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk as their number one key risk, among respondents citing at least one key risk. The chart shows the top five ‘number one’ sources of risk that have been cited in the most recent survey; refer to the data appendix for more detail.
  • (b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.

Most challenging risks to manage as a firm

Respondents were asked to rank which of the five risks they identified would be the most challenging to manage, should they materialise.

The most cited risks are shown below (Chart 6):

1. Geopolitical risk (cited by 68% of respondents, -12 percentage points since the 2026 H1 survey).

2. Cyberattack (67%, -11 percentage point).

3. Risks surrounding artificial intelligence (37%, +26 percentage points).

4. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (28%, +5 percentage points).

5. Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn (14%, -5 percentage points).

Chart 6: Risks most challenging to manage as a firm (a) (b)

This is a line chart showing the proportion of respondents citing each risk as the most challenging to manage for their firms, between 2008–26. Geopolitical risk (mentioned by 68% of respondents) was considered the most challenging to manage, followed by cyberattack (67%).

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) After respondents had listed the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were asked to rank which of these risks they would find most challenging to manage as a firm. The data is based on participants’ top three ranked risks. Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk at least once, among respondents citing at least one key risk. The chart shows the top five categories only; see the data appendix for additional categories.
  • (b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.

Geopolitical risk and cyberattack are still considered to be the most challenging risks to manage.

The share of survey respondents citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence has increased sharply, to its highest levels recorded in the survey.

  • Although there has been a noticeable decrease in the number of respondents citing geopolitical risk (68%, -12 percentage points) and cyberattack (67%, -11 percentage points), they are still considered the most challenging risks to manage.
  • There has been a steep increase in the number of respondents citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence (37%, +26 percentage points), now making it the third most challenging risk to manage.
  • The proportion of respondents citing operational risk has continued to fall from its peak in the 2025 H1 survey, now dropping out of the top five most cited risks.
  • The proportion of participants citing UK political risk has decreased (4%, -7 percentage points).

Key risks most likely to materialise

After respondents listed the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were then asked to rank which of these risks they thought would be the most probable to materialise.footnote [4]

The most cited risks are shown below (Chart 7):

1. Geopolitical risk (cited by 88% of respondents, +4 percentage points since the 2026 H1 survey).

2. Cyberattack (51%, -5 percentage points).

3. Risks associated with a UK economic downturn (37%, +2 percentage points).

4. Risks surrounding artificial intelligence (32%, +18 percentage points).

5. Operational risk (16%, -7 percentage points).

Chart 7: Risks most likely to materialise – as mentioned by respondents (a) (b) (c)

This is a treemap chart showing the proportion of respondents to the survey citing each risk as most probable to materialise. Geopolitical risk (cited by 88% of respondents), cyberattack (51%), and risks associated with a UK economic downturn (37%) are considered most likely to occur by respondents in this survey.

Footnotes

  • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
  • (a) After listing the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, respondents were then asked to rank which of these risks they perceived as most likely to materialise. The data is based on participants top three ranked risks. Answers were in a free-text format and were grouped into categories after the questionnaires had been submitted; only one category was selected for each answer. Chart figures are the percentages of respondents citing a given risk at least once, among respondents citing at least one key risk.
  • (b) Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.
  • (c) The risks presented in this chart include only those cited as most likely to materialise by at least 5% of respondents. Please refer to Table A4 in the data appendix for details.
  • Geopolitical risk remains the most likely risk to materialise according to respondents, continuing to rise since the 2025 H2 survey to reach its highest level recorded in the survey.
  • Cyberattack and risks associated with a UK economic downturn remain the second and third most likely risks to materialise, respectively.
  • The number of participants citing risks surrounding artificial intelligence has risen sharply since the 2026 H1 survey (+18 percentage points). It has continued its upward trend since the 2025 H1 survey and is now at its highest level recorded in the survey.
  • The proportion of respondents citing UK political risk as the most likely risk to materialise has decreased by 9 percentage points.

