Overview
This survey forms part of the Bank’s quantitative market intelligence gathering. It is formulated by Bank of England staff, and enhances policymakers’ understanding of market expectations. The questions involve topics that are widely discussed in the public domain, and never presume any particular policy action. Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members are not involved in the survey’s design.
Survey respondents originate from a broad set of market participant firms, selected by the Bank based on a number of criteria, including: (i) relevant market activity in UK rates or money markets; (ii) expertise in UK rates markets and/or UK monetary policy; (iii) willingness to participate regularly in the survey and in the Bank’s market intelligence activity; and (iv) membership of one of the Bank’s external market committees.
Please contact MarketParticipantsSurvey@bankofengland.co.uk for queries or for further information.
Survey results
The survey was open from 21–23 January 2026 with responses being received from 92 market participants. For most questions, median responses across participants, along with the 25th and 75th percentiles, are reported.footnote [1] For questions that ask respondents to weight different factors or assign probabilities to specific outcomes, the mean weightings or probabilities are reported. For questions that ask respondents to select one option from a given set of possibilities, the respondent count against each option is reported.
Question 1: Expectations for Bank Rate
1a) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for Bank Rate after the following MPC meetings. (a)
25th percentile | 50th percentile | 75th percentile | Number of responses | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
5 February 2026 MPC | 3.75 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 92 |
19 March 2026 MPC | 3.50 | 3.75 | 3.75 | 92 |
30 April 2026 MPC | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 92 |
18 June 2026 MPC | 3.25 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 92 |
30 July 2026 MPC | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 92 |
17 September 2026 MPC | 3.25 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 92 |
5 November 2026 MPC | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 92 |
17 December 2026 MPC | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 92 |
One year ahead (February 2027 MPC) | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 91 |
End-2027 Q1 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 90 |
End-2027 Q2 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 90 |
End-2027 Q3 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.25 | 90 |
Two years ahead (February 2028) | 3.00 | 3.13 | 3.50 | 90 |
Three years ahead (February 2029) | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 88 |
Five years ahead (February 2031) | 3.00 | 3.25 | 3.50 | 85 |
1b) And where do you see the level of Bank Rate at which monetary policy is neither expansionary nor contractionary (often referred to as the neutral, natural or equilibrium rate)? (a)
25th percentile | 50th percentile | 75th percentile | Number of responses |
|---|---|---|---|
3.00 | 3.00 | 3.50 | 91 |
1ci) Please indicate the percentage probability that you attach to Bank Rate being at the following levels after the 5 February 2026 meeting. (a)
Mean probability (%) | |
|---|---|
3.25% | 0.4 |
3.50% | 10.3 |
3.75% | 88.9 |
4.00% | 0.4 |
Footnotes
- (a) In the question provided to respondents, the different Bank Rate outcomes spanned <2.50% and >5.00% at the extremes, and all 25 basis point increments in between. Results have been truncated where the mean probabilities above or below a certain outcome were close to or at zero. Mean probabilities are rounded to one decimal place. 90 respondents answered this question.
1cii) Please indicate the percentage probability that you attach to Bank Rate being at the following levels after the 19 March 2026 meeting. (a)
Mean probability (%) | |
|---|---|
<3.25% | 0.4 |
3.25% | 2.3 |
3.50% | 42.3 |
3.75% | 54.1 |
4.00% | 0.9 |
Footnotes
- (a) In the question provided to respondents, the different Bank Rate outcomes spanned <2.50% and >5.00% at the extremes, and all 25 basis point increments in between. Results have been aggregated or truncated where the mean probabilities above or below a certain outcome were close to or at zero. Mean probabilities are rounded to one decimal place. 90 respondents answered this question.
