Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - October 2022

The Decision Maker Panel (DMP) is a survey of Chief Financial Officers from small, medium and large UK businesses. We use it to monitor developments in the economy and to track businesses’ views.
Published on 03 November 2022

The October DMP survey was conducted between 7 and 21 October and received 2,614 responses.

Annual private sector output price inflation in the DMP was 7.6% in the three months to October, 0.1 percentage points lower than in the three months to September. The single month figure for October was 7.8%, up from 7.4% in September. Expected year-ahead annual output price inflation was 6.4% in the three months to October, down from 6.6% the previous month (the single month data was 6.2%, 0.4 percentage points lower than in September). 

Over the 12 months to October, average unit costs were estimated to have increased by 9.7%. Over the next 12 months, firms expected unit cost growth to be 8.4%, on average. Average wage growth was reported to have been 6.1% over the 12 months to October, and was expected to be 5.8% over the next 12 months. 

Perceptions of annual CPI inflation in October averaged 9.7%. Looking ahead, DMP members expected CPI inflation to be 7.6% one-year ahead, down from 9.5% in the September survey, and 4.0% in three years’ time.

The percentage of non-labour inputs being disrupted fell to 13% in October, from 15% in September. 

Recruitment difficulties remained widespread. In October, 83% of firms reported they were finding it harder to recruit new employees compared with normal. Of those, 54% reported that it was ‘much harder’, 5 percentage points lower than in September. 

Annual employment growth in the three months to October was 4.2%, down from 4.6% in the three months to September. Expected year-ahead employment growth was 1.8% in the three months to October, down from 2.1% in the previous month.

The level of overall business uncertainty edged down in October. 65% of respondents reported that uncertainty for their business was ‘high’ or ‘very high’ at the moment, 4 percentage point lower than in September. Uncertainty relating specifically to the conflict in Ukraine and to Brexit also decreased in October, with the percentage of respondents ranking each as a top-three source of uncertainty down 1 percentage point and 4 percentage points respectively. Uncertainty relating to Covid also edged down in October, with 10% of respondents citing it as a top three source of uncertainty, down from 12% in September.

The DMP was set up in August 2016 by the Bank of England together with academics from Stanford University and the University of Nottingham. It was designed to be representative of the population of UK businesses. All results are weighted. See Bloom et al (2017) for more details.

The DMP receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.