Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - August 2022

The Decision Maker Panel (DMP) is a survey of Chief Financial Officers from small, medium and large UK businesses. We use it to monitor developments in the economy and to track businesses’ views.
Published on 01 September 2022

The August DMP survey was conducted between 5 and 19 August and received 2,561 responses.

Annual private sector output price inflation in the DMP was 7.7% in the three months to August, 0.1 percentage points higher than in the three months to July. The single month figure for August was 7.6%, down from 7.9% in July. Expected year-ahead annual output price inflation was 6.5% in the three months to August, up from 6.3% the previous month (the single month data was 6.4%, 0.2 percentage points lower than in July).

Over the 12 months to August, average unit costs were estimated to have increased by 9.8%. Over the next 12 months, firms expected unit cost growth to be 8.3%, on average. Average wage growth was reported to have been 6.4% over the 12 months to August, and was expected to be 5.5% over the next 12 months. 

Perceptions of current CPI inflation averaged 9.6% in the August survey. Looking ahead, DMP members expected CPI inflation to be 8.4% one-year ahead, up from 7.3% in the July survey, and 4.2% in three years’ time.

The percentage of non-labour inputs being disrupted rose to 15% in August, from 14% in July. 

Recruitment difficulties remained widespread. In August, 86% of firms reported they were finding it harder to recruit new employees compared with normal. Of those, 63% reported that it was ‘much harder’, 3 percentage points higher than in July. 

Annual employment growth in the three months to August was 4.3%, down from 4.5% in the three months to July. Expected year-ahead employment growth was 2.2% in the three months to August, down from 2.4% in the previous month.

The level of overall business uncertainty edged up in August. 63% of respondents reported that uncertainty for their business was ‘high’ or ‘very high’ at the moment, 1 percentage point higher than in July. Uncertainty relating specifically to the conflict in Ukraine and to Brexit also increased in August, with the percentage of respondents ranking each as a top-three source of uncertainty up 2 percentage points and 1 percentage point respectively. Uncertainty relating to Covid decreased sharply in August, with 13% of respondents citing it as a top three source of uncertainty, down from 23% in July.

The DMP was set up in August 2016 by the Bank of England together with academics from Stanford University and the University of Nottingham. It was designed to be representative of the population of UK businesses. All results are weighted. See Bloom et al (2017) for more details.

The DMP receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.