Export dynamics since the Great Trade Collapse: a cross-country analysis

Working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.
Published on 24 July 2015

Working Paper No. 535
By John Lewis and Selien De Schryder 

Using a panel model of goods exports for 16 OECD economies, we quantify advanced economies’ export performance since the ‘Great Trade Collapse’ (GTC). We go beyond the traditional determinants of trade to include a variable measuring shifts in the sectoral composition of world trade and split the real exchange rate into its constituent parts to allow for a differential response to unit labour costs and the nominal exchange rate. We find that, a pre-crisis model based on average coefficients explains the recovery in aggregate exports since the GTC well. But at the country level, we do find substantial cross-country variation in export performance.

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November 2015

This is an updated version of the Staff Working Paper originally published on 24 July.

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