Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - January 2020

The Decision Maker Panel (DMP) is a survey of Chief Financial Officers from small, medium and large UK businesses. We use it to monitor developments in the economy and to track businesses’ views.
Published on 30 January 2020

The January DMP survey was conducted between 3 and 17 January and received 2,871 responses.

The January DMP data show that Brexit uncertainty has fallen since the general election.

The proportion of firms citing Brexit as one of their top three current sources of uncertainty fell to 45% in January, compared with 55% in November and 53% in December. This was the lowest level since August 2018.

Businesses expect the remaining uncertainties around Brexit to take longer to be resolved than in the December survey. In January, 59% of businesses expected uncertainty to persist until at least 2021. That proportion increased from 43% in December, continuing a trend seen over recent months.

The January survey asked firms, for the first time, when they think the transitional arrangements for the UK leaving the EU will end and if there will be a trade deal agreed by then. The probability of there being no transition period beyond the end of 2020 was estimated at just over 50%, consistent with government policy.

The average probability of a trade deal being agreed and transitional arrangements ending by the end of 2020 was 31%. There was a 20% chance of the transition period ending at the end of 2020 with no trade agreement in place. Businesses thought there was 49% chance that completing the withdrawal process will take longer than a year.

The DMP was set up in August 2016 by the Bank of England together with academics from Stanford University and the University of Nottingham. It was designed to be representative of the population of UK businesses. All results are weighted. See Bloom et al (2017) for more details.

The DMP receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.