Capital requirements, risk shifting and the mortgage market

Working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.
Published on 18 December 2015

Working Paper No. 572
By Arzu Uluc and Tomasz Wieladek 

We study the effect of changes to bank-specific capital requirements on mortgage loan supply with a new loan-level data set containing all mortgages issued in the United Kingdom between 2005 Q2 and 2007 Q2. We find that a rise of a 100 basis points in capital requirements leads to a 5.4% decline in individual loan size by bank. Loans issued by competing banks rise by roughly the same amount, which is indicative of credit substitution. Borrowers with an impaired credit history (verified income) are not (most) affected. This is consistent with origination of riskier loans to grow capital by raising retained earnings. No evidence for credit substitution of non-bank finance companies is found.

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