Staff Working Paper No. 990
By Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Richard Harrison and Rana Sajedi
We use a structural overlapping-generations model to quantify the effects of five exogenous forces that drive the global trend equilibrium real interest rate, Global R*. We use data for 31 countries to extract the global trend components of the five drivers and to derive an empirical estimate of Global R*, which we use to calibrate the model. We design a recursive simulation method in which beliefs about the future path of the drivers are updated gradually. In our simulation, Global R* rises from the mid-1950s to the mid-1970s, declining steadily thereafter. The decline is driven predominantly by slowing productivity growth and increasing longevity.
Decomposing the drivers of Global R*