Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - August 2023

The Decision Maker Panel (DMP) is a survey of Chief Financial Officers from small, medium and large UK businesses. We use it to monitor developments in the economy and to track businesses’ views.
Published on 07 September 2023

The August DMP survey was conducted between 4 and 18 August and received 2,230 responses.

Realised output price inflation remained at 7.4% in the three months to August.  The single month data for August was also 7.4%, 0.4 percentage points lower than in July. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

Looking ahead, businesses expect output price inflation to fall over the next year.  Year-ahead output price inflation was expected to be 4.9% in the three months to August, down from 5.2% in the three months to July. Expected inflation has been gradually falling over the last year.

One-year ahead CPI inflation expectations decreased to 4.8% in August, down from 5.4% in July. Similarly, three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations decreased slightly to 3.2% in August, down 0.1 percentage points relative to July. Current CPI perceptions of firms were 7.8% in August (down from 8.4% in July). Annual CPI inflation fell from 7.9% to 6.8% in the latest ONS release on 16 August, during the DMP survey window.

Expected year-ahead wage growth remained the same at 5.0% on the month in August, and the three-month moving average decreased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 5.1%. This is lower than realised wage growth, which was at 6.9% in both the single month data and the three months to August.

Uncertainty was little changed in August.  53% of firms reported that the overall level of uncertainty facing their business was high or very high, the same as in July.  Sales uncertainty and price uncertainty both fell slightly on a three-month moving average basis.

The August DMP survey also included some questions on climate change.  12% of firms reported that climate change was either the most important factor or in the top three most important sources of uncertainty facing their business at the moment. Around half of firms expect climate change to add to their capital spending over the next three years.

The DMP was set up in August 2016 by the Bank of England together with academics from Stanford University and the University of Nottingham. It was designed to be representative of the population of UK businesses. All results are weighted. See Bloom et al (2017) for more details.

The DMP receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.