Working Paper No. 459
By Charles T Carlstrom, Timothy S Fuerst and Matthias Paustian
Recent monetary policy experience suggests a simple test for models of monetary non-neutrality. Suppose the central bank pegs the nominal interest rate below steady state for a reasonably short period of time. Familiar intuition suggests that this should be inflationary. We pursue this simple test in three variants of the familiar Dynamic New Keynesian (DNK) model. Some variants of the model produce counterintuitive inflation reversals where an interest rate peg leads to sharp deflations.