Data appendix

  • Aggregate risks to the UK financial system (a) (b) (c)

    2023 H1

    2023 H2

    2024 H1

    2024 H2

    2025 H1

    2025 H2

    2026 H1

    2026 H2

    Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short term (d)

    Very high

    6

    2

    0

    0

    2

    0

    0

    0

    High

    46

    36

    24

    17

    22

    19

    23

    28

    Medium

    33

    32

    50

    46

    42

    51

    47

    47

    Low

    14

    27

    23

    35

    31

    29

    26

    23

    Very low

    1

    4

    3

    2

    4

    2

    4

    2

    Probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the medium term (d)

    Very high

    11

    7

    8

    0

    5

    3

    2

    7

    High

    56

    50

    38

    43

    31

    42

    42

    40

    Medium

    28

    34

    39

    43

    53

    47

    46

    46

    Low

    6

    9

    15

    13

    11

    7

    11

    7

    Very low

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Change in the probability over the past six months of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the short term (e)

    Increased

    51

    23

    35

    26

    36

    39

    44

    25

    Unchanged

    35

    59

    52

    57

    56

    59

    51

    72

    Decreased

    14

    18

    14

    17

    7

    2

    5

    4

    Change in the probability over the past six months of a high-impact event in the UK financial system in the medium term (e)

    Increased

    42

    27

    32

    24

    49

    46

    38

    35

    Unchanged

    51

    70

    65

    67

    47

    54

    59

    61

    Decreased

    7

    4

    3

    9

    4

    0

    4

    4

    Confidence in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years (f)

    Complete confidence

    1

    2

    0

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Very confident

    24

    29

    29

    38

    35

    37

    39

    39

    Fairly confident

    69

    63

    65

    56

    53

    58

    54

    56

    Not very confident

    6

    7

    6

    4

    13

    5

    7

    5

    No confidence

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Change in confidence over the past six months (g)

    Increased

    7

    7

    5

    16

    9

    5

    4

    4

    Unchanged

    50

    80

    80

    73

    64

    83

    82

    81

    Decreased

    43

    13

    15

    11

    27

    12

    14

    16

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
    • (a) Entries are percentages of respondents and may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
    • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. Between 2020 H1 and 2021 H1, the survey was paused due to Covid.
    • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
    • (d) Respondents were asked what the probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system was in their view, for both the short and medium term. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.
    • (e) Respondents were asked how the probability had changed over the past six months for the short and medium term. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.
    • (f) Respondents were asked how much confidence they had in the stability of the UK financial system as a whole over the next three years.
    • (g) Respondents were asked how their confidence had changed over the past six months. The question was asked from 2010 H1 onwards.
  • Sources of risk to the UK financial system (a) (b) (c) (d)

    2023 H1

    2023 H2

    2024 H1

    2024 H2

    2025 H1

    2025 H2

    2026 H1

    2026 H2

    Geopolitical risk

    79

    66

    85

    93

    87

    85

    95

    91

    Cyberattack

    75

    80

    70

    80

    73

    85

    82

    75

    Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

    0

    7

    14

    15

    16

    20

    32

    63

    Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

    32

    52

    44

    45

    62

    56

    47

    51

    Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

    13

    23

    14

    22

    33

    47

    47

    32

    Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

    22

    23

    14

    33

    20

    36

    30

    25

    Climate risk

    39

    39

    36

    29

    15

    17

    21

    19

    Operational risk

    21

    20

    12

    22

    33

    36

    35

    19

    Risk of infrastructure disruption

    1

    7

    12

    15

    9

    8

    16

    16

    Sovereign risk

    4

    2

    3

    7

    9

    14

    12

    14

    Household/corporate credit risk

    10

    7

    20

    24

    20

    14

    12

    12

    Inflation risk

    53

    57

    41

    24

    16

    7

    2

    9

    Risks around regulation/taxes

    17

    11

    15

    13

    16

    14

    11

    9

    Funding risk

    7

    9

    8

    4

    13

    10

    7

    7

    Risk of property price falls

    10

    13

    11

    7

    2

    3

    2

    7

    Risk of tightening in credit conditions

    8

    5

    3

    2

    0

    0

    4

    7

    Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy

    7

    9

    6

    2

    7

    3

    4

    7

    UK political risk

    28

    16

    21

    7

    5

    3

    16

    7

    Other

    19

    14

    11

    22

    5

    8

    5

    5

    Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

    3

    2

    2

    4

    7

    7

    2

    4

    Pandemic risk

    8

    5

    3

    0

    2

    0

    0

    2

    Risk of financial institution failure/distress

    6

    14

    17

    5

    5

    5

    2

    2

    Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (e)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    0

