Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - July 2023

The Decision Maker Panel (DMP) is a survey of Chief Financial Officers from small, medium and large UK businesses. We use it to monitor developments in the economy and to track businesses’ views.
Published on 03 August 2023

The July DMP survey was conducted between 7 and 21 July and received 2,227 responses.

Realised output price inflation increased to 7.4% in the three months to July, up from 7.3% in the three months to June. The figure was 7.8% in the July data, although the monthly numbers have been more volatile recently. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

Looking ahead, businesses expect output price inflation to fall over the next year as the year-ahead output price inflation was expected to be 5.2% in the three months to July, down 0.1 percentage point compared to the three months to June. 

One-year ahead CPI inflation expectations decreased to 5.4% in July, down from 5.7% in June. Similarly, three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations decreased to 3.3% in July, down 0.4 percentage points relative to June. Current CPI perceptions of firms were 8.4% in July (down from 8.9% in June). Annual CPI inflation fell from 8.7% to 7.9% in the latest ONS release on 19 July, during the DMP survey window.

Firms reported that annual unit cost growth was 9.4% in the three months to July, down 0.2 percentage points from the three months to June. Expectations for year-ahead unit cost growth also declined from 6.9% to 6.7% in the three months to July.

Expected year-ahead wage growth decreased to 5.0% on the month in July (down from 5.3% in June) and the three-month moving average decreased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 5.2%.

In July, 53% of firms reported that the overall level of uncertainty facing their business was high or very high (up from 47% in June), as well as the three-month average increasing from 50% to 52%. Although it is only a small increase, this contradicts the clear downward trend in the series since September. Both sales and price uncertainty decreased in the monthly series, however, the three-month moving averages increased slightly for both series. Price uncertainty remains at relatively high levels.

The DMP was set up in August 2016 by the Bank of England together with academics from Stanford University and the University of Nottingham. It was designed to be representative of the population of UK businesses. All results are weighted. See Bloom et al (2017) for more details.

The DMP receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.