The July DMP survey was conducted between 7 and 21 July and received 2,227 responses.
Realised output price inflation increased to 7.4% in the three months to July, up from 7.3% in the three months to June. The figure was 7.8% in the July data, although the monthly numbers have been more volatile recently. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.
Looking ahead, businesses expect output price inflation to fall over the next year as the year-ahead output price inflation was expected to be 5.2% in the three months to July, down 0.1 percentage point compared to the three months to June.
One-year ahead CPI inflation expectations decreased to 5.4% in July, down from 5.7% in June. Similarly, three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations decreased to 3.3% in July, down 0.4 percentage points relative to June. Current CPI perceptions of firms were 8.4% in July (down from 8.9% in June). Annual CPI inflation fell from 8.7% to 7.9% in the latest ONS release on 19 July, during the DMP survey window.
Firms reported that annual unit cost growth was 9.4% in the three months to July, down 0.2 percentage points from the three months to June. Expectations for year-ahead unit cost growth also declined from 6.9% to 6.7% in the three months to July.
Expected year-ahead wage growth decreased to 5.0% on the month in July (down from 5.3% in June) and the three-month moving average decreased slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 5.2%.
In July, 53% of firms reported that the overall level of uncertainty facing their business was high or very high (up from 47% in June), as well as the three-month average increasing from 50% to 52%. Although it is only a small increase, this contradicts the clear downward trend in the series since September. Both sales and price uncertainty decreased in the monthly series, however, the three-month moving averages increased slightly for both series. Price uncertainty remains at relatively high levels.