Monthly Decision Maker Panel data - May 2023

The Decision Maker Panel (DMP) is a survey of Chief Financial Officers from small, medium and large UK businesses. We use it to monitor developments in the economy and to track businesses’ views.
Published on 01 June 2023
The May DMP survey was conducted between 5 and 19 May and received 2,348 responses.

Realised output price inflation slightly decreased to 7.6% in the three months to May. Year-ahead output price inflation was expected to be 5.4% in the three months to May, down from 5.5% in the three months to April. Similarly, there was a decrease from 5.9% to 5.1% in the more volatile single month data between April and May. Businesses expect output price inflation to fall over the next year. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.

In May, one-year ahead CPI inflation expectations ticked up to 5.9%, up from 5.6% in April. Three-year ahead CPI inflation expectations slightly increased to 3.5% in May, from 3.4% in April. Note that the May DMP survey closed before the latest CPI inflation release on 24 May.

In May, 54% of firms reported that the overall level of uncertainty facing their business was high or very high. This is the second consecutive month where overall uncertainty has increased, although the levels are still well below those seen in the second half of 2022. On the contrary, price uncertainty fell slightly on the month, although the level remains significantly above pre-pandemic averages.

Realised annual investment growth has fallen back to around 5% over recent months, but expected investment growth ticked up in May. Three-month average expectations for year-ahead investment growth increased to around 5%, having been slightly negative around the turn of the year.
The DMP was set up in August 2016 by the Bank of England together with academics from Stanford University and the University of Nottingham. It was designed to be representative of the population of UK businesses. All results are weighted. See Bloom et al (2017) for more details.

The DMP receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council.