The September DMP survey was conducted between 2 and 16 September and received 2,522 responses.
Annual private sector output price inflation in the DMP remained stable in the three months to September, at 7.7%. The single month figure for September was 7.4%, down from 7.7% in August. Expected year-ahead annual output price inflation was 6.6% in the three months to September, up from 6.5% the previous month (the single month data was also 6.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than in August).
Over the 12 months to September, average cost growth was unchanged from the August survey, at 9.8%. Over the next 12 months, firms expected unit cost growth to be 9.1%, on average, up from 8.3% in the previous month. Average wage growth was reported to have been 6.5% over the 12 months to September, and was expected to be 5.9% over the next 12 months.
Perceptions of current CPI inflation averaged 10.2% in the September survey, up from 9.6% in August. Looking ahead, DMP members expected CPI inflation to be 9.5% one-year ahead, up from 8.4% in the August survey, and 4.8% in three years’ time.
The percentage of non-labour inputs being disrupted remained stable at 15% in September.
Recruitment difficulties remained widespread, although there was a decrease in the proportion of firms reporting recruitment difficulties in September. 84% of firms reported they were finding it harder to recruit new employees compared with normal, down from 86% in August. Of those, 59% reported that it was ‘much harder’, 4 percentage points lower than in August.
Annual employment growth in the three months to September was 4.6%, up from 4.3% in the three months to August. Expected year-ahead employment growth was 2.1% in the three months to September, down from 2.2% in the previous month.
The level of overall business uncertainty continued to increase in September. 69% of respondents reported that uncertainty for their business was ‘high’ or ‘very high’ at the moment, 6 percentage points higher than in August. Uncertainty relating specifically to the conflict in Ukraine also increased in September, with the percentage of respondents citing the conflict as a top-three source of uncertainty up 10 percentage points from August. Uncertainty relating to Brexit and Covid decreased in September, with the percentage of respondents ranking these as a top three source of uncertainty, down 1.4 and 0.8 percentage points respectively.