CCBS Conference: Transforming monetary policy – How should we think about uncertainty and risks?

Hybrid: 25 – 26 June 2025

About the conference

Date: 25 and 26 June 2025

Format: Hybrid

Event Directors: John Barrdear, Andrew Blake, Angus Foulis, Mike Goldby, John Power, and Jagdish Tripathy

This conference will bring together leading researchers, central bankers and practitioners to consider lessons for the Bank of England's monetary policy transformation work following the Bernanke review. It forms part of the Bank's commitment to engage with and seek input from the external community on the substance of the issues raised.
 
It will examine inter-connected issues under the broad heading of uncertainty and risks: including topics like forecast evaluation and modelling; communicating uncertainty; and wider monetary strategy. 
 
Confirmed external speakers include:

  • Anna Breman (Deputy Governor, Riksbank)
  • Michael McMahon (University of Oxford)
  • Athanasios Orphanides (MIT)
  • David Spiegelhalter (University of Cambridge)

This conference will be hybrid. Please be aware we have limited availability for in-person spaces for this conference, there is no guarantee of attendance. We politely ask you to consider virtual participation if you are unable to commit to the two days of the conference.

You will receive a notification as to whether your application is successful or not and if you have been offered an in-person or virtual place.

Conference programme

Wednesday 25 June  
Opening Remarks: Clare Lombardelli and John Power (Bank of England)
 
Keynote: The interest rate conditioning assumption and monetary policy communication
Speaker: Athanasios Orphanides (MIT)
A. Orphanides slides
Forecast accuracy and efficiency at the Bank of England
Speaker: Tim Willems (Bank of England)
Discussant: Jennie Castle (University of Oxford)
T. Willems slides
J. Castle discussion slides
Central bank work on modelling and forecasting (1)
Sentiment and uncertainty indicators using artificial intelligence

Speaker: Morteza Ghomi (Banco de España)
M. Ghomi slides
Keynote: Daring to think differently – The Riksbank’s monetary policy communication
Speaker: Anna Breman (Riksbank)
Speech by Anna Breman
Central bank work on modelling and forecasting (2)
A SMARTer way to forecast

Speaker: Ørjan Robstad (Norges Bank)
Ø. Robstad slides
Panel discussion on best practice in forecasting for monetary policy purposes
Chair: Fergal Shortall (Bank of England)
Panellists: Ana Galvao (Bloomberg Economics), Witness Simbanegavi (South African Reserve Bank), Ben Nelson
 
Central bank work on modelling and forecasting (3)
Decompositions, forecasts and scenarios from an estimated DSGE model for the UK economy (Bank of England Macro Technical Paper No. 1)

Speaker: Sumer Singh (Bank of England)
S.Singh slides
Decompositions, forecasts and scenarios from an estimated DSGE model for the UK economy

Closing Remarks
Speaker: John Power (Bank of England)

 
Thursday 26 June  
Keynote: Monetary Policy and Uncertainty - The Communication Challenge
Speaker: Michael McMahon (University of Oxford)
M. McMahon slides
Panel discussion on communicating monetary policy and uncertainty to technical audiences
Chair: Megan Greene (Bank of England)
Panellists: Andy Chaytor (Nomura), Jack Meaning (Barclays), Bruna Skarica (Morgan Stanley)
 
From trading floors to policy calls: the value and evolution of our interactions with financial markets
Speaker: Andrea Rosen (Bank of England)
From trading floors to policy calls: the value and evolution of our interactions with financial markets − speech by Andrea Rosen

Central bank papers on inflation uncertainty and communications
Chair: Christoph Herler (Bank of England)

The causal effects of inflation uncertainty on households’ beliefs and action
Speaker: Dimitris Georgarakos (European Central Bank)

The effect of inflation uncertainty on households’ expectations and spending
Speaker: Olena Kostyshyna (Bank of Canada)

C. Herler slides

 

 

 

O. Kostyshyna slides

Keynote: Communicating uncertainty about the future, the present and the past
Speaker: David Spiegelhalter (University of Cambridge)
D. Spiegelhalter slides
Reflections and closing remarks
Speakers: Iain de Weymarn and John Power (Bank of England)


This page was last updated 23 July 2025