    2

    Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

    1

    0

    3

    4

    4

    2

    2

    2

    Risk surrounding cryptocurrencies

    0

    0

    2

    0

    4

    2

    0

    0

    Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

    3

    0

    3

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Number one source of risk to the UK financial system (f)

    Geopolitical risk

    28

    23

    41

    42

    42

    36

    46

    47

    Cyberattack

    10

    27

    21

    31

    18

    20

    26

    26

    Operational risk

    1

    0

    5

    5

    11

    5

    9

    7

    Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

    4

    0

    2

    5

    4

    5

    5

    5

    Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

    14

    16

    12

    5

    9

    8

    4

    4

    Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

    0

    2

    2

    0

    0

    3

    2

    4

    Household/corporate credit risk

    3

    0

    5

    2

    0

    0

    2

    2

    Inflation risk

    25

    14

    5

    4

    0

    2

    0

    2

    Risk of financial institution failure/distress

    0

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    0

    2

    Sovereign risk

    1

    2

    0

    0

    2

    7

    2

    2

    Climate risk

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    0

    Funding risk

    0

    2

    0

    0

    4

    5

    0

    0

    Other

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Pandemic risk

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

    0

    5

    2

    2

    4

    0

    2

    0

    Risk of infrastructure disruption

    1

    2

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of property price falls

    3

    2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of tightening in credit conditions

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk surrounding cryptocurrencies

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (e)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

    1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risks around regulation/taxes

    1

    0

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    0

    Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy

    1

    4

    0

    0

    2

    2

    0

    0

    UK political risk

    1

    0

    3

    0

    2

    2

    2

    0

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
    • (a) Respondents were asked which five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, in order of potential impact (ie greatest impact first). Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data.
    • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. Between 2020 H1 and 2021 H1, the survey was paused due to Covid.
    • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
    • (d) Percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in their top five, among those citing at least one risk.
    • (e) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.
    • (f) Percentages of respondents citing each risk as their number one risk (ie the risk with the greatest potential impact), among those citing at least one source of risk.
  • Risks most challenging to manage as a firm (a) (b) (c)

    2023 H1

    2023 H2

    2024 H1

    2024 H2

    2025 H1

    2025 H2

    2026 H1

    2026 H2

    Geopolitical risk

    49

    46

    70

    71

    67

    68

    81

    68

    Cyberattack

    50

    70

    59

    71

    62

    73

    77

    67

    Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

    0

    2

    10

    5

    9

    7

    11

    37

    Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

    24

    29

    18

    16

    35

    27

    23

    28

    Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

    11

    18

    10

    22

    11

    14

    19

    14

    Operational risk

    11

    11

    8

    16

    25

    20

    18

    12

    Risk of infrastructure disruption

    1

    7

    10

    9

    4

    7

    9

    11

    Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

    3

    5

    3

    11

    11

    15

    11

    9

    Risks around regulation/taxes

    11

    4

    7

    7

    13

    10

    7

    7

    Sovereign risk

    3

    2

    2

    4

    4

    8

    4

    7

    Inflation risk

    40

    41

    16

    9

    11

    3

    2

    5

    Other

    13

    5

    7

    11

    2

    7

    5

    5

    Funding risk

    6

    9

    2

    2

    7

    3

    5

    4

    Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

    3

    0

    2

    2

    0

    3

    2

    4

    UK political risk

    11

    7

    7

    4

    4

    3

    11

    4

    Climate risk

    15

    20

    16

    15

    5

    8

    5

    2

    Household/corporate credit risk

    7

    2

    16

    7

    4

    8

    4

    2

    Pandemic risk

    4

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    0

    2

    Risk of financial institution failure/distress

    0

    9

    8

    4

    5

    5

    2

    2

    Risk of property price falls

    6

    4

    8

    2

    2

    0

    0

    2

    Risk of tightening in credit conditions

    3

    4

    2

    2

    0

    0

    0

    2

    Risk surrounding the low interest rate environment (d)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

