News Release
The September 2026 DMP survey was conducted between 4-18 September 2026 and received 1,993 responses.
Firms reported that their realised annual own-price growth was 3.7% in the three months to September, unchanged from the three months to August. Note that the DMP covers own prices from firms across the whole economy, not just consumer-facing firms.
Year-ahead own-price inflation was expected to be 3.7% in the three months to September, 0.1 percentage points lower than firms reported in the three months to August. Businesses therefore expect output price inflation to be unchanged over the next year, based on three-month averages.
Expectations for year-ahead CPI inflation remained unchanged at 3.1% in the three months to September. The corresponding measure for three-year-ahead CPI inflation expectations was 2.8% in the three months to September, which remains unchanged relative to the three months to August.
Firms reported that annual wage growth was 4.0% in the three months to September, unchanged from the three months to August. Expected year-ahead wage growth was also unchanged, at 3.4% in the three months to September. This implies that firms expect their wage growth to decline by 0.6 percentage points over the next 12 months.
Firms reported that realised annual employment growth was -0.2% in the three months to September, unchanged from -0.2% in the three months to August. Expectations for employment growth over the next year also firmed slightly, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 0.2% in the three months to September.
Since April, the DMP survey has asked firms how they expect the recent energy shock to affect their business over the next 12 months. In September, higher prices and lower profit margins remained the most common forms of adjustment. 57% of firms expected to increase prices (7 percentage points lower than in April and 2 percentage points lower than in August), while 7% expected to lower prices. At the same time, 70% of firms expected lower profit margins, 2 percentage points higher than in April.