Contagion, spillover and interdependence

Working papers set out research in progress by our staff, with the aim of encouraging comments and debate.
Published on 11 August 2016

Working Paper No. 607
By Roberto Rigobon

This paper reviews the empirical literature on international spillovers and contagion. Theoretical models of spillover and contagion imply that the reduced form observable variables suffer from two possible sources of bias: endogeneity and omitted variables. These econometric problems in combination with the heteroskedasticity that plagues the data produce time varying biases. Several empirical methodologies are evaluated from this perspective: non-parametric techniques such as correlations and principal components, as well as parametric methods such as OLS, VAR, event studies, ARCH, non-linear regressions, etc. The paper concludes that there is no single technique that can solve the full fledge problem and discusses three methodologies that can partially address some of the questions in the literature.

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