    0

    0

    3

    2

    2

    2

    2

    2

    Risks surrounding monetary and fiscal policy

    3

    4

    3

    0

    4

    0

    2

    2

    Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk surrounding cryptocurrencies

    0

    0

    0

    0

    2

    0

    0

    0

    Cited at least one key risk, but did not cite any risk as challenging to manage (%)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Number of respondents citing at least one source of risk

    72

    56

    66

    55

    55

    59

    57

    57

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
    • (a) After respondents had listed the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, they were asked to rank which of these risks they would find most challenging to manage as a firm. The data is based on participants top three ranked risks. Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data. Table entries are the percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in this second question, among those citing at least one source of risk.
    • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. Between 2020 H1 and 2021 H1, the survey was paused due to Covid.
    • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
    • (d) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.
  • Risks most probable to materialise (a) (b) (c)

    2024 H2

    2025 H1

    2025 H2

    2026 H1

    2026 H2

    Geopolitical risk

    75

    80

    71

    84

    88

    Cyberattack

    60

    44

    56

    56

    51

    Risks associated with a UK economic downturn

    29

    49

    41

    35

    37

    Risks surrounding artificial intelligence

    5

    2

    5

    14

    32

    Operational risk

    13

    18

    19

    23

    16

    Risk of financial market disruption/dislocation

    15

    16

    20

    14

    12

    Risks associated with an overseas/global economic downturn

    22

    9

    25

    18

    12

    Inflation risk

    15

    13

    3

    2

    7

    Risk of infrastructure disruption

    4

    5

    5

    9

    7

    Risk around regulation/taxes

    5

    11

    8

    9

    7

    Household/corporate credit risk

    15

    13

    8

    7

    5

    Risk of property price falls

    4

    2

    2

    0

    4

    Sovereign risk

    2

    2

    3

    4

    4

    Risks surrounding monetary/fiscal policy

    0

    2

    3

    4

    4

    Climate risk

    15

    4

    5

    9

    4

    Funding risk

    0

    4

    2

    0

    2

    Other

    9

    2

    5

    2

    2

    Risk of tightening in credit conditions

    2

    0

    0

    0

    2

    UK political risk

    4

    4

    3

    11

    2

    Risks surrounding low interest rate environment (d)

    0

    2

    0

    0

    2

    Risk of financial institution failure/distress

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risks around public anger against, or distrust of, financial institutions

    0

    2

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of lack of confidence in ratings, valuations and disclosure

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risk of loss of confidence in the authorities

    2

    4

    5

    0

    0

    Pandemic risk

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Risks surrounding cryptocurrencies

    0

    4

    0

    0

    0

    Cited at least one key risk, but did not cite any risk as most likely to materialise (%)

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Number of respondents citing at least one source of risk

    55

    55

    59

    57

    57

    Footnotes

    • Sources: Bank of England Systemic Risk Surveys and Bank calculations.
    • (a) After listing the five risks they believed would have the greatest impact on the UK financial system if they were to materialise, respondents were then asked to rank which of these risks they perceived as most likely to materialise. The data is based on participants top three ranked risks. This element of the survey was introduced in 2021 H2. Answers were provided in a free-text format and were subsequently coded into the above categories; only one category was selected for each answer. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the categories used to describe the latest data. Table entries are the percentages of respondents citing each risk at least once in this second question, among those citing at least one source of risk.
    • (b) The survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. Between 2020 H1 and 2021 H1, the survey was paused due to Covid.
    • (c) Figures are expressed as nearest whole integer, so may appear inconsistent with figures shown in the text of the survey.
    • (d) The definition of this risk includes risks associated with a snapback in low rates to more normal levels, as well as risks directly associated with low rates.
  1. The Systemic Risk Survey has been undertaken biannually since 2009, following a pilot survey conducted in July 2008. It was published for the first time in November 2011. The survey results complement other sources of information used by the Bank to identify system-wide risks.

  2. Since the 2009 H2 survey, short and medium term have been specifically identified as 0–12 months and 1–3 years respectively. These terms were not explicitly defined in earlier surveys.

  3. These summary categories are adjusted over time to better capture current risks cited. Risks cited in previous surveys have been regrouped into the new categories to ensure comparability across survey rounds.

  4. This question was introduced in the 2021 H2 survey.