Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - September 2022

The Decision Maker Panel (DMP) is a survey of Chief Financial Officers from small, medium and large UK businesses. We use it to monitor developments in the economy and to track businesses’ views.
Published on 06 October 2022

The September DMP survey was conducted between 2 and 16 September and received 2,522 responses.

Annual private sector output price inflation in the DMP remained stable in the three months to September, at 7.7%. The single month figure for September was 7.4%, down from 7.7% in August. Expected year-ahead annual output price inflation was 6.6% in the three months to September, up from 6.5% the previous month (the single month data was also 6.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than in August). 

Over the 12 months to September, average cost growth was unchanged from the August survey, at 9.8%. Over the next 12 months, firms expected unit cost growth to be 9.1%, on average, up from 8.3% in the previous month. Average wage growth was reported to have been 6.5% over the 12 months to September, and was expected to be 5.9% over the next 12 months. 

Perceptions of current CPI inflation averaged 10.2% in the September survey, up from 9.6% in August. Looking ahead, DMP members expected CPI inflation to be 9.5% one-year ahead, up from 8.4% in the August survey, and 4.8% in three years’ time.

The percentage of non-labour inputs being disrupted remained stable at 15% in September. 

Recruitment difficulties remained widespread, although there was a decrease in the proportion of firms reporting recruitment difficulties in September. 84% of firms reported they were finding it harder to recruit new employees compared with normal, down from 86% in August. Of those, 59% reported that it was ‘much harder’, 4 percentage points lower than in August. 

Annual employment growth in the three months to September was 4.6%, up from 4.3% in the three months to August. Expected year-ahead employment growth was 2.1% in the three months to September, down from 2.2% in the previous month.

The level of overall business uncertainty continued to increase in September. 69% of respondents reported that uncertainty for their business was ‘high’ or ‘very high’ at the moment, 6 percentage points higher than in August. Uncertainty relating specifically to the conflict in Ukraine also increased in September, with the percentage of respondents citing the conflict as a top-three source of uncertainty up 10 percentage points from August. Uncertainty relating to Brexit and Covid decreased in September, with the percentage of respondents ranking these as a top three source of uncertainty, down 1.4 and 0.8 percentage points respectively.

The DMP was set up in August 2016 by the Bank of England together with academics from Stanford University and the University of Nottingham. It was designed to be representative of the population of UK businesses. All results are weighted. See Bloom et al (2017) for more details.

The DMP receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.