The November DMP survey was conducted between 8 and 22 November and received 2987 responses.
55% of firms reported that Brexit was one of their top three sources of uncertainty in November. That was similar to the average of the previous three months. Brexit-related uncertainty remains elevated and well above its average since the referendum.
The UK’s departure date from the EU was extended to 31 January 2020 before the November survey opened. That was reflected in respondents’ expectations for when the UK will leave the EU. The average probability placed on leaving the EU in 2019 fell sharply. Whereas, the average probability of the UK leaving the EU in 2020 increased from 36% to 63%. And the average probability of leaving in 2021 or later increased from 8% to 18%.
In the latest survey, the average probability of the UK leaving the EU in 2020 with a deal was 46%. The chance of leaving without a deal was put at 16%.
In the November survey, the date at which businesses expected Brexit-related uncertainty to be resolved was also pushed further into the future. That continued a trend seen over recent months. 57% of those surveyed expected uncertainty to be resolved in 2020 in the latest survey, up from 54% in October. 34% of respondents thought that it would not be resolved until at least 2021, up from 27%.
Monthly aggregate-level data for a limited number of DMP series up to November:
Quarterly aggregate-level data for all survey questions up to October:
The DMP was set up in August 2016 by the Bank of England together with academics from Stanford University and the University of Nottingham. It was designed to be representative of the population of UK businesses. All results are weighted. See Bloom et al (2017) for more details.
The DMP receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.