1d) Please indicate the percentage probability that you attach to Bank Rate reaching its lowest level this cycle, or ‘trough rate’, at the following levels. (a)
Mean probability (%) | |
|---|---|
At the current level of 3.75% | 6.2 |
3.50% | 18.1 |
3.25% | 24.5 |
3.00% | 23.2 |
2.75% | 10.8 |
2.50% | 6.5 |
2.25% | 3.1 |
2.00% | 2.1 |
1.75% | 1.4 |
1.50% | 1.0 |
1.25% | 0.8 |
<1.25% | 2.3 |
1ei) Please weight the following factors in terms of their importance in influencing your expectations for the near-term path for Bank Rate. (a)
Mean weighting (%) | |
|---|---|
Your own perceptions of the UK outlook | 45.3 |
Your own perceptions of the global outlook | 21.5 |
The MPC’s communications | 30.8 |
Other | 2.4 |
1eii) Within your own perceptions of the UK outlook, please weight the following subfactors in terms of their importance in influencing your expectations for the near-term path for Bank Rate. (a)
Mean weighting (%) | |
|---|---|
Inflation outcomes (eg headline CPI, services price inflation) | 30.5 |
Activity indicators (eg GDP growth, PMIs) | 15.5 |
Labour cost indicators (eg wage growth) | 20.1 |
Indicators of labour market conditions (eg unemployment, vacancies) | 18.8 |
Inflation expectations and forward-looking pricing signals (eg firms’ price-setting expectations) | 13.6 |
Other | 1.6 |
Question 2: Macroeconomic outlook
2a) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for the annual rate of CPI inflation – conditioned on your Bank Rate expectations (question 1a) – at each of the following time horizons. (a)
25th percentile | 50th percentile | 75th percentile | Number of responses | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
End-2026 Q1 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 88 |
End-2026 Q2 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 88 |
End-2026 Q3 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 88 |
End-2026 Q4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 88 |
One year ahead | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 87 |
Two years ahead | 2.0 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 84 |
Three years ahead | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 84 |
Five years ahead | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 83 |
2bi) Please assign probabilities to the following rates of annual CPI inflation three years ahead. (a)
Mean probability (%) | |
|---|---|
<=1.00% | 2.4 |
1.01%–1.40% | 4.3 |
1.41%–1.80% | 12.8 |
1.81%–2.20% | 35.8 |
2.21%–2.60% | 25.0 |
2.61%–3.00% | 12.9 |
>3.00% | 6.9 |
2bii) Please assign probabilities to the following rates of annual CPI inflation on average from 5 years ahead to 10 years ahead (ie analogous to the five-year, five-year forward rate). (a)
Mean probability (%) | |
|---|---|
<=1.00% | 2.3 |
1.01%–1.40% | 4.2 |
1.41%–1.80% | 11.4 |
1.81%–2.20% | 37.1 |
2.21%–2.60% | 23.5 |
2.61%–3.00% | 13.7 |
>3.00% | 7.7 |
2c) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for the annual rate of UK GDP growth – conditioned on your Bank Rate expectations (question 1a) – at each of the following time horizons. (a)
25th percentile | 50th percentile | 75th percentile | Number of responses | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 GDP Growth | 1.00 | 1.10 | 1.20 | 85 |
2027 GDP Growth | 1.20 | 1.30 | 1.40 | 84 |
2028 GDP Growth | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.50 | 80 |
Long run (potential) | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.50 | 81 |
2d) The November Monetary Policy Report set out five risks that had been most relevant to the MPC’s recent policy discussions, some of which had informed the two alternative scenarios also set out in the report.
How do you see each of the following risk factors as playing into the balance of risks around the path for Bank Rate over the next 12 months?
Count | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Large downside | Small downside | Little effect | Small upside | Large upside | |
Risks from inflation expectations | 2 | 22 | 11 | 51 | 3 |
Risks from consumption and labour demand | 23 | 52 | 4 | 9 | 1 |
Risks surrounding structural shifts in supply capacity | 1 | 21 | 30 | 34 | 2 |
Risks around the restrictiveness of the monetary policy stance | 7 | 32 | 34 | 14 | 1 |
Global risks | 9 | 36 | 19 | 21 | 4 |
Question 3: Expectations for balance sheet and gilt yields
3a) Please provide the annual reduction in the stock of gilts held in the Asset Purchase Facility, comprising both maturing gilts and gilt sales in initial purchase proceeds terms, that you see as most likely over the following annual review cycles (£ billions). (a)
25th percentile | 50th percentile | 75th percentile | Number of responses | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
October 2026–September 2027 | 40 | 50 | 55 | 75 |
October 2027–September 2028 | 28 | 40 | 50 | 73 |
October 2028–September 2029 | 34 | 35 | 50 | 73 |
October 2029–September 2030 | 28 | 29 | 50 | 71 |
3b) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for the 10-year gilt yield at the following points in the future.
25th percentile | 50th percentile | 75th percentile | Number of responses | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
End-June 2026 | 4.25 | 4.30 | 4.50 | 85 |
End-December 2026 | 4.00 | 4.25 | 4.40 | 83 |
End-June 2027 | 4.00 | 4.15 | 4.30 | 82 |
Question 4: Expectations for exchange rates
4a) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for the level of GBPUSD one year ahead.
25th percentile | 50th percentile | 75th percentile | Number of responses |
|---|---|---|---|
1.3050 | 1.3500 | 1.3800 | 75 |
4b) Please provide your most likely (ie modal) expectation for the level of EURGBP one year ahead.
25th percentile | 50th percentile | 75th percentile | Number of responses |
|---|---|---|---|
0.8698 | 0.8800 | 0.8900 | 75 |
Throughout, the Xth percentile is calculated by ranking the survey responses in ascending order and reporting the response which is ranked in position k where k is (X/100)*(sample size -1) +1. For numeric answers, where k is not an integer (ie this position lies between two responses), the result is interpolated by applying the percentile proportional to the distance between them. Discontinuous answers, such as policy meeting dates, are not interpolated. Instead, the first response which covers at least X% of the sample is reported.