About the conference
Date: 25 and 26 June 2025
Format: Hybrid
Event Directors: John Barrdear, Andrew Blake, Angus Foulis, Mike Goldby, John Power, and Jagdish Tripathy
This conference will bring together leading researchers, central bankers and practitioners to consider lessons for the Bank of England's monetary policy transformation work following the Bernanke review. It forms part of the Bank's commitment to engage with and seek input from the external community on the substance of the issues raised.
It will examine inter-connected issues under the broad heading of uncertainty and risks: including topics like forecast evaluation and modelling; communicating uncertainty; and wider monetary strategy.
Confirmed external speakers include:
- Anna Breman (Deputy Governor, Riksbank)
- Michael McMahon (University of Oxford)
- Athanasios Orphanides (MIT)
- David Spiegelhalter (University of Cambridge)
This conference will be hybrid. Please be aware we have limited availability for in-person spaces for this conference, there is no guarantee of attendance. We politely ask you to consider virtual participation if you are unable to commit to the two days of the conference.
You will receive a notification as to whether your application is successful or not and if you have been offered an in-person or virtual place.
Conference programme| Wednesday 25 June | |
| Opening Remarks: Clare Lombardelli and John Power (Bank of England) |
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| Keynote: The interest rate conditioning assumption and monetary policy communication Speaker: Athanasios Orphanides (MIT) |
A. Orphanides slides |
| Forecast accuracy and efficiency at the Bank of England Speaker: Tim Willems (Bank of England) Discussant: Jennie Castle (University of Oxford) |
T. Willems slides J. Castle discussion slides |
| Central bank work on modelling and forecasting (1) Sentiment and uncertainty indicators using artificial intelligence Speaker: Morteza Ghomi (Banco de España) |
M. Ghomi slides |
| Keynote: Daring to think differently – The Riksbank’s monetary policy communication Speaker: Anna Breman (Riksbank) |
Speech by Anna Breman |
| Central bank work on modelling and forecasting (2) A SMARTer way to forecast Speaker: Ørjan Robstad (Norges Bank) |
Ø. Robstad slides |
| Panel discussion on best practice in forecasting for monetary policy purposes Chair: Fergal Shortall (Bank of England) Panellists: Ana Galvao (Bloomberg Economics), Witness Simbanegavi (South African Reserve Bank), Ben Nelson |
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| Central bank work on modelling and forecasting (3) Decompositions, forecasts and scenarios from an estimated DSGE model for the UK economy (Bank of England Macro Technical Paper No. 1) Speaker: Sumer Singh (Bank of England) |
S.Singh slides Decompositions, forecasts and scenarios from an estimated DSGE model for the UK economy |
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Closing Remarks |
| Thursday 26 June | |
| Keynote: Monetary Policy and Uncertainty - The Communication Challenge Speaker: Michael McMahon (University of Oxford) |
M. McMahon slides |
| Panel discussion on communicating monetary policy and uncertainty to technical audiences Chair: Megan Greene (Bank of England) Panellists: Andy Chaytor (Nomura), Jack Meaning (Barclays), Bruna Skarica (Morgan Stanley) |
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| From trading floors to policy calls: the value and evolution of our interactions with financial markets Speaker: Andrea Rosen (Bank of England) |
From trading floors to policy calls: the value and evolution of our interactions with financial markets − speech by Andrea Rosen |
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Central bank papers on inflation uncertainty and communications The causal effects of inflation uncertainty on households’ beliefs and action The effect of inflation uncertainty on households’ expectations and spending |
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| Keynote: Communicating uncertainty about the future, the present and the past Speaker: David Spiegelhalter (University of Cambridge) |
D. Spiegelhalter slides |
| Reflections and closing remarks Speakers: Iain de Weymarn and John Power (Bank of England) |