This report presents the results of the 2015 H2 survey which was conducted between 07 September and 25 September.
Probability of a high-impact event and confidence in the UK financial system
- The perceived probability of a high-impact event in the UK financial system over the short term has fallen slightly. The perceived probability of such an event over the medium term has increased by a similar amount in absolute terms. Ten per cent(-5 percentage points since the 2015 H1 survey) of respondents now consider the probability of a high-impact event as high or very high over the next year; 31% (+6 percentage points) between one and three years ahead.
- Confidence in the stability of the UK financial system has risen since the 2015 H1 survey. Respondents are more likely to judge themselves as very confident (29%, +8 percentage points since the 2015 H1 survey) and less likely as not very confident (6%, -2 percentage points).
Sources of risk to the UK financial system
- The risk to the UK financial system most cited by respondents was that of an economic downturn (mentioned by 72% of respondents, +16 percentage points since 2015 H1). This was also most frequently cited as respondents’ number one risk. About one third of responses for this risk referred to downturns in emerging market economies (EMEs).
- Geopolitical risk increased slightly (+5 percentage points to 46%). The risk of cyber attack increased for the second consecutive survey to a new survey high (+15 percentage points to 46%). The perceived risk of financial market disruption/dislocation was almost unchanged, remaining high (+2 percentage point to 44%). Concerns about sovereign risk fell noticeably from the levels recorded in the last survey when concerns about Greece were elevated (-22 percentage points to 35%). Perceptions of UK political risk fell, perhaps because the 2015 UK General Election has passed (-13 percentage points to 26%). Within this risk, many respondents cited concern over the EU referendum.
Risks most challenging to manage as a firm
- Risk of an economic downturn was most commonly cited as the risk most challenging to manage. The percentage of respondents mentioning this risk increased by eight percentage points (26% to 34%). The percentage of respondents mentioning sovereign risk, the risk previously most commonly identified as the most challenging to manage, fell noticeably (32% to 17%).